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TUTORIAL • October 26 & 27, 2004 MODELING • 2004 Production Suite • 2005 Production Suite • 2006 Production Suite • Click To See
HWRFTM
Forecasts From The 2007 Hurricane Season
• 2008 Hurricane
Season
Look here for real-time HWRFTM forecasts for the 2008 hurricane season |
The Weather Research and Forecast system for hurricane prediction,
e.g. the HWRFTM, became operational
at NCEP in 2007. This advanced hurricane prediction system was
developed at the NWS/NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) to
address the Nation's next generation hurricane forecast problems.
The HWRFTM
will have the capability to fully address the intensity, structure,
and rainfall forecast problems in addition to advancing wave and
storm surge forecasts. Also, continued advancements in track
prediction will remain an important focus of this prediction
system. The HWRFTM is a high resolution coupled air-sea-land prediction model with a movable nested grid and advanced physics for high resolution. To address the totality of the hurricane forecast problems noted above, the HWRFTM will include coupling to a nested wave model that will eventually be coupled to a dynamic storm surge model. Additionally, the land surface component will also serve as input to hydrology and inundation models to address the hurricane-related inland flooding problem. For initialization of the hurricane core circulation, an advanced data assimilation method was developed at EMC that will make use of real-time airborne Doppler radar data from NOAA's high altitude jet to initialize the three dimensional storm scale structure. The usage of real-time data in the HWRFTM hurricane core, together with the higher resolution of the model, will allow for more accurate hurricane predictions of intensity and structure. The current HWRFTM configuration is:
For future HWRFTM advancements see: 2008-2012 Hurricane Upgrade Plan |
LINKS • EMC • NCEP • NWS • NOAA • Dept. of Commerce • Page Contact |
