Monthly Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
223 PM MDT TUE SEP 02 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LEADVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5
FEET. IN THE NEXT 120 DAYS THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER
WILL RISE ABOVE 2.5 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 8/28/2008 - 12/25/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
ARKANSAS RIVER
LEADVILLE 5 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6
SALIDA 9 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.2
WELLSVILLE 9 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.0
PARKDALE 9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.1
CANON CITY 9 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0
PORTLAND 9 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.6
PUEBLO 8 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 5.2
AVONDALE 7 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.4
NEPESTA 16.5 12.6 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.9
OLNEY SPRINGS 8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.5
ROCKY FORD 10 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.5
LA JUNTA 10 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.3 8.8 10.2
LAMAR 11 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.7
FOUNTAIN CREEK
COLORADO SPRINGS 8 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3
FOUNTAIN 8 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6
PINON 7 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.9
PUEBLO 10 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3
ST CHARLES RIVER
VINELAND 12 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 5.9
PURGATOIRE RIVER
MADRID 6 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1
TRINIDAD RESERVOIR 10 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 7.1
TRINIDAD 11 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4
LAS ANIMAS 9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.7 5.4 5.7 6.4
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS IN AUGUST WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH VALLEYS WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
PRIMARY OBSERVATION SITES AT COLORADO SPRINGS AND ALAMOSA WERE 0.9
AND 1.4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE PRIMARY SITE IN
PUEBLO WAS 0.7 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN AUGUST...EXCEPT FOR
SPOTTY LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THAT WERE
BELOW AVERAGE. THE PRIMARY SITES AT COLORADO SPRINGS...PUEBLO AND
ALAMOSA WERE ALL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH DEPARTURES OF 0.83...0.49 AND
0.04 INCHES...RESPECTIVELY.
STREAMFLOW WAS GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN AUGUST. SOIL
MOISTURE WAS GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE...WITH POCKETS OF BELOW AVERAGE
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND POCKETS
OF ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE END OF JULY...
OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE. THE ARKANSAS BASIN
REPORTED 72 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE OVERALL. THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN REPORTED 85 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER...OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER...FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING AT...ABOVE OR BELOW
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG
RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.
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