Chap1 | Chap 2 | Chap 3 | Chap 4 | Chap 5 | Appendices | Index
2 — General Findings
Subchapters: 2-1 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 2-5 | 2-6 | 2-7 | 2-8

Department of the Treasury, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms • Youth Crime Gun Interdiction Initiative

2–1 Introduction
This chapter presents seven sections of analysis of crime gun information submitted by participating jurisdictions. It contains tables and figures that describe: first, characteristics of crime gun possessors; second, the relationship between crime gun purchasers and crime gun possessors; third, the types of crime guns possessed, by type, caliber, manufacturer, and model; fourth, the relationships between possessor’s age, weapon type, and the speed with which crime guns move from first retail sale to criminal use and recovery by law enforcement; fifth, the geographic sources of traced firearms; sixth, the number of crime guns with obliterated serial numbers; and seventh, information about multiple sales and crime guns.

Following the Gun to the Criminal and the Criminal Supplier. This section of the report provides an overview of key crime gun patterns, based on the collection and analysis of thousands of traces, to assist law enforcement officials at the Federal, State, and local levels in assessing the local crime gun problem and deciding how best to deploy limited criminal and regulatory enforcement resources against gun criminals.

National Findings. These general findings are based on 64,637 crime gun trace requests from the 32 jurisdictions participating in the Youth Crime Gun Interdiction Initiative that have a population of 250,000 inhabitants or more. These jurisdictions comprise 48 percent of the 67 U.S. jurisdictions with a population over 250,000; the population of these 32 jurisdictions is more than two-thirds of the 47 million persons living in U.S. cities having over 250,000 inhabitants. While not yet meeting the program’s long-term goal of complete national geographic coverage, this sample provides a reasonable basis for national analyses of crime gun trace information. To give perspective on the national findings, variations among cities are highlighted throughout.

Presentation by Possessor Age Group. To show age differences in crime gun information, this report puts the 64,637 trace requests into three age groups—juveniles (ages 17 & under), youth (ages18-24), and adults (ages 25 & older). The total for all age groups is also included, and some of the analyses also provide information about the trace requests for which age is unknown.

Annual Reports. For the first time, ATF is presenting these findings on a calendar year basis. This comprehensive crime gun trace information from a large number of jurisdictions complements the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Uniform Crime Reports, the National Crime Victimization Survey of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, ATF’s reporting on firearms commerce and firearms investigations*, and other efforts to improve understanding of violent crime in the United States.

*Following the Gun: Enforcing Federal Laws Against Firearms Traffickers, Department of the Treasury, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, June 2000; Commerce in Firearms in the United States 1999), Department of the Treasury, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, February 2000.

2–2 Age of Possessors

Possessor Age Information. Information on the age of the crime gun possessor was included in 40,730 (63 percent) of the 64,637 trace requests received from participating jurisdictions.

Ages 18 to 20. As displayed in Figure 1, the single most frequent age of crime gun possessors was 19, followed closely by ages 20 and 18. There was a significant increase in the number of traces from 131 at age 13 to 2,204 at age 19. Each year, more than 14,000 crime guns are recovered from individuals between the ages of 18 and 24, the peak years for being a crime gun possessor. The number of crime gun trace requests drops steadily from 1,699 at age 24 to 895 for possessors at age 30, and at the age of 50, there were only 298 trace requests. 4

Juvenile, Youth, and Adult Crime Guns. As presented in Table 1, among the trace requests for which the possessor’s age was known, adult possession accounted for almost 57 percent of the trace requests, youth possession accounted for 34 percent, and the juvenile category accounted for over 9 percent.

City Variations. The age distribution of crime gun possessors can vary considerably from the national averages across cities. In certain cities, firearms were recovered predominantly from adults. For example, adults comprised 82 percent of gun possessors in San Jose, CA; 72 percent of the gun possessors in Miami, FL; 71 percent of the gun possessors in Houston, TX; and 70 percent of the gun possessors in Cleveland, OH and Phoenix, AZ. In other cities, firearms were most frequently recovered from youth. Youth comprised 48 percent of the gun possessors in Jersey City, NJ; 47 percent of the gun possessors in Washington, DC and Charlotte- Mecklenburg, NC; and 46 percent of the gun possessors in Boston, MA.

