CFS Report To Congress - September 1997

This commercial feasibility study (CFS) report examines the economics of bringing high-speed ground transportation (HSGT) to well-populated groups of cities throughout the United States. The intention is to draw nationwide-not corridor-specific-conclusions from projections of the likely investment needs, operating performance, and benefits of HSGT in a set of illustrative corridors in several regions. Although useful collectively, these case studies cannot substitute for the more detailed, State- and privately-sponsored analyses of specific corridors that would be prerequisite to HSGT implementation.

Complete CFS Report (PDF format)

CFS report by chapter:

CHAPTER 1 :  BACKGROUND

Congressional interest in HSGT dates back at least to 1965, with the passage of the High Speed Ground Transportation Act. This legislation, initially authorized at $90 million, started a Federal effort to develop, and demonstrate where possible, contemporary and advanced HSGT technologies. Under the HSGT Act, the Office of High-Speed Ground Transportation of the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) introduced modern HSGT to America in 1969 by deploying the self-propelled Metroliner cars and the Turbotrain in Northeast Corridor revenue service.

CHAPTER 2 :  HSGT IN ITS INTERMODAL CONTEXT

This chapter defines HSGT and explains why it merits consideration as a viable passenger transport option in congested intercity corridors.

• DEFINITION OF HSGT
  
• IMPETUS FOR HSGT
  • Air Transportation
  • Highway Transportation
  • Summary: The Intermodal Context

CHAPTER 3 :  ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

This chapter compares and contrasts two interlinked types of projection data, shows how they drew support from the various analytical components, demonstrates how they were synthesized in the concept of "partnership potential," and introduces the illustrative cases that provided a basis for the report's results and conclusions. Subsequent chapters describe the assumptions underpinning the work (Chapter 4) and the methodologies for each component (Chapters 5 and 6).

• HSGT PROJECTION TYPES
  
• ANALYTICAL COMPONENTS AND THEIR USES
  • System Requirements and Performance
  • Comparisons of Benefits and Costs
    
• PARTNERSHIP POTENTIAL DEFINED
  
• ADDITIONAL MEASURES OF PARTNERSHIP POTENTIAL
  • Financial Measures
  • Benefit/Cost Measures
    
• CASES
  • Technologies
  • Corridors
  • Matrix of Cases

CHAPTER 4 :  GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS

The key assumptions affecting the results of this study fall into three categories: financial, economic, and transportation-related. This chapter presents all three groups of general assumptions.

• FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS
  
• NATIONAL TRENDS
  
• THE TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENT
  • Scope of Transportation
  • Trends in Other Modes
  • HSGT System Concept Assumptions

CHAPTER 5 :  METHODOLOGY—SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS AND PERFORMANCE

This chapter presents the methodologies and specific assumptions for the analysis of system requirements and performance of the HSGT cases. The four main analytical components are capital investments, travel demand and revenues, operating and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and ancillary activities.

• CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
  • Initial Investments
  • Continuing Investments
  • Areas of Uncertainty in Capital Cost Projections
    
• TRAVEL DEMAND AND REVENUES
  • Overview
  • Step 1: Project Existing Modes Without HSGT
  • Step 2: Apply Diversion Models
  • Step 3: Develop Induced Demand
  • Steps 4 and 5: Total Demand and Transportation Revenue
    
• OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE EXPENSES
  • Maintenance of Way
  • Maintenance of Equipment
  • Transportation
  • Passenger Traffic and Services
  • General and Administrative Expenses
    
• ANCILLARY ACTIVITIES
  • Categories of Ancillary Activities
  • Analytical Treatment

CHAPTER 6 :  METHODOLOGY COMPARISONS OF BENEFITS AND COSTS

Chapter 3 describes the rationale for going beyond purely commercial considerations to compare the range of benefits and costs attributable to HSGT systems. The present chapter describes the methodologies on which the benefit/cost comparisons are based.

• TYPES OF BENEFIT/COST COMPARISONS
  
• "TOTAL BENEFITS" AND "OTHER IMPACTS"
  
• USERS' CONSUMER SURPLUS
  
• BENEFITS TO THE PUBLIC AT LARGE
  • Airport Congestion Delay Savings
  • Highway Congestion Delay Savings
  • Emissions Savings
    
• OTHER IMPACTS: BACKGROUND INFORMATION
  • Transportation Items
  • Economic Development Items
  • Environmental/Energy Items

CHAPTER 7 :  RESULTS

This chapter synthesizes, by topic, the results of the projections. It covers not only system requirements and performance but also benefits and costs, and treats all the illustrative corridors except for the Empire and Southeast examples, which the analysis regarded as Northeast Corridor extensions and which receive special treatment in Chapter 8.

• SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS AND PERFORMANCE
  • Investment Requirements
  • Demand and Revenues
  • Operating and Maintenance Expenses
  • Synthesis: Investments and Operating Results
    
• BENEFIT/COST COMPARISONS
  • Total Benefits Versus Total Costs
  • Benefits to HSGT Users Versus Costs Borne by Users
  • Benefits to the Public at Large Versus Publicly-Borne Costs

CHAPTER 8 :  SPECIALIZED ANALYSES

This chapter presents the results of specialized analyses that offer further insights into the economics and partnership potential of HSGT for America in the 21st century. Specifically, the following sections delve into these questions: - What happens when an HSGT corridor is extended to a new terminus? - What happens when "hybrid" HSGT cases, involving more than one technology, are simulated? - And finally-what happens when key assumptions are altered?

• EXTENSIONS OF HSGT
  • Traffic Base
  • Extensions of Existing Accelerail Service in the Northeast Corridor
  • New HSR and Maglev Systems
    
• "HYBRID" CORRIDORS
  
• SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
  • Operating and Maintenance Expenses
  • Low-Fare Air Service

CHAPTER 9 :  CONCLUSIONS

The study results suggest that States should consider HSGT along with other options for improving intercity passenger transportation.

• SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS AND PERFORMANCE
  
• COMPARISON OF BENEFITS AND COSTS
  
• IMPORTANCE OF PARTNERSHIPS AND STATE ROLES

GLOSSARY OF SELECTED TERMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

STATISTICAL SUPPLEMENT

STATISTICAL SUPPLEMENT TABLES