This is the accessible text file for CG Presentation number GAO-08-
720CG entitled 'Working to Improve Accountability in an Evolving 
Environment' which was released on April 18, 2008. 

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United States Government Accountability Office: 
GAO: 

Working to Improve Accountability in an Evolving Environment: 

2008 Maryland Association of CPAs’ Government and Not-for-Profit 
Conference: 

College Park, MD: 
April 18, 2008: 

Gene L. Dodaro: 
Acting Comptroller General of the United States: 

GAO-08-720CG: 

Presentation Outline: 

* Current and emerging fiscal challenges: 

* Auditing and advising in a time of transition: 

* Challenges and opportunities for the accountability community: 

[End of section] 

Current and Emerging Fiscal Challenges: 

Composition of Federal Spending: 

[See PDF for image] 

There are three pie charts, containing the following compositions of 
spending by category: 

Year: 1967;
Defense: 45%;
Social Security: 14%; 
Medicare and Medicaid: 2%; 
Net Interest: 7%; 
All Other: 32%. 

Year: 1987;
Defense: 28%;
Social Security: 21%; 
Medicare and Medicaid: 10%; 
Net Interest: 14%; 
All Other: 27%. 

Year: 2007;
Defense: 20%;
Social Security: 21%; 
Medicare and Medicaid: 21%; 
Net Interest: 9%; 
All Other: 29%. 

Source: Office of Management and Budget and the Department of the 
Treasury. 

Note: Numbers may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. 

[End of figure]

Federal Spending for Mandatory and Discretionary Programs (Trends and 
Projections): 

[See PDF for image] 

Year: 1962; 
Mandatory: 26%; 
Discretionary: 67%; 
Net Interest: 6%; 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1963; 
Mandatory: 25%; 		
Discretionary: 68%; 
Net Interest: 7%; 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1964; 
Mandatory: 26%; 
Discretionary: 67%; 
Net Interest: 7%; 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1965; 
Mandatory: 27%; 
Discretionary: 66%; 
Net Interest: 7%; 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1966; 
Mandatory: 26%; 
Discretionary: 67%; 
Net Interest: 7%; 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1967; 
Mandatory: 26%; 
Discretionary: 68%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1968; 
Mandatory: 28%; 
Discretionary: 66%; 
Net Interest: 6%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1969; 
Mandatory: 29%; 
Discretionary: 64%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1970; 
Mandatory: 31%; 
Discretionary: 62%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1971; 
Mandatory: 35%; 
Discretionary: 58%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1972; 
Mandatory: 38%; 
Discretionary: 56%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1973; 
Mandatory: 40%; 
Discretionary: 53%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1974; 
Mandatory: 41%; 
Discretionary: 51%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1975; 
Mandatory: 45%; 
Discretionary: 48%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1976; 
Mandatory: 46%; 
Discretionary: 47%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1977; 
Mandatory: 45%; 
Discretionary: 48%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1978; 
Mandatory: 45%; 
Discretionary: 48%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1979; 
Mandatory: 44%; 
Discretionary: 48%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1980; 
Mandatory: 44%; 
Discretionary: 47%; 
Net Interest: 9%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1981; 
Mandatory: 44%; 
Discretionary: 45%; 
Net Interest: 10%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1982; 
Mandatory: 45%; 
Discretionary: 44%; 
Net Interest: 11%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1983; 
Mandatory: 45%; 
Discretionary: 44%; 
Net Interest: 11%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1984; 
Mandatory: 42%; 
Discretionary: 45%; 
Net Interest: 13%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1985; 
Mandatory: 42%; 
Discretionary: 44%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1986; 
Mandatory: 42%; 
Discretionary: 44%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1987; 
Mandatory: 42%; 
Discretionary: 44%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1988; 
Mandatory: 42%; 
Discretionary: 44%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1989; 
Mandatory: 42%; 
Discretionary: 43%; 
Net Interest: 15%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1990; 
Mandatory: 45%; 
Discretionary: 40%; 
Net Interest: 15%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1991; 
Mandatory: 45%; 
Discretionary: 40%; 
Net Interest: 15%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1992; 
Mandatory: 47%; 
Discretionary: 39%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1993; 
Mandatory: 48%; 
Discretionary: 38%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1994; 
Mandatory: 49%; 
Discretionary: 37%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1995; 
Mandatory: 49%; 
Discretionary: 36%; 
Net Interest: 15%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1996; 
Mandatory: 51%; 
Discretionary: 34%; 
Net Interest: 15%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1997; 
Mandatory: 51%; 
Discretionary: 34%; 
Net Interest: 15%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1998; 
Mandatory: 52%; 
Discretionary: 33%; 
Net Interest: 15%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 1999; 
Mandatory: 53%; 
Discretionary: 33%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2000; 
Mandatory: 53%; 
Discretionary: 34%; 
Net Interest: 12%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2001; 
Mandatory: 54%; 
Discretionary: 35%; 
Net Interest: 11%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2002; 
Mandatory: 55%; 
Discretionary: 37%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2003; 
Mandatory: 55%; 
Discretionary: 38%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2004; 
Mandatory: 54%; 
Discretionary: 39%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2005; 
Mandatory: 53%; 
Discretionary: 39%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2006; 
Mandatory: 53%; 
Discretionary: 38%; 
Net Interest: 9%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2007; 
Mandatory: 53%; 
Discretionary: 38%; 
Net Interest: 9%. 
Total: 100%. 

