Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 071716 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1116 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2008 .UPDATE... MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60. WITH FAIRLY NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO ONLY WARM ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER WILL SEE MORE WARMING DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO LOWER HOURLY DEW POINTS AS WE HAVE MIXED DOWN SOME LOWER VALUES TO THE SURFACE. UPDATE ALREADY SENT. SCHAUMANN && .DISCUSSION... A VERTICALLY STACKED AND MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CONTROLLING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A COLDER AIRMASS BLANKETING THE REGION HAS RESULTED...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR IS BEING OBSERVED OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING INTO THE 20S. THIS REGION IS ALSO FACILITATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SPEED MAX ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYNOPTIC CYCLONE. THIS BELT OF LIFT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. HOWEVER...INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH ONLY MODEST LIFT SUGGESTS INCREASING CLOUDS AND VIRGA. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. HEADING INTO TONIGHTS PERIOD...I HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES. THE MAV GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR TONIGHT...AND LEANED FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET. THE REASONING BEHIND GOING COOLER LIES WITHIN THE ORIGIN OF TONIGHTS AIRMASS. AGAIN...READINGS OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA ARE WELL INTO THE 20S...THEREFORE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE OZARKS SEEMS REASONABLE. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. MEANWHILE A WAVE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN (VIEWED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL SAT)...WILL PROGRESS EAST AND DIG SOMEWHERE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION. CONFIDENCE WITH HOW THE STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES IS QUITE LOW FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. THE WAVE IS IN A LOCATION NOT SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR STATIONS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. WHAT WE CAN SAY IS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOMETIME BETWEEN THE MONDAY - WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. NO MATTER WHAT MODEL VERIFIES...THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP...AT LEAST FOR NOW. CRAMER && .AVIATION... FOR THE 1200 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...A SFC TROUGH PINWHEELING AROUND STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES TODAY PROVIDING A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME MIXING SHOULD ALLOW SFC WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. DSA && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
