Though the intention of the ENSO-CLIPER methodology was not to create a superior ENSO forecast, the regressions so far have offered predictions of SST anomalies which have been quite satisfactory and competitive with more sophisticated methodologies (see section 5). Shown in Tables A1 through A5 are the independent predictions (January 1993 - Present) of Niño-4, Niño-3.4, Niño-3, Niño-1+2, and SOI, respectively. This period of ENSO history is very difficult to forecast. Long running warm conditions existed in the eastern equatorial Pacific for most of late 1990 through early 1995. During this period, persistence was a dominant mode. Following a final resurgence of warm conditions in late 1994, cold conditions quickly developed in the later half of 1995. The forecast of ENSO conditions was quite difficult during this period as evidenced by some large errors experienced by other forecast schemes (see Barnston 1994, 1995).
Lead(Seasons) | |||||||||
Date | Obs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
JFM 93 | 0.42 | 0.29 | |||||||
FMA 93 | 0.40 | 0.29 | |||||||
MAM 93 | 0.48 | 0.26 | |||||||
AMJ 93 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.22 | ||||||
MJJ 93 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 0.17 | ||||||
JJA 93 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.28 | ||||||
JAS 93 | 0.66 | 0.86 | 0.55 | -0.14 | |||||
ASO 93 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.07 | |||||
SON 93 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 1.26 | -0.16 | |||||
OND 93 | 0.57 | 0.66 | 1.19 | 0.61 | -0.17 | ||||
NDJ 93 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.86 | 0.93 | 0.24 | ||||
DJF 93 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 1.08 | 0.51 | ||||
JFM 94 | 0.07 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 0.16 | -0.11 | |||
FMA 94 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 0.19 | |||
MAM 94 | 0.18 | -0.06 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.68 | 0.48 | |||
AMJ 94 | 0.35 | 0.02 | 0.25 | -0.03 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.29 | ||
MJJ 94 | 0.56 | 0.20 | -0.01 | -0.03 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.27 | ||
JJA 94 | 0.78 | 0.47 | -0.07 | -0.11 | 0.03 | 0.05 | -0.05 | ||
JAS 94 | 0.90 | 0.60 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.21 | -0.17 | 0.31 | 0.49 | |
ASO 94 | 0.96 | 0.77 | 0.04 | -0.03 | -0.22 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.08 | |
SON 94 | 1.04 | 1.16 | 0.37 | -0.22 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | |
OND 94 | 1.16 | 1.10 | 0.58 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.48 | 0.03 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
NDJ 94 | 1.18 | 0.89 | 0.72 | -0.03 | -0.25 | -0.41 | -0.26 | -0.16 | 0.08 |
DJF 94 | 1.06 | 0.88 | 1.02 | 0.23 | -0.09 | -0.12 | -0.21 | -0.37 | 0.50 |
JFM 95 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.74 | 0.37 | -0.20 | -0.12 | -0.47 | -0.44 | -0.05 |
FMA 95 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.39 | -0.07 | -0.21 | 0.08 | -0.26 | -0.10 |
MAM 95 | 0.58 | 0.73 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.15 | 0.14 | -0.01 | -0.14 | -0.25 |
AMJ 95 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.80 | 0.20 | -0.03 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.05 | -0.21 |
MJJ 95 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.66 | 0.20 | 0.18 | -0.08 | -0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
JJA 95 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.64 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 0.06 | -0.02 | 0.19 | 0.18 |