[Note: Years 2008 - 2018 are CBO's January 2008 projections]

Year: 2008; 
Mandatory: 54%; 
Discretionary: 38%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2009; 
Mandatory: 55%; 
Discretionary: 37%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2010; 
Mandatory: 55%; 
Discretionary: 36%; 
Net Interest: 9%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2011; 
Mandatory: 56%; 
Discretionary: 35%; 
Net Interest: 9%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2012; 
Mandatory: 56%; 
Discretionary: 35%; 
Net Interest: 9%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2013; 
Mandatory: 57%; 
Discretionary: 35%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2014; 
Mandatory: 58%; 
Discretionary: 34%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2015; 
Mandatory: 59%; 
Discretionary: 33%; 
Net Interest: 8%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2016; 
Mandatory: 61%; 
Discretionary: 32%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2017; 
Mandatory: 62%; 
Discretionary: 32%; 
Net Interest: 6%. 
Total: 100%. 

Year: 2018; 
Mandatory: 63%; 
Discretionary: 31%; 
Net Interest: 6%. 
Total: 100%. 

[Note: figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding]

Sources: Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget 
Office. 

[End of figure] 

Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Spending as a Percent of GDP 
(Current and Projected): 

[See PDF for image] 

This is a line graph with three stacked lines (Social Security, 
Medicaid, and Medicare). The vertical axis represents Percent of GDP 
and the horizontal axis represents fiscal years 2008 through 2080. 
The following data is depicted: 

2008: 
Social Security: 4.32; 
Medicaid: 1.5; 
Medicare: 3.236; 
Total: 9.056.

2009:	
Social Security: 4.35; 
Medicaid: 1.525; 
Medicare: 3.277; 
Total: 9.152.

2010:	
Social Security: 4.39; 
Medicaid: 1.6; 
Medicare: 3.323; 
Total: 9.313. 

2011:	
Social Security: 4.44;	
Medicaid: 1.6; 
Medicare: 3.367; 
Total: 9.407.

2012:	
Social Security: 4.52; 
Medicaid: 1.625; 
Medicare: 3.446; 
Total: 9.591.

2013:	
Social Security: 4.61; 
Medicaid: 1.7; 
Medicare: 3.568; 
Total: 9.878.

2014:	
Social Security: 4.7; 
Medicaid: 1.725; 
Medicare: 3.618; 
Total: 10.043.

2015:	
Social Security: 4.8; 
Medicaid: 1.825; 
Medicare: 3.713; 
Total: 10.338.

2016:	
Social Security: 4.9; 
Medicaid: 1.9; 
Medicare: 3.819; 
Total: 10.619.

2017:	
Social Security: 5.01; 
Medicaid: 1.925;  
Medicare: 3.967; 
Total: 10.902.

2018:	
Social Security: 5.1; 
Medicaid: 1.962; 
Medicare: 4.122; 
Total: 11.184.

2019:	
Social Security: 5.2; 
Medicaid: 2.002; 
Medicare: 4.281; 
Total: 11.483.

2020:	
Social Security: 5.3; 
Medicaid: 2.044; 
Medicare: 4.445; 
Total: 11.789.

2021:	
Social Security: 5.39; 
Medicaid: 2.087; 
Medicare: 4.616; 
Total: 12.093.

2022:	
Social Security: 5.48; 
Medicaid: 2.133; 
Medicare: 4.797; 
Total: 12.41.

2023: 	
Social Security: 5.56; 
Medicaid: 2.181; 
Medicare: 4.982; 
Total: 12.723.		

2024:	
Social Security: 5.64; 
Medicaid: 2.231; 
Medicare: 5.166; 
Total: 12.976.

2025:	
Social Security: 5.71; 
Medicaid: 2.284; 
Medicare: 5.351; 
Total: 13.345. 

2026:	
Social Security: 5.78; 
Medicaid: 2.338; 
Medicare: 5.537; 
Total: 13,655.

2027:	
Social Security: 5.84; 
Medicaid: 2.395; 
Medicare: 5.725; 
Total: 13.96.

2028:	
Social Security: 5.9; 
Medicaid: 2.45; 
Medicare: 5.910; 
Total: 14.26.

2029:	
Social Security: 5.95; 
Medicaid: 2.506; 
Medicare: 6.088; 
Total: 14.544.

2030:	
Social Security: 6; 
Medicaid: 2.564; 
Medicare: 6.258 
Total: 14.882.

