MODEL PERFORMANCE STATISTICS

The Environmental Modeling Center continuously monitors its NWP model performance against different performance measures, and against its 'competition' from other global forecast centers.  The following web links offer graphics of these performance measures at various time and space dimensions.  Click on the following links to get to the correct model list:
 
 

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) 5 and 10-day model bias interactive maps NCEP, ECMWF, UKMET, and Navy NOGAPS models
 

GFS:

• GFS Performance 1984-2006 Against Reanalysis
   
  
• Experimental web page on GFS near-surface performance
 
Experimental meteograms for surface and near surface forecast parameters, and verifications of forecast against observations over the U.S.
•  Global model RMS errors and anomaly correlation statistics  (verification against  analyses) for GFS compared to ECWMF, Navy NOGAPS, UKMET
 
Includes scores for extratropics  (500 hPa heights) and tropics (200 hPa and 850 hPa u-v and vector wind), day 5 scores, daily scores, error growth rates, anomaly correlations (with breakdown by size of wave), and other graphics.

•   GFS verified against RAOBS 
• Time series of GFS fit to RAOBS
• GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS  for last 7 days
• spatial bias maps for different regions
• vertical profile bias maps aerially averaged for different regions
• GFS SSI and forecast fits to RAOBS  for calendar months (time series, spatial and vertical bias maps)
• GFS SSI data distribution plots (shows gaps in the initial analysis which may affect model forecast performance)
• GFS SSI data dump counts (how much data was included from each type used in the SSI analysis)  Few or no points may indicate potential problems with model forecast performance.  The type of problems may be anticipated from the type of data excluded.
•   Comparison of GFS output grid data to observations 

 
• Real-Time Operational GFS monthly diagnostics  (verified against analyses)
 
Includes text explaining graphic display of model diagnostics, and monthly diagnostics from October 1998 to last completed month.  Includes diagnostics for dynamical variables:
 
• Zonal Mean Height and Temperature Errors
• Regional Temperature Errors
• Vertical Cross-sections of Temperature Errors
• Temperature Errors and Diabatic Heating
• Regional Height Errors
• Zonal Wind Errors
• Meridional Wind Errors
• Vector Wind Errors
• Vertical Motion Errors
• Horizontal Wind Divergence
• A Measure of the Noise: Squared Divergence
• Forecast Bias In Specific Humidity
and physical processes:
 
• Precipitation
• Surface Air Temperature
• Precipitable Water
• Zonal Surface Stress
• Low Cloud Cover
• Total Cloud Cover
• Evaporation
• Sensible Heat Flux
• Surface Net Shortwave
• Surface Net Heat Flux
.

• Differences of Eta/GFS/NGM from verification (GFS GDAS (FNL))
• Eta Forecast Meteograms

• Precipitation verification:

• Forecast verification (spatial maps) for operational forecast models and parallel Eta runs back to June 1998 (against Stage IV precipitation analysis system).
• Precipitation skill scores for the operational forecast models (back to 1995!!)

• Model forecast verification statistics for tropospheric variables
  
  
• Near-surface verification statistics (2m air temperature, moisture, and 10m winds), comparison to GFS and NGM
  
  

Other models