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SCIENCE AND NONSCIENCE CONCERNING HUMAN-CAUSED CLIMATE WARMING
Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 1998. 23: 83-105
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J. D. Mahlman
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/ NOAA, Princeton University,
Princeton, New Jersey 08542
KEY WORDS: mathematical
modeling, greenhouse
warming, public controversy,
infrared trapping,
atmospheric
carbon dioxide
ABSTRACT
The human-caused global warming problem is now the focus of intense international attention in many sectors of society. As we learn more about the science of the problem, the sense of controversy about the state of the science has actually increased, sharply so over the past decade. This essay highlights the fundamental aspects of the science underlying global warming. The vital roles of climate models and of climate data in sharpening scientific understanding are featured. Finally, the roles of controversy in the science and the sociology of this problem are addressed, and new insights are offered on the inevitability of future major conflicts and controversies as society begins to deal with the need to either reduce the use of fossil fuels considerably or adapt to substantial changes in Earth's climate.
CONTENTS
AN OVERVIEW OF THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING
Historical Setting
Some
Fundamental Aspects of Greenhouse Warming Science
WHY CLIMATE MODELS ARE IMPERFECT AND WHY THEY ARE CRUCIAL ANYWAY
WHY CLIMATE DATA ARE IMPERFECT AND WHY THEY ARE CRUCIAL ANYWAY
ROLE OF CONTROVERSY
Context for Controversy
Genuine
Scientific Uncertainty and Disagreement
The
Misuse of Scientific Information
THE KEY ROLE OF "OFFICIAL" ASSESSMENTS
THE EVOLVING REAL GREENHOUSE WARMING CONTROVERSY
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