JAS 95 | 0.04 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.25 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.54 |
ASO 95 | -0.16 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.33 | -0.04 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
SON 95 | -0.29 | -0.05 | 0.27 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
OND 95 | -0.33 | -0.26 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.19 | -0.24 | -0.06 | 0.41 | 0.18 |
NDJ 95 | -0.29 | -0.35 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.59 | -0.27 | -0.30 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
DJF 95 | -0.35 | -0.34 | -0.15 | -0.20 | 0.68 | -0.02 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.52 |
JFM 96 | -0.43 | -0.29 | -0.42 | -0.14 | 0.09 | 0.08 | -0.38 | -0.42 | 0.17 |
FMA 96 | -0.46 | -0.25 | -0.24 | 0.02 | -0.07 | 0.39 | 0.31 | -0.31 | 0.33 |
MAM 96 | -0.35 | -0.34 | -0.25 | 0.05 | -0.13 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 0.26 | 0.15 |
AMJ 96 | -0.20 | -0.23 | -0.18 | -0.28 | -0.14 | 0.26 | 0.49 | 0.20 | -0.20 |
MJJ 96 | -0.11 | -0.20 | -0.07 | -0.23 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.09 |
JJA 96 | -0.01 | -0.14 | -0.15 | -0.14 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.24 | -0.11 |
JAS 96 | 0.02 | -0.14 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.30 | 0.06 | -0.11 | 0.21 | 0.50 |
ASO 96 | 0.03 | -0.02 | -0.12 | -0.02 | -0.22 | -0.08 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
SON 96 | -0.01 | 0.19 | 0.03 | -0.04 | -0.29 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.31 |
OND 96 | 0.01 | 0.09 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -0.48 | -0.32 | -0.20 | 0.20 | |
NDJ 96 | -0.03 | 0.12 | -0.06 | 0.21 | -0.22 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.11 | |
DJF 96 | 0.04 | 0.21 | -0.01 | 0.08 | -0.21 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.29 | |
JFM 97 | 0.21 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0.06 | -0.25 | -0.15 | -0.07 | ||
FMA 97 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.15 | ||
MAM 97 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.24 | -0.01 | 0.15 | 0.21 | ||
AMJ 97 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.16 | -0.05 | |||
MJJ 97 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.10 | |||
JJA 97 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.26 | |||
JAS 97 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.49 | -0.07 | ||||
ASO 97 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | ||||
SON 97 | 0.31 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.68 | ||||
OND 97 | 0.63 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.64 | |||||
NDJ 97 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.10 | |||||
DJF 97 | 0.28 | 0.40 | 0.35 | 0.51 | |||||
JFM 98 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.12 | ||||||
FMA 98 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.42 | ||||||
MAM 98 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.27 | ||||||
AMJ 98 | 0.28 | 0.24 | |||||||
MJJ 98 | 0.25 | 0.10 | |||||||
JJA 98 | 0.19 | -0.02 | |||||||
JAS 98 | 0.14 | ||||||||
ASO 98 | 0.11 | ||||||||
SON 98 | 0.19 |
Lead(Seasons) | |||||||||
Date | OBS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
JFM 93 | 0.29 | 0.17 | |||||||
FMA 93 | 0.54 | 0.13 | |||||||
MAM 93 | 0.87 | 0.20 | |||||||
AMJ 93 | 0.98 | 0.44 | 0.01 | ||||||
MJJ 93 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.19 | ||||||
JJA 93 | 0.45 | 0.95 | 0.31 | ||||||
JAS 93 | 0.33 | 1.29 | 0.70 | -0.18 | |||||
ASO 93 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1.04 | -0.46 | |||||