2031:	
Social Security: 6.03; 
Medicaid: 2.622; 
Medicare: 6.417;  
Total: 15.069.

2032:	
Social Security: 6.06; 
Medicaid: 2.681; 
Medicare: 6.568; 
Total: 15.309.

2033:	
Social Security: 6.08; 
Medicaid: 2.741; 
Medicare: 6.716; 
Total: 15.537.

2034:	
Social Security: 6.09; 
Medicaid: 2.802; 
Medicare: 6.681; 
Total: 15.573.

2035:	
Social Security: 6.09; 
Medicaid: 2.86; 
Medicare: 7.003; 
Total: 15.953.

2036:	
Social Security: 6.09;  
Medicaid: 2.92; 
Medicare: 7.142; 
Total: 16.152. 

2037:	
Social Security: 6.08; 
Medicaid: 2.978; 
Medicare: 7.268; 
Total: 16.326. 

2038:	
Social Security: 6.06
Medicaid: 3.038; 
Medicare: 7.380; 
Total: 16.478. 

2039:	
Social Security: 6.04
Medicaid: 3.095; 
Medicare: 7.484; 
Total: 16.619. 

2040:	
Social Security: 6.02; 
Medicaid: 3.151; 
Medicare: 7.583; 
Total: 16.754. 

2041:	
Social Security: 5.99; 
Medicaid: 3.205; 
Medicare: 7.676; 
Total: 16.871. 

2042:	
Social Security: 5.97; 
Medicaid: 3.26; 
Medicare: 7.764; 
Total: 16.994. 

2043: 
Social Security: 5.94; 
Medicaid: 3.311; 
Medicare: 7.848; 
Total: 17.099. 

2044:	
Social Security: 5.92; 
Medicaid: 3.365; 
Medicare: 7.930; 
Total: 17.215. 

2045:	
Social Security: 5.89; 
Medicaid: 3.417; 
Medicare: 8.013; 
Total: 17.32. 

2046:	
Social Security: 5.87; 
Medicaid: 3.471; 
Medicare: 8.095; 
Total: 17.436. 

2047:	
Social Security: 5.85; 
Medicaid: 3.521; 
Medicare: 8.174; 
Total: 17.545. 

2048:	
Social Security: 5.84; 
Medicaid: 3.572; 
Medicare: 8.249; 
Total: 17.661. 

2049:	
Social Security: 5.82; 
Medicaid: 3.62; 
Medicare: 8.323; 
Total: 17.763. 

2050:	
Social Security: 5.81; 
Medicaid: 3.666; 
Medicare: 8.397; 
Total: 17.873. 

2051:	
Social Security: 5.8; 
Medicaid: 3.71; 
Medicare: 8.472; 
Total: 17.982. 

2052:	
Social Security: 5.79; 
Medicaid: 3.753; 
Medicare: 8.546; 
Total: 18.089. 

2053:	
Social Security: 5.78; 
Medicaid: 3.798; 
Medicare: 8.619; 
Total: 18.197. 

2054:	
Social Security: 5.78; 
Medicaid: 3.841; 
Medicare: 8.697; 
Total: 18.318. 

2055:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 3.885; 
Medicare: 8.781; 
Total: 18.436. 

2056:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 3.93; 
Medicare: 8.869; 
Total: 18.569.  

2057:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 3.974; 
Medicare: 8.956; 
Total: 18.7. 

2058:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.02; 
Medicare: 9.042; 
Total: 18.832. 

2059:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.061; 
Medicare: 9.126;  
Total: 18.957. 

2060:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.106; 
Medicare: 9.209; 
Total: 19.085. 

2061:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.151; 
Medicare: 9.292; 
Total: 19.213. 

2062:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.193; 
Medicare: 9.374; 
Total: 19.337. 

2063:	
Social Security: 5.76; 
Medicaid: 4.237; 
Medicare: 9.456; 
Total: 19.453. 

2064:	
Social Security: 5.76; 
Medicaid: 4.282; 
Medicare: 9.539;  
Total: 19.581. 

2065:	
Social Security: 5.76; 
Medicaid: 4.329; 
Medicare: 9.625;  
Total: 19.714. 

2066:	
Social Security: 5.76; 
Medicaid: 4.376; 
Medicare: 9.709;  
Total: 19.845. 

2067:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.442; 
Medicare: 9.789; 
Total: 20.001. 

2068:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.469; 
Medicare: 9.867;  
Total: 20.106. 

2069:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.516; 
Medicare: 9.946;  
Total: 20.232. 

2070:	
Social Security: 5.77; 
Medicaid: 4.562;  
Medicare: 10.025;  
Total: 20.582. 

2071:	
Social Security: 5.78; 
Medicaid: 4.605; 
Medicare: 10.100; 
Total: 20.485.  

2072:	
Social Security: 5.78; 
Medicaid: 4.651; 
Medicare: 10.170;  
Total: 20.601. 