Juvenile and Youth Crime Guns Remain a Problem. The FBI’s Supplemental Homicide Reports show that gun homicides committed by juveniles and youth have declined 41 percent, from 11,657 in 1993 to 6,863 in 1998. They remain a significant problem, however, accounting for 57 percent of all gun homicides in 1998 for which the age of the offender is known. Juveniles alone accounted for 12 percent of these homicides in 1998.5

Parallel with Violent Crime Data. While ATF crime gun tracing is not complete, crime gun information closely parallels data gathered on violent crime from other sources. In 1998, according to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, for those offenders where an age is known, individuals 18 years of age were arrested more frequently than persons of any other age for murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Individuals 19 years of age were the next most likely to be arrested for murder, rape, and aggravated assault, and individuals 20 years of age were ranked third for murder and aggravated assault. 6

4 For a detailed listing of the number of trace requests by age, see Appendix B, Technical Note 6.
5 James A. Fox and Marianne W. Zawitz, Homicide Trends in the U.S., Bureau of Justice Statistics, February 1, 2000, pg 87.
6 FBI Uniform Crime Reports 1998, Table 38, p. 220.

FIGURE 1 Click to view larger image.

TABLE 1 Click to view larger image.

2–3 When the Crime Gun Purchaser Is the Crime Gun Possessor

Most Crime Guns Are Not Possessed by Their First Purchasers. In about 89 percent (19,196 of 21,594) of the trace requests where the crime gun possessor and the purchaser are known, they are not the same individuals. There is little variation by firearm type. This shows the importance of a full investigation of the chain of possession of crime guns.

Transfers of a Firearm beyond the Initial Purchase by a Retail Customer Usually Cannot Be Followed to the Criminal Possessor Using Serial Numbers and Transfer Documentation Alone. Federal law does not require unlicensed sellers to perform Brady background checks or maintain transfer records for tracing, and firearm owners are not required to keep a record of the serial number of their firearms or to report lost or stolen firearms. Therefore, it is generally impossible for a National Tracing Center (NTC) crime gun trace alone to identify purchasers beyond the initial retail purchaser. If a crime gun is not recovered from its original purchaser, it has been transferred at least once in the secondary market, that is, by someone other than an FL.
These transfers may be lawful or unlawful. The crime gun may have been transferred by a straw purchaser; resold by an unlicensed seller or as a used gun by an FFL; borrowed, traded, or given as a gift; stolen by its criminal possessor; or stolen and trafficked, among other possibilities.

Investigative Methods for Tracking the Chain of Transfers from Retail Sale to the Crime Gun Possessor. FFL reporting to the NTC. ATF, in 2000, began requiring certain FFLs who failed to cooperate with crime gun traces as well as those with 10 or more crime gun traces with a time-to-crime of 3 years or less, to report certain firearms transaction information to the NTC to permit crime gun tracing. State documentation. States may impose additional firearm transfer documentation requirements that law enforcement agencies may use to trace firearms purchased in-State. Investigative tracing. For traces of crime guns recovered from juveniles and traces involving certain crimes, ATF agents, often working with State and local law enforcement officials in YCGII cities, will follow the gun through the chain of possession to an illegal supplier by performing an investigative trace. Investigative tracing uses interviews and other investigative techniques to track the gun through the entire chain of transfers to the criminal possessor. Investigative tracing is a resource-intensive investigative method that is not practicable for all gun crimes.

2–4 Firearm Type, Caliber, Manufacturer, and Model

Trace Request Information. Trace requests are required to include the type, caliber, manufacturer, and serial number of the crime gun because this information is necessary to trace a firearm from manufacturer and wholesale distributor to the point of sale. Information about the particular model of the firearm is not required but is provided consistently in some jurisdictions and is proving useful. (See Appendix
C, ATF Firearm Trace Request Form.)

Classification in this Report. Generally, crime guns described in this report are classified by the different kinds of information provided on the ATF trace form. For some of the tables and figures in this report, firearms are placed into two basic groups: handguns and long guns. Handguns include semiautomatic pistols, revolvers, and derringers. Long guns include shotguns and rifles. All other firearms are accounted for in an “Other” category.