SON 93 | 0.36 | 0.63 | 1.50 | 0.43 | |||||
OND 93 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 1.46 | 1.11 | -0.33 | ||||
NDJ 93 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.89 | 1.39 | 0.40 | ||||
DJF 93 | 0.03 | 0.35 | 0.31 | 1.51 | 0.49 | ||||
JFM 94 | -0.04 | 0.20 | 0.54 | 1.25 | 0.88 | -0.21 | |||
FMA 94 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 0.25 | 0.52 | 0.77 | 0.31 | |||
MAM 94 | 0.19 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.75 | -0.24 | |||
AMJ 94 | 0.33 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.09 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.10 | ||
MJJ 94 | 0.35 | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.31 | ||
JJA 94 | 0.40 | 0.42 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.54 | ||
JAS 94 | 0.42 | 0.86 | 0.12 | -0.11 | -0.48 | -0.42 | 0.37 | 0.59 | |
ASO 94 | 0.61 | 0.22 | 0.06 | -0.50 | -0.75 | -0.09 | 0.17 | 0.16 | |
SON 94 | 0.86 | 0.51 | 0.50 | -0.32 | -0.67 | -0.35 | -0.22 | 0.83 | |
OND 94 | 1.13 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.25 | -0.25 | -0.81 | -0.75 | 0.49 | 0.11 |
NDJ 94 | 1.21 | 0.83 | 0.88 | -0.26 | -0.33 | -0.52 | -0.39 | -0.56 | 0.33 |
DJF 94 | 1.02 | 1.15 | 0.36 | 0.52 | -0.34 | -0.39 | -0.28 | -0.24 | 0.84 |
JFM 95 | 0.71 | 0.94 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 0.23 | -0.14 | -0.57 | -0.38 | 0.22 |
FMA 95 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.51 | -0.09 | -0.03 | 0.05 | -0.20 | -0.27 |
MAM 95 | 0.23 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.16 | -0.28 | -0.17 | 0.09 | -0.05 |
AMJ 95 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.36 | 0.08 | -0.18 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
MJJ 95 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.74 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
JJA 95 | -0.14 | -0.09 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
JAS 95 | -0.35 | 0.06 | -0.17 | 0.12 | -0.29 | -0.40 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 0.70 |
ASO 95 | -0.63 | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.27 | -0.71 | 0.12 | 0.50 | 0.27 | 0.11 |
SON 95 | -0.82 | -0.30 | -0.05 | 0.52 | -0.44 | -0.38 | 0.25 | 0.66 | 0.43 |
OND 95 | -0.93 | -0.72 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.07 | -0.63 | -0.72 | 0.55 | 0.11 |
NDJ 95 | -0.88 | -0.96 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.81 | -0.36 | -0.47 | 0.09 | 0.49 |
DJF 95 | -0.88 | -0.73 | -0.08 | -0.07 | 0.58 | 0.34 | -0.01 | 0.29 | 0.74 |
JFM 96 | -0.74 | -0.59 | -0.48 | -0.09 | 0.09 | 0.10 | -0.43 | -0.06 | 0.59 |
FMA 96 | -0.57 | -0.39 | -0.44 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.53 | 0.26 | -0.25 | 0.28 |
MAM 96 | -0.36 | -0.50 | -0.17 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.37 | -0.02 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
AMJ 96 | -0.23 | -0.18 | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.07 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.22 | 0.14 |
MJJ 96 | -0.15 | -0.21 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.46 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 0.15 |
JJA 96 | -0.12 | -0.22 | 0.14 | -0.18 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.26 | -0.18 |
JAS 96 | -0.13 | -0.32 | 0.29 | 0.00 | -0.37 | -0.13 | -0.15 | 0.16 | 0.63 |
ASO 96 | -0.26 | -0.16 | -0.18 | 0.00 | -0.57 | -0.08 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.12 |
SON 96 | -0.30 | -0.19 | 0.22 | 0.19 | -0.43 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 |
OND 96 | -0.15 | -0.23 | 0.59 | 0.04 | -0.47 | -0.26 | -0.31 | 0.14 | |