2073:	
Social Security: 5.78; 
Medicaid: 4.693; 
Medicare: 10.240;  
Total: 20.713. 

2074:	
Social Security: 5.79; 
Medicaid: 4.738; 
Medicare: 10.309;  
Total: 20.837. 

2075:	
Social Security: 5.79; 
Medicaid: 4.784; 
Medicare: 10.377;  
Total: 20.951. 

2076:	
Social Security: 5.79; 
Medicaid: 4.827; 
Medicare: 10.442;  
Total: 21.059. 

2077:	
Social Security: 5.8; 
Medicaid: 4.87; 
Medicare: 10.505;  
Total: 21.205. 

2078:	
Social Security: 5.8; 
Medicaid: 4.915; 
Medicare: 10.567;  
Total: 21.282. 

2079:	
Social Security: 5.81; 
Medicaid: 4.955; 
Medicare: 10.627;  
Total: 21.392. 

2080:	
Social Security: 5.81; 
Medicaid: 4.995; 
Medicare: 10.686; 
Total: 21.491.  

Source: GAO analysis of data from the Office of the Chief Actuary, 
Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary, Centers for 
Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the Congressional Budget Office. 

Note: Social Security and Medicare projections based on the 
intermediate assumptions of the 2008 Trustees’ Reports. Medicaid 
projections based on CBO’s January 2008 short-term Medicaid estimates 
and CBO’s December 2007 long-term Medicaid projections adjusted to 
reflect excess cost growth consistent with the 2008 Trustees 
intermediate assumptions.

[End of graph] 

Table: Major Fiscal Exposures ($ trillions):

Explicit liabilities (Publicly held debt, Military & civilian pensions 
& retiree health, Other): 
2000: $6.9; 
2007: $10.8; 
Percent increase: 57.

Commitments & contingencies (e.g., PBGC, undelivered orders):
2000: $0.5;
2007: $1.1; 
Percent increase: 97. 

Implicit exposures: 
2000: $13.0; 
2007: 40.8; 
Percent increase: 197. 

Implicit exposures: Future Social Security benefits: 
2000: $3.8; 
2007: $6.8. 

Implicit exposures: Future Medicare benefits: 
2000: $9.2; 
2007: $34.1. 

Total, 2000: $20.4; 
Total, 2006: $52.7; 
Percent increase: 158. 

Source: 2000 and 2007 Financial Report of the United States Government. 

Note: Totals and percent increases may not add due to rounding. 
Estimates for Social Security and Medicare are at present value as of 
January 1 of each year and all other data are as of September 30. 

[End of table]

Table: Perspective on Fiscal Burden: 

This fiscal burden can be translated and compared as follows: 

Total: major fiscal exposures: $52.7 trillion; 
Total household net worth[1]: $58.6 trillion; 
Burden/Net worth ratio: 90 percent; 
Burden[2]: per person: $175,000; 
Burden[2]: per full-time worker: $410,000; 
Burden[2]: per household: $455,000; 
Income: Median household income[3]: $48,201; 
Income: Disposable personal income per capita[4]: $33,253. 

Source: GAO analysis. 

Notes: (1) Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts, Table B.100, 
2007:Q3 (December 6, 2007); (2) Burdens are calculated using estimated 
total U.S. population as of 10/1/2007, from the U.S. Census Bureau; 
full-time workers reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in NIPA 
table 6.5D (Aug. 1, 2007); and households reported by the U.S. Census 
Bureau, in Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United 
States: 2006(Aug. 2007); (3) U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and 
Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006(Aug. 2007); and 
(4) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, table 2, 
(Nov. 29, 2007). 

[End of table] 

Potential Fiscal Outcomes Under Alternative Simulation; Revenues and 
Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP: 

[See PDF for image] 

This is a line/stacked bar graph with one line (revenue) and four 
stacked bars containing four spending items (Net interest, Social 
Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and All other spending). The vertical 
axis represents Percent of GDP and the horizontal axis represents 
fiscal years 2007, 2018, 2030, and 2040. 

The following data is depicted: 

Fiscal year 2007: 
Net interest: 1.7%; 
Social Security: 4.3%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 4.1%; 
All other spending: 9.9%; 
Revenue: 18.8%.

Fiscal year 2018: 
Net interest: 2.5%; 
Social Security: 4.9%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 5.9%; 
All other spending: 9.7%; 
Revenue: 17.9%.

Fiscal year 2030: 
Net interest: 5.2%; 
Social Security: 6.3%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 8.3%; 
All other spending: 9.7%; 
Revenue: 18.6%. 

Fiscal year 2040: 
Net interest: 9.2%; 
Social Security: 6.6%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 10.1%; 
All other spending: 9.7%; 
Revenue: 18.6%. 

Source: GAO’s January 2008 analysis. 

