Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
000 FXUS65 KPUB 211058 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 458 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) WESTERN U.S. UPPER JET ALREADY NOSING INTO COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW -TSRA ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS IN BETWEEN WILL SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS DRIER AIRMASS AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW LIMIT PRECIP. CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 40 KNOT RANGE OVER THE FAR EAST SUGGEST ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER. CURRENT SWODY1 JUST CLIPS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS...SO WILL MENTION ONE OR TWO SEVERE IN THE UPCOMING HWO. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY WITH DEEPER MIXING...CURRENT GRIDS LOOK FINE. SOME CONVECTION COULD LINGER PAST 06Z OVER THE FAR EAST...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOW TO PUSH INTO KANSAS...ELSEWHERE EXPECT MOST STORMS TO DIE TOWARD SUNSET. .LONG TERM... (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES FOR THE LONGER TERM INCLUDE GENERALLY LOW GRADE POPS MONDAY AND THEN BASICALLY AMOUNT OF WARMTH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CWFA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY. AS THE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN OF MONDAY NIGHT GIVES WAY TO UPPER RIDGING FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...EXPECT THAT BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD OCCUR FROM MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION... POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH BASED TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KCOS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...SO ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN OVER THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT...AS CONVECTION PUSHES EAST INTO KS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