NDJ 96 | -0.34 | 0.05 | -0.03 | 0.37 | -0.14 | -0.10 | 0.05 | 0.18 | |
DJF 96 | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.19 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.37 | |
JFM 97 | -0.10 | -0.12 | 0.49 | 0.09 | -0.33 | -0.08 | -0.24 | ||
FMA 97 | -0.13 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.07 | ||
MAM 97 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.06 | -0.11 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 0.28 | ||
AMJ 97 | 0.31 | 0.21 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.14 | |||
MJJ 97 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.14 | |||
JJA 97 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 0.33 | |||
JAS 97 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.62 | -0.09 | ||||
ASO 97 | 0.37 | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.01 | 0.10 | ||||
SON 97 | 0.59 | 0.43 | 0.61 | 0.78 | 0.87 | ||||
OND 97 | 0.62 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.11 | |||||
NDJ 97 | 0.46 | 0.78 | 0.45 | 0.20 | |||||
DJF 97 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.84 | |||||
JFM 98 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.37 | ||||||
FMA 98 | 0.46 | 0.34 | 0.25 | ||||||
MAM 98 | 0.41 | 0.23 | 0.40 | ||||||
AMJ 98 | 0.23 | 0.14 | |||||||
MJJ 98 | 0.13 | 0.14 | |||||||
JJA 98 | 0.16 | 0.24 | |||||||
JAS 98 | 0.24 | ||||||||
ASO 98 | 0.09 | ||||||||
SON 98 | 0.21 |
Lead(Seasons) | |||||||||
Date | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
JFM 93 | 0.25 | -0.05 | |||||||
FMA 93 | 0.65 | 0.08 | |||||||
MAM 93 | 1.03 | 0.22 | |||||||
AMJ 93 | 1.09 | 0.66 | 0.22 | ||||||
MJJ 93 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.25 | ||||||
JJA 93 | 0.30 | 0.96 | 0.40 | ||||||
JAS 93 | 0.10 | 1.17 | 0.67 | -0.65 | |||||
ASO 93 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.84 | -0.73 | |||||
SON 93 | 0.23 | 0.50 | 1.42 | 0.42 | |||||
OND 93 | 0.26 | 0.61 | 1.79 | 0.79 | -0.41 | ||||
NDJ 93 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.98 | 1.30 | -0.35 | ||||
DJF 93 | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 1.47 | 0.47 | ||||
JFM 94 | -0.04 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 1.09 | 0.40 | -0.19 | |||
FMA 94 | -0.20 | -0.14 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.28 | |||
MAM 94 | -0.08 | -0.38 | -0.07 | 0.12 | 0.57 | 0.12 | |||
AMJ 94 | -0.01 | -0.16 | -0.33 | -0.32 | -0.25 | 0.08 | 0.11 | ||
MJJ 94 | -0.05 | -0.35 | -0.24 | -0.13 | -0.19 | -0.10 | 0.14 | ||
JJA 94 | -0.21 | 0.00 | -0.32 | -0.58 | -0.17 | -0.27 | 0.05 | ||
JAS 94 | -0.25 | 0.58 | -0.13 | -0.52 | -0.64 | -0.58 | -0.06 | 0.07 | |
ASO 94 | 0.10 | -0.41 | -0.33 | -1.14 | -0.73 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 | |
SON 94 | 0.51 | 0.34 | 0.46 | -0.39 | -0.92 | -0.39 | -0.39 | 0.06 | |
OND 94 | 0.84 | 0.63 | 0.94 | 0.00 | -0.28 | -0.76 | -0.57 | 0.44 | 0.10 |
NDJ 94 | 0.91 | 0.67 | 1.02 | 0.10 | -0.58 | -0.37 | -0.30 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
DJF 94 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.58 | 0.53 | -0.29 | -0.64 | -0.03 | -0.15 | 0.13 |
JFM 95 | 0.52 | 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 0.10 | -0.10 | -0.40 | 0.03 | 0.39 |
FMA 95 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.45 | -0.03 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.20 |
MAM 95 | -0.22 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.47 | 0.14 | -0.03 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
AMJ 95 | -0.33 | -0.06 | 0.49 | -0.30 | -0.36 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
MJJ 95 | -0.32 | 0.20 | 0.85 | -0.08 | -0.22 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