Note: Discretionary spending grows with GDP after 2008. AMT exemption 
amount is retained at the 2007 level through 2018 and expiring tax 
provisions are extended. After 2018, revenue as a share of GDP returns 
to its historical level of 18.3 percent of GDP plus expected revenues 
from deferred taxes, i.e. taxes on withdrawals from retirement 
accounts. Medicare spending is based on the Trustees April 2007 
projections adjusted for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 
alternative assumption that physician payments are not reduced as 
specified under current law. 

[End of graph] 

Debt Held by the Public as a Share of GDP (1797-2007)[Expressed as a 
percent of GNP/GDP]: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is  a graph illustrating the debt held by the public as a 
share of GDP(1797-2007). The vertical axis of the graph represents 
percent of GNP/GDP from 0 to 120. The horizontal axis of the graph 
represents years from 1797 to 2007. The following data is depicted: 

Year: 1797; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 24.1. 

Year: 1800; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 22.2. 

Year: 1810; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 10.2. 

Year: 1820; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 12.3. 

Year: 1830; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 4.3. 

Year: 1840; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 0.4. 

Year: 1850; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 3.

Year: 1860; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 2.2. 

Year: 1870; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 32.2. 

Year: 1880; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 18. 

Year: 1890; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 8. 

Year: 1900; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 6.6. 

Year: 1910; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 3.5. 

Year: 1920; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 27.1. 

Year: 1930; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 17.6. 

Year: 1940; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 44.2. 

Year: 1950; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 80.2. 

Year: 1960; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 45.7. 

Year: 1970; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 28; 

Year: 1980; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 26.1; 

Year: 1990: 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 42. 

Year: 1991; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 45.3. 

Year: 1992; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 48.1. 

Year: 1993; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 49.4. 

Year: 1994; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 49.3. 

Year: 1995; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 49.2. 

Year: 1996; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 48.5. 

Year: 1997; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 46.1. 

Year: 1998; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 43.1; 

Year: 1999; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 39.8. 

Year: 2000; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 35.1. 

Year: 2001; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 33. 

Year: 2002; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 34.1. 

Year: 2003; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 36.2. 

Year: 2004; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 37.3. 

Year: 2005; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 37.4. 

Year: 2006; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 37.0. 

Year: 2007; 
Percent of GNP/GDP: 36.8. 

Note: Data until 1929 are shown as a percent of gross national product 
(GNP); data from 1930 to present are shown as a percent of GDP.  

Source: GAO analysis of data from the Department of Commerce, Office of 
Management and Budget, and Congressional Budget Office. 

[End of figure] 

Debt Held by the Public Under GAO’s Alternative Simulation: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is a line graph. The vertical axis of the graph represents 
percent of GDP from 0 to 200. The horizontal axis of the graph 
represents fiscal years from 2000 through 2040. The following data is 
depicted: 

Fiscal year: 2000; 
Percent of GDP: 35.122; 

Fiscal year: 2001; 
Percent of GDP: 32.999. 

Fiscal year: 2002; 
Percent of GDP: 34.113. 

Fiscal year: 2003; 
Percent of GDP: 36.223. 

Fiscal year: 2004; 
Percent of GDP: 37.34. 

Fiscal year: 2005; 
Percent of GDP: 37.504. 

Fiscal year: 2006; 
Percent of GDP: 37.082. 

Fiscal year: 2007; 
Percent of GDP: 36.832. 

Fiscal year: 2008; 
Percent of GDP: 37.121. 

Fiscal year: 2009; 
Percent of GDP: 37.837. 

Fiscal year: 2010; 
Percent of GDP: 38.855. 

Fiscal year: 2011; 
Percent of GDP: 40.155. 

Fiscal year: 2012; 
Percent of GDP: 41.453. 

Fiscal year: 2013; 
Percent of GDP: 43.447. 

Fiscal year: 2014; 
Percent of GDP: 45.441. 

Fiscal year: 2015; 
Percent of GDP: 47.761. 

Fiscal year: 2016; 
Percent of GDP: 50.451. 

Fiscal year: 2017; 
Percent of GDP: 53.225. 

Fiscal year: 2018; 
Percent of GDP: 56.215. 

Fiscal year: 2019; 
Percent of GDP: 59.37. 

Fiscal year: 2020; 
Percent of GDP: 62.629. 

Fiscal year: 2021; 
Percent of GDP: 66.253. 

Fiscal year: 2022; 
Percent of GDP: 70.241. 

Fiscal year: 2023; 
Percent of GDP: 74.69. 

Fiscal year: 2024; 
Percent of GDP: 79.526. 

Fiscal year: 2025; 
Percent of GDP: 84.735. 

Fiscal year: 2026; 
Percent of GDP: 90.378. 

Fiscal year: 2027; 
Percent of GDP: 96.359. 

Fiscal year: 2028; 
Percent of GDP: 102.777. 

Fiscal year: 2029; 
Percent of GDP: 109.522. 

Fiscal year: 2030; 
Percent of GDP: 116.586. 

