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Hurricane Isabel (2003)
GFDL/NOAA Hurricane Isabel Forecast Animation
This animation illustrates a three-dimensional view of Hurricane Isabel approaching the East Coast of the United States. Results were obtained from a 99-hour forecast made at 8:00am, September 15th using the dynamical Hurricane Prediction System developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Hurricane Isabel, which struck the Outer Banks of North Carolina on September 19th, 2003, caused extensive damage over a large area of the mid-Atlantic coast stretching from North Carolina to northern Virginia.
The animation displays the 350K isosurface (light-colored sheet) of "equivalent potential temperature", which measures the combined effects of heat and moisture and is therefore a fundamental quantity of hurricanes, a heat engine-like phenomena dependent on warm, moist tropical oceans and cumulus heating. The white arrows indicate wind speed and direction near the earth's surface.
As the hurricane's strong winds move across the ocean the cooler waters from below are brought up to the surface resulting in significant decrease in the sea surface temperature. Since the 2000 hurricane season this effect has been included in the operational GFDL model, by coupling the atmospheric model to the Princeton Ocean Model. This effect can clearly be seen in the animation, with a wake of cooler waters trailing the storm, indicated by the blue colors. Inclusion of the ocean coupling is important for the hurricane model to properly forecast the storm's intensity.
Since 1995, the GFDL model has provided forecast guidance of track and intensity for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. In 2003, the model's vertical resolution and physics was significantly upgraded and the forecast guidance has been extended out to 5 days. So far this season, the improved GFDL model has out-preformed all other computer guidance.
| Coupled Model Forecast | Coupled Model Relative Humidity |
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An animation in 2 formats is available above. |
An animation of the Coupled Model's |
| GOES Infra-Red Tracking (CONUS) | GOES Infra-Red Tracking (Atlantic) |
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GOES satellite imagery animation of Continental U.S. |
GOES satellite imagery animation of U.S. Atlantic coast. |
| Model | |
| Model Name: | GFDL |
| Environment | |
| Data Size: | 2.9 Gb |
| Computer: | N/A |
| Runtime: | N/A |
| Domain | |
| Model Grid: | 66x66x42 |
| Sea Surface Temp. Grid: | 450x450 |
| Project | |
| Scientists: | Morris Bender |
| Date Created: | Sept. 2003 |
| Visualization | |
| Personnel: | John Sheldon
Hans Vahlenkamp Remik Ziemlinski |
| Software: | Iris Explorer
MediaConvert Illustrator |