JJA 95 | -0.37 | -0.74 | 0.50 | -0.13 | 0.34 | -0.35 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.09 |
JAS 95 | -0.57 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.31 | -0.46 | -0.56 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
ASO 95 | -0.76 | -0.19 | -0.68 | -0.17 | -0.80 | 0.10 | 0.53 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
SON 95 | -0.85 | -0.44 | -0.08 | 0.50 | -0.42 | -0.42 | 0.05 | 0.26 | 0.38 |
OND 95 | -0.85 | -0.45 | -0.04 | 0.29 | 0.00 | -0.61 | -0.20 | 0.51 | 0.10 |
NDJ 95 | -0.77 | -0.80 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 0.69 | -0.41 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 0.13 |
DJF 95 | -0.64 | -0.66 | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.54 | -0.41 | 0.55 | 0.28 | 0.35 |
JFM 96 | -0.42 | -0.41 | -0.28 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.08 | -0.28 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
FMA 96 | -0.43 | -0.21 | -0.25 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.45 | 0.54 |
MAM 96 | -0.42 | -0.23 | 0.04 | 0.13 | -0.04 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
AMJ 96 | -0.50 | 0.04 | 0.25 | -0.15 | -0.15 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
MJJ 96 | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.12 |
JJA 96 | -0.34 | -0.38 | 0.13 | -0.13 | 0.45 | -0.05 | -0.09 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
JAS 96 | -0.35 | -0.41 | 0.16 | -0.28 | -0.45 | -0.24 | -0.11 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
ASO 96 | -0.42 | -0.18 | -0.55 | -0.25 | -0.43 | -0.14 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
SON 96 | -0.46 | -0.49 | 0.18 | 0.15 | -0.48 | 0.15 | 0.04 | -0.12 | 0.31 |
OND 96 | -0.45 | -0.41 | 0.20 | 0.01 | -0.43 | -0.47 | -0.29 | 0.12 | |
NDJ 96 | -0.39 | -0.06 | -0.23 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.09 | |
DJF 96 | -0.29 | -0.23 | 0.25 | 0.22 | -0.36 | 0.38 | 0.17 | -0.06 | |
JFM 97 | -0.15 | 0.24 | 0.33 | 0.09 | -0.23 | -0.46 | -0.35 | ||
FMA 97 | -0.09 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.13 | 0.04 | -0.06 | ||
MAM 97 | 0.08 | 0.13 | -0.04 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.13 | ||
AMJ 97 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.12 | |||
MJJ 97 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.11 | |||
JJA 97 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.60 | 0.07 | |||
JAS 97 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ||||
ASO 97 | 0.33 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 0.11 | 0.06 | ||||
SON 97 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.80 | ||||
OND 97 | 0.57 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.10 | |||||
NDJ 97 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 1.05 | 0.21 | |||||
DJF 97 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.53 | |||||
JFM 98 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.36 | ||||||
FMA 98 | 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.44 | ||||||
MAM 98 | 0.25 | 0.11 | 0.11 | ||||||
AMJ 98 | 0.10 | 0.10 | |||||||
MJJ 98 | 0.09 | 0.10 | |||||||
JJA 98 | 0.13 | 0.06 | |||||||
JAS 98 | 0.04 | ||||||||
ASO 98 | 0.05 | ||||||||
SON 98 | 0.16 |
Lead(Seasons) | |||||||||
Date | OBS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
JFM 93 | 0.31 | -0.28 | |||||||
FMA 93 | 0.78 | -0.12 | |||||||
MAM 93 | 0.94 | 0.54 | |||||||
AMJ 93 | 0.89 | 0.96 | -0.56 | ||||||
MJJ 93 | 0.65 | 1.12 | -0.58 | ||||||
JJA 93 | 0.38 | 0.81 | 0.52 | ||||||
JAS 93 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.64 | -0.68 | |||||