Fiscal year: 2031; 
Percent of GDP: 124.058. 

Fiscal year: 2032; 
Percent of GDP: 131.828. 

Fiscal year: 2033; 
Percent of GDP: 139.988. 

Fiscal year: 2034; 
Percent of GDP: 148.433. 

Fiscal year: 2035; 
Percent of GDP: 157.094. 

Fiscal year: 2036; 
Percent of GDP: 166.117. 

Fiscal year: 2037; 
Percent of GDP: 175.396. 

Fiscal year: 2038; 
Percent of GDP: 185.012. 

Fiscal year: 2039; 
Percent of GDP: 194.758. 

Fiscal year: 2040; 
Percent of GDP: 204.774. 

Source: GAO's January 2008 analysis. 

[End of figure] 

Foreign Ownership Share of Federal Debt Held by the Public Has 
Increased: 

[See PDF for image] 

There are two pie charts, containing the following compositions of 
federal debt by category: 

1996: Total Debt held by the public: $3.73 trillion; 
Domestic investors and state and local governments: 62%;
Foreign and international investors: 28%; 
Federal Reserve: 10%. 

2007: Total Debt held by the public: $5.04 trillion; 
Domestic investors and state and local governments: 40%;
Foreign and international investors: 45%; 
Federal Reserve: 15%. 

Source: Department of the Treasury. 

Note: Totals and percent increases may not add due to rounding. 

[End of graph] 

Combined Government Fiscal Challenge: 

[See PDF for image] 

This is a line graph with two lines (Federal Surplus/Deficit and 
Combined Surplus/Deficit). The vertical axis represents Percent of GDP 
from -20 to +5 and the horizontal axis represents fiscal years 2000 
through 2050. 

The following data is depicted: 

Fiscal year: 2000: 		
Federal Surplus/Deficit: 2.4;  
Combined Surplus/Deficit: 2.141.

Fiscal year: 2001: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: 1.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: 0.596.

Fiscal year: 2002: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -2.624.

Fiscal year: 2003: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.577. 

Fiscal year: 2004: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.516. 

Fiscal year: 2005: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.389.

Fiscal year: 2006: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: - 2.677. 

Fiscal year: 2007: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -1.8. 

Fiscal year: 2008: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -2.2. 

Fiscal year: 2009: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -2.6.

Fiscal year: 2010: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.2.

Fiscal year: 2011: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.5. 

Fiscal year: 2012: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.8
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.5. 

Fiscal year: 2013: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4. 

Fiscal year: 2014: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.3. 

Fiscal year: 2015: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.5. 

Fiscal year: 2016: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -4.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.9. 

Fiscal year: 2017: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -4.4; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -5.2. 

Fiscal year: 2018: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -4.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -5.7. 

Fiscal year: 2019: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -5.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -6.1. 

Fiscal year: 2020: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -5.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -6.6. 

Fiscal year: 2021: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -6.1; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -7.2. 

Fiscal year: 2022: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -6.7; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -7.8. 

Fiscal year: 2023: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -7.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -8.4. 

Fiscal year: 2024: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -7.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -9.2. 

Fiscal year: 2025: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -8.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -9.9. 

Fiscal year: 2026: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -10.6. 

Fiscal year: 2027: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -9.7; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -11.3. 

Fiscal year: 2028: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -10.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -12. 

Fiscal year: 2029: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -10.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -12.7. 

Fiscal year: 2030: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -11.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -13.4. 

Fiscal year: 2031: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -12.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -14.2. 

Fiscal year: 2032: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -12.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -14.9. 

Fiscal year: 2033: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -13.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit:-15.7. 

Fiscal year: 2034: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -14.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -16.6. 

Fiscal year: 2035: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -14.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -17.3. 

Fiscal year: 2036: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -15.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -18.1. 

Fiscal year: 2037: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -16.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -18.9. 

Fiscal year: 2038: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -16.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -19.7. 

Fiscal year: 2039: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -17.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -20.5. 

Fiscal year: 2040: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -18.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -21.3. 

Fiscal year: 2041: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -19; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -22.1. 

Fiscal year: 2042: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -19.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -23. 

Fiscal year: 2043: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -20.4; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -23.8. 

Fiscal year: 2044: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -21.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -24.6. 

Fiscal year: 2045: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -21.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -25.5. 

Fiscal year: 2046: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -22.7; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -26.4. 

Fiscal year: 2047: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -23.4; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -27.2. 

Fiscal year: 2048: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -24.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -28.1. 

Fiscal year: 2049: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -24.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit:- 29. 

Fiscal year: 2050: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -25.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -29.9. 

Source: Historical data from National Income and Product Accounts, GAO 
Analysis. 

