Usefel Pages

*Time Series plotting page
Has defintion of indices, values and the ability to plot and analyze time series
*Correlation
Calculates linear correlation between various teleconnections and atmospheric/ocean variables
*Composites
Plots atmospheric variables which can be partitioned by phase of teleconnection index
*Forecasts of teleconnection indices
Forecasts of daily teleconnection indices based on a forecast model.
Non-CDC sites
*Teleconnections from CPC
Definitions, maps and many other teleconnection resources
  Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns

Atmosphere Teleconnection Patterns

Atmospheric patterns are preferred states of flow in the atmosphere. For example, a preferred state in the North Atlantic region is a north/south dipole in temperature called the "North Atlantic Oscillation". These preferred patterns are the complex result of the interaction between mountains, oceans, surface boundary conditions, atmospheric dynamics and instability and other processes. Characteristic flow regimes are often associated with the patterns which can make it possible to say something about what temperature and precipitation will be over a region both concurrently and sometimes on the future. In addition, some of these patterns are themselves predictable (e.g. the Southern Oscillation Index) which will assist in forecasts of the atmosphere.

How patterns are determined

The fact that there are relationships between different regions in temperature and pressure in the atmosphere has been noted by many researchers (eg. Walker, Bjerknes, Namias). The first scientists to more precisely define these relationships were Wallace and Gutzler(1981). They looked at something called "teleconnections" in the atmosphere. This is defined as the link between regions that were highly positively or negatively correlated with each other in time. For example, the Western North American coast tends to be in the opposite state as that of the southeastern US. By looking at the location of the center of these correlations, they were able to define flow patterns by specifying the time series of a combination of grids (locations) on the globe. These time series could then be related to the data in the atmosphere.

Much work has been done in investigating these patterns including finding more of them, better defining them, and investigating their cause and effects.

How patterns can affect local weather.

The location of relatively high and low pressure in the atmosphere determines where and how fast the wind blows. This in turn affects how warm and cold air masses move, what the humidity in the atmosphere is, what the stability of the atmosphere is and how storms and storm tracks are located. An extreme low in the Mississippi Valley will tend to cause the winds to the east to blow from the south bringing warm and moist air up the east coast. A lack of large pressure extrema in the US tends to result in east-west (zonal) flow that limits cold air in the south and warm air in the north. Predicting would be easy if the atmosphere stayed on one state. However, these patterns evolve through time and don't necessarily persist very long. In addition, the atmosphere may only be weakly in one pattern or it may be exhibit a combination of several patterns. What's more, even very similar atmospheric patterns aren't always associated with the same weather.

References