ASO 93 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 0.38 | -0.28 | |||||
SON 93 | 0.13 | 0.80 | 1.45 | 0.41 | |||||
OND 93 | -0.06 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.60 | -0.36 | ||||
NDJ 93 | -0.18 | -0.12 | 0.37 | 0.69 | 0.05 | ||||
DJF 93 | -0.16 | -0.11 | 0.22 | 0.93 | 0.21 | ||||
JFM 94 | -0.30 | -0.79 | -0.31 | 0.35 | -0.01 | -0.27 | |||
FMA 94 | -0.66 | -0.81 | -0.55 | -0.13 | -0.05 | -0.05 | |||
MAM 94 | -0.95 | -0.79 | -1.27 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | |||
AMJ 94 | -0.79 | -0.92 | -1.72 | -0.63 | -0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
MJJ 94 | -0.55 | -0.52 | -1.28 | -1.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.49 | ||
JJA 94 | -0.61 | -0.69 | -0.70 | -1.15 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | ||
JAS 94 | -0.63 | 0.02 | -0.61 | -1.55 | -0.79 | -0.63 | -0.30 | 0.05 | |
ASO 94 | -0.25 | -0.11 | -0.54 | -0.26 | -0.55 | -0.32 | -0.29 | 0.06 | |
SON 94 | 0.38 | 0.19 | -0.01 | -0.38 | -0.80 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.72 | |
OND 94 | 0.83 | 0.41 | 0.69 | -0.06 | -0.22 | -0.47 | -0.12 | 0.42 | 0.07 |
NDJ 94 | 0.89 | 0.52 | 0.45 | -0.09 | -0.18 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 0.04 |
DJF 94 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.47 | 0.28 | -0.09 | -0.23 | 0.05 | -0.35 | -0.21 |
JFM 95 | 0.43 | 0.12 | -0.65 | 0.36 | 0.00 | -0.21 | -0.01 | -0.41 | 0.20 |
FMA 95 | -0.21 | -0.12 | -0.79 | -0.18 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.06 |
MAM 95 | -0.76 | 0.23 | -0.52 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
AMJ 95 | -0.83 | 0.22 | -0.69 | -1.13 | -0.48 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.05 | 0.03 |
MJJ 95 | -0.59 | -1.04 | -0.28 | -1.59 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
JJA 95 | -0.46 | -1.07 | 0.04 | -0.76 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
JAS 95 | -0.36 | -0.04 | 0.04 | -0.89 | -0.95 | -0.60 | 0.34 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
ASO 95 | -0.38 | -0.19 | -0.47 | 0.34 | -0.43 | -0.37 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
SON 95 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -0.70 | 0.49 | -0.29 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 0.44 |
OND 95 | -0.37 | -0.13 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 0.12 | -0.30 | -0.19 | 0.41 | 0.07 |
NDJ 95 | -0.39 | -0.48 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 0.03 |
DJF 95 | -0.25 | -0.53 | 0.27 | -0.09 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.03 |
JFM 96 | -0.11 | -0.29 | -0.09 | -0.14 | -0.01 | -0.10 | -0.02 | -0.11 | 0.19 |
FMA 96 | -0.50 | -0.29 | -0.35 | 0.32 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0.52 |
MAM 96 | -0.82 | -0.10 | -0.28 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
AMJ 96 | -1.20 | 0.16 | -0.23 | 0.51 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.01 |
MJJ 96 | -1.14 | -1.45 | -0.18 | -0.12 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
JJA 96 | -1.17 | -0.58 | 0.49 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
JAS 96 | -1.10 | -0.87 | 0.14 | -0.10 | -0.15 | -0.28 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
ASO 96 | -0.89 | -0.86 | -0.55 | 0.28 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.22 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
SON 96 | -0.93 | -0.74 | -0.12 | 0.15 | -0.47 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.41 |
OND 96 | -0.71 | -0.66 | 0.10 | -0.15 | -0.37 | -0.81 | -0.23 | 0.08 | |
NDJ 96 | -0.56 | -0.59 | -0.09 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 | |