Note: Historical data from 2000–2006, projections from 2007–2050; state 
and local balance measure is similar to the federal unified budget 
measure. Federal Simulation Assumptions: Discretionary spending grows 
with GDP after 2007. AMT exemption amount is retained at the 2006 level 
through 2017 and expiring tax provisions are extended. After 2017, 
revenue as a share of GDP returns to its historical level of 18.3 
percent of GDP plus expected revenues from deferred taxes, i.e. taxes 
on withdrawals from retirement accounts. Medicare spending is based on 
the Trustees’ April 2007 projections adjusted for the Centers for 
Medicare and Medicaid Services’ alternative assumption that physician 
payments are not reduced as specified under current law.

[End of graph] 

Consumer Debt Has Increased as a Share of GDP (1960-2007): 

[See PDF for image] 
	
Year: 1960; 
Percent of GDP: 11.6356. 

Year: 1965; 
Percent of GDP: 13.5572. 

Year: 1970; 
Percent of GDP: 12.8705. 

Year: 1975; 
Percent of GDP: 12.635. 

Year: 1980; 
Percent of GDP: 12.8353. 

Year: 1985; 
Percent of GDP: 14.4675. 

Year: 1990; 
Percent of GDP: 14.206. 

Year: 1995; 
Percent of GDP: 15.7909. 

Year: 2000; 
Percent of GDP: 17.7373. 

Year: 2001; 
Percent of GDP: 18.681. 

Year: 2002; 
Percent of GDP: 19.1024. 

Year: 2003; 
Percent of GDP: 19.1991. 

Year: 2004; 
Percent of GDP: 18.9922. 

Year: 2005; 
Percent of GDP: 18.6093. 

Year: 2006; 
Percent of GDP: 18.3275. 

Year: 2007; 
Percent of GDP: 18.4241. 

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

[End of figure] 

Personal Saving Has Declined as a Share of GDP (1960-2007): 

[See PDF for image] 

Year: 1960; 
Percent of GDP: 5.072. 

Year: 1965; 
Percent of GDP: 5.98. 

Year: 1970; 
Percent of GDP: 6.692. 

Year: 1975; 
Percent of GDP: 7.666. 

Year: 1980; 
Percent of GDP: 7.22. 

Year: 1985; 
Percent of GDP: 6.635. 

Year: 1990; 
Percent of GDP: 5.159. 

Year: 1995; 
Percent of GDP: 3.392. 

Year: 2000; 
Percent of GDP: 1.716. 	

Year: 2001; 
Percent of GDP: 1.306. 

Year: 2002; 
Percent of GDP: 1.764. 

Year: 2003; 
Percent of GDP: 1.596. 

Year: 2004; 
Percent of GDP: 1.555. 

Year: 2005; 
Percent of GDP: 0.359. 

Year: 2006; 
Percent of GDP: 0.294. 

Year: 2007; 
Percent of GDP: 0.308. 

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

[End of figure] 

GAO’s Range of Tools to Educate: Fiscal Sustainability and Government 
Budgeting: 

GAO’s reports focus on: 

* The long-term fiscal outlook. 

* The urgency and importance of fiscal stewardship. 

* Understanding basic budgeting concepts. 

* Deciphering the consolidated financial statement. 

[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/]

[End of section] 

Auditing and Advising in a Time of Transition: 

Upcoming Transitions: 

This November: 

* A new president will be elected—the first time since 1952 that there 
is neither an incumbent President nor Vice President running for 
office. 

* Every House seat and a third of all Senate seats are up for election. 

* Eleven states and two territories will be holding gubernatorial 
elections. 

Presidential Transition Act: 

Enacted in 1964 for an orderly transfer of executive power. 

Provides federal funding for: 

* Office space; 

* Equipment; 

* Payment of salaries and travel expenses for transition teams. 

Presidential Transition Act: Funding and Knowledge Transfer: 

To address potential conflicts of interest and appearance, the 
President-elect and Vice President-elect agree to: 

* Disclose all non-federal funding received for the transition; 

* Make available to GSA and GAO such information for auditing purposes; 

* Disclose publicly the names and recent employment history of all 
transition personnel and sources of funding. 

In 2000, amendments recognized the importance of GAO briefings for 
incoming officials. 

GAO’s Evolving Strategy to Serve the Congress and the Nation: 

* Continue identifying major risks, 21st century challenges, and 
opportunities; 

* Press forward on key management reforms; 

* Sustain attention on the nation’s long-term fiscal imbalance. 

GAO’s High-Risk Program: 

* Covers four areas: 
- Broad-based transformations; 
- Federal contracting; 
- Tax law administration; 
- Insurance and benefit programs; 

* Provides impetus for government-wide reform; 

* Promotes sustained congressional attention; 

* Influences the President’s management agenda. 

Broad-based Transformations: Government-Wide: 

* Strategic human capital management; 

* Managing federal real property; 

* Protecting the federal government’s information systems and the 
nation’s critical infrastructures; 

* Financing the nation’s transportation system; 

* Ensuring the effective protection of technologies critical to U.S. 
national security interests; 

* Transforming federal oversight of food safety. 

