NOAA SAYS EL NIÑO’s DEPARTURE LEAVES SOME WESTERN DROUGHT THIS SPRING, AND FLOODING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST POSSIBLE
At a news conference held today in Washington, D.C., NOAA officials said El Niño’s influence on the nation’s fall and winter precipitation patterns was not enough to alleviate the multi-year drought and serious water supply shortages over much of the Western United States (including parts of Oregon, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Arizona, and New Mexico). However, winter precipitation from El Niño helped wipe out abnormally dry conditions in the East.
For the contiguous U.S., on average the past winter was not unusual as it was the 31st warmest and 58th driest out of the last 109 years, but average conditions were not the norm. For the winter season as a whole, temperatures averaged well above the long-term average from the West Coast into the Upper Midwest, and Alaska had its second warmest year on record (since 1918). In contrast, 27 states in the eastern half of the United States had significantly cooler than average winter temperatures.
Spring
Outlook “The wet fall and winter from eastern Texas to the Ohio Valley and eastward to the Atlantic has already resulted in some flooding this year, and we expect flooding to remain a threat across the area,” said John Jones, deputy assistant administrator of the NOAA National Weather Service. In the Northeast, cold conditions and heavy winter snows set the stage for possible spring flooding. Thick ice on rivers in eastern New York and northern New England could lead to ice jam flooding. If heavy rains combine with rapid snow melt, serious flooding could be possible. The NOAA National Weather Service reported, because the Midwest and northern Plains received considerably less snow than normal, the current focus is on the possibility of drought rather than normal spring snow melt flooding. However, NOAA warns spring rains on frozen soils could still lead to flash flooding. “We urge people not to become complacent. Even during droughts, flooding—deadly flooding—is possible,” said Jones. As a result of precipitation shortfalls from the West into the Midwest, drought and water supply problems loom. In many areas in the West, reservoirs have been drawn down as a result of three or more consecutive dry years. A considerable portion of snow melt from a generally meager mountain snow pack will be absorbed by parched soils, further reducing inflow into reservoirs. Barring unusually heavy precipitation in the next few months, weather and climate forecasters at NOAA predict bleak water supply conditions will affect broad areas in the West this summer. “With El Niño’s influence fading, the major factor this spring is the long term, multi-year water shortages in parts of the West,” said Jones. “The wet season will end in the West in the next several weeks. Afterward, significant widespread precipitation is unlikely until the summer monsoon season or when precipitation typically resumes in the fall of 2003.” NOAA advises spring weather requires the public to stay abreast of the day-to-day weather fluctuations by listening to NOAA Weather Radio and commercial radio and television broadcasts for advisories, watches and warnings to take proper precautions. Spring weather can change quickly—from drought to flash floods. Meteorological spring began on March 1. The vernal equinox is March 21. The 2003 spring outlook is a consolidated effort of the NOAA National Weather Service and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The National Weather Service (including the Climate Prediction Center and the Hydrologic Services Program) is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. The NOAA National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. The NOAA National Climatic Data Center is the nation's primary source of space-based meteorological and climate data. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental stewardship of the nation’s coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part of the U. S. Department of Commerce.
Relevant
Web Sites NOAA Climate Prediction Center NOAA National Climatic Data Center Media
Contact:
|