DJF 96 | -0.64 | -0.22 | 0.08 | 0.08 | -0.30 | -0.16 | -0.01 | -0.21 | |
JFM 97 | -0.22 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.70 | ||
FMA 97 | -0.18 | 0.19 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.31 | ||
MAM 97 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.04 | -0.04 | |||
AMJ 97 | -0.17 | 0.06 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.59 | -0.01 | |||
MJJ 97 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 0.05 | |||
JJA 97 | -0.11 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | |||
JAS 97 | 0.14 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||
ASO 97 | 0.03 | 0.27 | -0.82 | 0.04 | 0.04 | ||||
SON 97 | 0.44 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.82 | 0.78 | ||||
OND 97 | 0.36 | -0.32 | 0.26 | 0.07 | |||||
NDJ 97 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.79 | 0.04 | |||||
DJF 97 | 0.11 | -0.06 | 0.27 | 0.00 | |||||
JFM 98 | -0.01 | 0.16 | 0.19 | ||||||
FMA 98 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.39 | ||||||
MAM 98 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.06 | ||||||
AMJ 98 | 0.26 | -0.04 | |||||||
MJJ 98 | 0.01 | 0.03 | |||||||
JJA 98 | 0.00 | 0.01 | |||||||
JAS 98 | 0.02 | ||||||||
ASO 98 | 0.02 | ||||||||
SON 98 | 0.11 |
Lead(Seasons) | |||||||||
Date | OBS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
JFM 93 | -1.20 | -0.53 | |||||||
FMA 93 | -1.33 | -0.66 | |||||||
MAM 93 | -1.10 | -0.29 | |||||||
AMJ 93 | -1.20 | -0.16 | 0.17 | ||||||
MJJ 93 | -1.03 | -0.73 | 0.48 | ||||||
JJA 93 | -1.33 | -1.20 | 0.09 | ||||||
JAS 93 | -1.13 | -1.68 | -0.68 | 0.38 | |||||
ASO 93 | -1.26 | -1.30 | -1.20 | 0.20 | |||||
SON 93 | -0.83 | -0.94 | -1.63 | -0.34 | |||||
OND 93 | -0.57 | -0.93 | -1.19 | -0.61 | 0.13 | ||||
NDJ 93 | -0.17 | -0.80 | -1.21 | -1.08 | 0.12 | ||||
DJF 93 | -0.13 | -0.27 | -0.82 | -1.56 | -0.44 | ||||
JFM 94 | -0.60 | -0.21 | -0.38 | -1.57 | -0.93 | 0.24 | |||
FMA 94 | -1.10 | -0.19 | -0.80 | -1.07 | -1.00 | -0.42 | |||
MAM 94 | -1.40 | 0.07 | 0.01 | -0.19 | -0.91 | -0.82 | |||
AMJ 94 | -1.23 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.20 | -0.38 | -0.52 | ||
MJJ 94 | -1.23 | 0.24 | 0.70 | 0.57 | -0.13 | -0.04 | -0.04 | ||
JJA 94 | -1.60 | -0.53 | 0.57 | -0.10 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | ||
JAS 94 | -1.80 | -1.25 | 0.03 | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.03 | -0.49 | -0.47 | |
ASO 94 | -1.73 | -1.39 | -0.14 | 0.72 | 0.21 | 0.34 | -0.30 | -0.07 | |
SON 94 | -1.36 | -1.46 | -1.00 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.43 | 0.13 | -0.08 | |
OND 94 | -1.30 | -1.46 | -1.01 | -0.21 | 0.07 | 0.43 | -0.02 | -0.13 | -0.13 |
NDJ 94 | -0.97 | -1.42 | -1.20 | 0.15 | 0.72 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.57 | -0.15 |
DJF 94 | -0.90 | -0.75 | -1.31 | -0.60 | -0.05 | 0.03 | 0.40 | 0.07 | -0.20 |
JFM 95 | -0.33 | -1.31 | -0.86 | -1.01 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.19 | -0.04 | 0.22 |
FMA 95 | -0.47 | -1.39 | -0.51 | -1.09 | 0.03 | 0.19 | -0.08 | 0.20 | 0.46 |
MAM 95 | -0.53 | -0.90 | -0.42 | -0.47 | -0.15 | -0.20 | 0.12 | -0.14 | 0.03 |
AMJ 95 | -0.67 | -0.58 | -0.35 | -0.33 | 0.21 | -0.35 | -0.11 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
MJJ 95 | -0.20 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 0.16 | -0.06 | -0.06 | -0.38 | -0.07 |
JJA 95 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 | -0.13 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.41 | -0.12 |
JAS 95 | 0.17 | -0.09 | -0.34 | -0.09 | 0.27 | 0.26 | -0.49 | 0.21 | -0.08 |
ASO 95 | 0.00 | -0.09 | -0.11 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.38 | -0.68 | -0.10 | -0.86 |