Broad-based Transformations: Agency-Specific: 

* Implementing and transforming DHS and establishing appropriate and 
effective information-sharing mechanisms; 

* DOD’s approach to business transformation; 

* FAA’s air traffic control modernization; 

* The 2010 Census. 

DOD Business Transformation: 

DOD’s approach to business transformation includes multiple high-risk 
areas: 

* Weapons system acquisition; 
* Personnel security clearance program; 
* Support infrastructure management; 
* Financial management; 
* Supply chain management; 
* Business systems modernization. 

2010 Census: 

Long-standing deficiencies and emerging challenges with the Census 
include: 

* Shortcomings in managing information technology; 

* Uncertainty of cost estimates; 

* The elimination of several dress rehearsal activities. 

Remaining High-Risk Areas: 

Federal Contracting: 
* DOD, DOE, and NASA contract management; 
* Interagency contracting. 

Tax Law Administration: 
* Tax law enforcement; 
* IRS’ business systems modernization. 

Insurance and Benefit Programs: 
* Federal disability programs’ modernization; 
* PBGC Single-Employer Pension Insurance Program; 
* Medicare and Medicaid; 
* National Flood Insurance Program. 

Removing High-Risk Designations: 

The following factors contribute to GAO’s decision to remove an area 
from our list: 

* Demonstrated top leadership commitment; 

* Capacity (people and resources); 

* Action plan; 

* Meaningful progress that is sustainable; 

* Monitoring and validation procedures. 

Adding High Risk Areas: 

* Substantial federal dollars at risk; 

* National significance; 

* Key management function; 

* Inherent risk or systemic problem; 

* Qualitative and quantitative factors (e.g., public health or safety 
and/or national security or defense). 

Decisions made with awareness of IG work and results. 

Examples of CG Forums Addressing 21st Century Challenges: 

* Global Competitiveness and Higher Education; 
* Federal Financial Management Improvement Act; 
* Financial Sustainability and Health Care; 
* Financial Markets; 
* National Transportation Policy; 
* Risk Management; 
* Disability Policies & Programs; 
* Tax Gap; 
* Environmental Accounting; 
* Defense Acquisitions; 
* Older Workers; 
* CMO/COO Concept. 

[End of section] 

Challenges and Opportunities for the Accountability Community: 

U.S. Government Consolidated Financial Statements: 

Positive Developments: 

* GAO issued first unqualified opinion on the fiscal year 2007 
Consolidated Statement of Social Insurance. 

* In February 2008, Treasury and OMB issued the first-ever "Citizens’ 
Guide" summary report of the U.S. government: [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2007financialreport.html]. 

Major impediments: 

* Serious financial management problems at DOD.  

* Inability to adequately account for and reconcile intra-governmental 
activity and balances. 

* Ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial 
statements. 

Maintain Efforts to Achieve CFO Act Goals: 

* Continue attention on individual audited financial statements and 
performance and accountability results; 

* 19 of 24 received clean opinions for FY 2007—up from 6 in 1996; 

* Work needed on certain key federal entities. 

Long-Standing Financial Management Systems Issues: 

A recent CG Forum on improving financial management systems highlighted 
several key issues: 

* Many agency systems do not comply with FFMIA requirements; 

* Agencies struggle with modernization efforts; 

* Not enough emphasis on the needs of program managers. 

The final Forum report was released this past Wednesday: [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-447SP]. 

Why Improving Financial Literacy is Important: 

Financial literacy is important for three key reasons: 

* The number and complexity of financial products have grown 
tremendously; 

* Technological advances have increased the capacity for targeted 
marketing to consumers; 

* Workers today are increasingly responsible for managing their own 
retirement savings. 

Ensuring that Americans have the knowledge and skills to manage their 
money wisely is key to improving the economic health of our nation. 

GAO’s Efforts to Increase Financial Literacy: 

* Discussing the fiscal condition in GAO reports, speeches, and 
presentations; 

* Hosting a Comptroller General Forum on Financial Literacy in November 
2004 [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-93SP]; 

* Reporting and testifying on the progress of the Financial Literacy 
and Education Commission [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
bin/getrpt?GAO-07-100] and [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
bin/getrpt?GAO-07-777T]; 

* Supporting the efforts of the AICPA’s 360°of Financial Literacy 
Campaign. 

Additional Considerations for the Accountability Community: 

* Estimates of improper payments are rising, but progress is being 
made: 
- Continued support by states needed as federal agencies develop or 
refine estimation methodologies for state-administered federal 
programs; 

* Implementation and use of managerial cost accounting varies by 
agency; 

* Persistent single audit quality problems affect grants management and 
accountability. 

[End of presentation] 

On the Web: 

Web site: [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cghome.htm]. 

Contact: 
Chuck Young, Managing Director, Public Affairs: 
YoungC1@gao.gov: 
(202) 512-4800: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street NW, Room 7149: 
Washington, D.C. 20548: 

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