MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1107 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008
 
VALID SEP 16/0000 UTC THRU SEP 19/1200 UTC
 
MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE
TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.



MODEL TRENDS...

...SYSTEM NEARING THE WEST COAST THU-FRI...

THE 00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS SHOW ONLY MINOR DETAIL DIFFS.  THESE RUNS
SHOW A FARTHER SWD TRACK THAN YDAYS 00Z NAM.

...UPPER LOW INITIALLY OFF THE CA COAST...

THE NAM SHOWS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.

...AMPLIFYING TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND LEADING COLD FRONT...

NAM RUNS OVER THE PAST DAY ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MID LVL TROF.  THE
NAM HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SFC FRONT.

...SHRTWV TROF REACHING THE EAST COAST/SOUTHEAST TUE-WED...

WITH THE PORTION OF THE TROF CROSSING THE NORTHEAST THE NAM HAS
BEEN TRENDING WEAKER OVER THE PAST DAY.  00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS SHOW
SIMILAR TIMING THAT IS FASTER THAN YDAYS 00Z NAM.  TO VARYING
DEGREES THE NAM IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE WEAK ENERGY
THAT TRACKS TOWARD THE SERN COAST.  BY F72 LATE THU THE 00Z NAM IS
FARTHER EWD WITH THIS ENERGY COMPARED TO THE 18Z/12Z RUNS. 

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

RAUSCH