NOAA
ISSUES UPDATE TO 2004-05 WINTER OUTLOOK
December, January, February Climate Outlook
Nov.
18, 2004 � With winter approaching, NOAA
today issued its final U.S.
winter outlook for December 2004 through February 2005. Forecasters
at the NOAA Climate Prediction
Center predict an enhanced likelihood of cooler-than-average temperatures
in much of the East, Middle Atlantic and South; warmer-than-average
temperatures in Alaska, Hawaii and the West; wetter-than-average conditions
from New Mexico through Texas to Louisiana; and drier-than-average conditions
over the Ohio Valley and the Northwest for this winter. (Click
NOAA image for larger view of 2004-2005 Winter Temperature Outlook.
Click here
for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)
Today's
forecast implies possible improvement in drought conditions in limited
portions of the Southwest and possible worsening dryness in the Northwest
and Ohio Valley regions.
Much
of the focus of what lies behind the forecast is the continuation of
a weak El
Niño event in the tropical Pacific, which NOAA scientists
are closely monitoring. "This event is expected to continue into
early 2005, but remain much weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño
that greatly affected parts of California," said Wayne Higgins,
principal scientist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. (Click
NOAA image for larger view of 2004-2005 Winter Precipitation Outlook.
Click here
for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit “NOAA.”)
"El
Niño wintertime impacts vary over the United States depending
on the strength of the event," said Higgins. Warmer-than-average
conditions are expected in the West, while cooler and wetter-than-average
conditions are expected for portions of the South and Southeast. "This
is consistent with a typical El Niño pattern and has been factored
into NOAA's Winter Outlook," he added.
Regional
Outlook, December through February:
- An enhanced
likelihood of below-average precipitation is expected in Washington
and Oregon, from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley and in Hawaii.
Odds for above-average precipitation are increased from New Mexico
across Texas and southern Oklahoma to Louisiana.
- Above-average
temperatures are more likely in Alaska, Hawaii, the West and the Rockies.
Odds for below-average temperatures are higher-than-average in the
mid-Atlantic Coast States, the southern Ohio Valley, the Tennessee
Valley, the Southeast, the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern sections
of Texas.
- Over
the rest of the continental United States, there are equal chances
for precipitation and temperatures to be above normal, normal or below
normal.
Astronomical
winter begins on December 21, when the noontime sun is farthest south
in the sky in the Northern Hemisphere. However, meteorological winter,
defined by the onset of winter-like weather conditions, occurs earlier
as one moves northward. Meteorological winter, roughly speaking, begins
over much of the continental United States on December 1.
This is
the last U.S. seasonal outlook update for the 2004-05 winter.
NOAA is dedicated
to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction
and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental
stewardship of the nation�s coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part
of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Relevant Web Sites
NOAA Climate Prediction
Center
NOAA
Drought Information Center
El
Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
Weekly
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Update
Most
Recent 2 Months Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Animation
El
Niño and La Niña-related Winter Features over North America
Sea
Surface Temperature Outlook
ENSO
Impacts by Region
NOAA Storm Watch
Get the latest severe weather information across the USA
Media
Contact:
Carmeyia
Gillis, NOAA Climate Prediction
Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163
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