SON 95 | 0.03 | -0.11 | 0.06 | -0.46 | 0.06 | 0.24 | 0.23 | -0.10 | -0.46 |
OND 95 | -0.37 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.24 | -0.28 | 0.11 | 0.12 | -0.98 | -0.14 |
NDJ 95 | 0.03 | 0.36 | -0.11 | -0.15 | 0.33 | 0.19 | -0.34 | -0.13 | -0.15 |
DJF 95 | 0.00 | 0.30 | -0.15 | -0.07 | -0.58 | -0.14 | 0.48 | 0.24 | -0.20 |
JFM 96 | 0.53 | 0.25 | 0.63 | -0.16 | -0.35 | -0.11 | 0.31 | -0.01 | -0.24 |
FMA 96 | 0.37 | -0.02 | 0.49 | -0.20 | -0.27 | -0.95 | -0.59 | 0.25 | -0.30 |
MAM 96 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.08 | -0.43 | -0.50 | -0.17 | 0.11 |
AMJ 96 | 0.53 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 0.12 | -0.48 | -0.11 | -0.11 |
MJJ 96 | 0.57 | 0.28 | 0.67 | 0.44 | -0.05 | -0.09 | -0.09 | 0.00 | -0.10 |
JJA 96 | 0.70 | -0.08 | 0.03 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.44 | -0.15 |
JAS 96 | 0.57 | 0.50 | -0.13 | 0.08 | 0.41 | 0.88 | 0.26 | 0.14 | -0.12 |
ASO 96 | 0.47 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 0.45 | -0.01 | 0.35 | -0.08 | -0.14 | -0.14 |
SON 96 | 0.27 | 0.04 | -0.06 | -0.18 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.10 | -0.13 | -0.42 |
OND 96 | -0.02 | 0.31 | -0.18 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.63 | 0.16 | -0.17 | |
NDJ 96 | -0.02 | -0.32 | -0.05 | -0.28 | -0.01 | -0.08 | 0.50 | -0.17 | |
DJF 96 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.28 | -0.29 | 0.26 | -0.10 | 0.08 | -0.22 | |
JFM 97 | -0.04 | -0.43 | -0.45 | -0.19 | -0.28 | 0.66 | 0.40 | ||
FMA 97 | -0.30 | -0.37 | -0.12 | -0.37 | 0.17 | -0.22 | 0.30 | ||
MAM 97 | -0.34 | -0.29 | -0.08 | -0.61 | -0.22 | -0.18 | 0.01 | ||
AMJ 97 | -0.35 | -0.17 | -0.18 | -0.53 | -0.13 | -0.13 | |||
MJJ 97 | -0.29 | -0.31 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.31 | -0.10 | |||
JJA 97 | -0.15 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.14 | -0.69 | -0.14 | |||
JAS 97 | -0.43 | 0.25 | -0.30 | -0.34 | -0.11 | ||||
ASO 97 | -0.41 | -0.93 | -0.74 | -0.14 | -0.69 | ||||
SON 97 | -0.58 | -0.55 | -0.14 | -0.12 | -0.91 | ||||
OND 97 | -0.47 | 0.08 | -0.05 | -0.17 | |||||
NDJ 97 | -0.50 | -0.07 | -0.42 | -0.17 | |||||
DJF 97 | -0.49 | -0.55 | -0.24 | -0.21 | |||||
JFM 98 | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.00 | ||||||
FMA 98 | -0.71 | -0.51 | -0.56 | ||||||
MAM 98 | -0.48 | -0.16 | -0.18 | ||||||
AMJ 98 | -0.11 | -0.11 | |||||||
MJJ 98 | -0.08 | -0.09 | |||||||
JJA 98 | -0.16 | -0.13 | |||||||
JAS 98 | -0.09 | ||||||||
ASO 98 | -0.17 | ||||||||
SON 98 | -0.20 |
Examination of these few actual independent forecasts shows that the statistical estimates of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) from hindcast results has been quite accurate, though slightly underestimating independent RMSE values. For example, the RMSE values for Niño-3.4 for lead times zero through seven are 0.33, 0.54, 0.72, 0.77, 0.74, 0.74, 0.77, and 0.79, respectively. These are lower than the RMSE values generated by persistence for the zero through two leads which are 0.36, 0.61, 0.78, 0.99, 0.86, 0.87, 0.86, and 0.91, respectively. After lead two, the ENSO-CLIPER RMSE values are 10-40 percent smaller than those for persistence. All forecasts seem to exhibit similar error patterns with the largest errors during the early summer of the 1994 warm event which followed warm conditions in 1993. The probable cause of the increase in overall RMSE was likely the non-climatological nature of the 1993-1994 period when warm conditions persisted. The errors of these schemes tend to be biennial in nature as expected for the dominant time scale of variation of the ENSO phenomenon.