Patterns in Types of Crime Guns. Classifying crime guns by type, caliber, manufacturer, and model allows law enforcement to differentiate among firearms. When large numbers of trace requests are analyzed, the patterns in crime gun types emerge. With more comprehensive information, more complete analysis is possible. In this report, different patterns are highlighted by focusing separately on type, caliber, manufacturer, and model.

Targeting Criminals, Protecting Officer Safety. Detailed information about crime guns enables law enforcement to target criminal and regulatory resources on the sources of those crime guns. As criminals shift illegal sources, law enforcement officials can target the new sources, and deter and make more difficult criminal acquisition. Knowledge of what crime guns criminals are using is also an important consideration for State and local law enforcement in assessing potential departmental safety measures.

Handguns, Especially Semiautomatic Pistols. As displayed in Figure 2 and Table 2, traced crime guns are largely handguns (77 percent) and, among handguns, largely semiautomatic pistols, which alone account for half (50 percent) of all crime guns traced.

Juveniles and Youth with Handguns, Adults with More Long Guns. The dominance of handguns and semiautomatic pistols is especially present among juveniles and youth. Semiautomatic pistols are more prevalent among juveniles (57 percent) and youth (60 percent) than among adults (47 percent). A substantial portion of firearm traces, 21 percent, involves a shotgun or a rifle, but juveniles or youth infrequently possess these long guns. Adults are nearly twice as likely (24 percent) as juveniles (13 percent) to possess a recovered long gun.

Unknown Age Group Resembles Adults. When the age of the crime gun possessor is unknown, the distribution of firearm types among trace requests is similar to the distribution among crime guns recovered from adults; semiautomatic pistols are the most common crime gun but a substantial proportion of long guns is also found.

City Variations. The distribution of semiautomatic pistols, revolvers, shotguns, and rifles among adult, youth, and juvenile possessors was remarkably stable across participating cities, but there were some important differences in a few cities.
• For example, 97 percent of the firearms submitted for tracing by the Atlanta, GA Police Department were handguns. Semiautomatic pistols were clearly the weapon of choice in Atlanta; 79 percent of youth recoveries, 72 percent of juvenile recoveries, and 69 percent of adult recoveries in Atlanta were semiautomatic pistols.
• Trace requests in Phoenix, AZ and Philadelphia, PA also revealed a high percentage of semiautomatic pistol recoveries across all age groups.
• In some cites, there were higher percentages of semiautomatic pistol recoveries in only one age group. For example, 67 percent of guns recovered from youth in Milwaukee, WI and 61 percent of guns recovered from youth in Portland, OR were semiautomatic pistols.
• Revolvers were the most frequently recovered firearms from juveniles in Houston, TX (40 percent) and in Tampa, FL (47 percent).
 • Long guns were also more frequently recovered from youth and juveniles in San Jose, CA; Houston, TX; and San Antonio, TX when compared with participating cities overall.

FIGURE 2 Click to view larger image.

TABLE 2 Click to view larger image.

Type and Caliber/Gauge of Firearms

Most Frequently Traced Handguns and Long Guns by Type and Caliber. Table 3 and Figure 3 rank handgun types and calibers for which the most trace requests were submitted for individual age groups and all ages combined. Table 4 and Figure 4 rank long gun types and calibers by the most frequent to the tenth most frequent for all age groups.

Four Main Handguns. When crime guns are described by type and caliber, they are notably concentrated. As shown in Table 3, four handgun types and calibers accounted for 62 percent of all handgun trace requests:
• 9mm semiautomatic pistols
• .38 caliber revolvers
• .380 caliber semiautomatic pistols
• .25 caliber semiautomatic pistols

Youth and 9mm Semiautomatic Pistols. While the 9mm semiautomatic pistol is the most frequent handgun type among all age groups (23 percent), this is especially so among youth, where this one handgun type accounted for 28 percent of all trace requests.

TABLE 3 Click to view larger image.

TABLE 3 Click to view larger image.


FIGURE 3 Click to view larger image.

Two Main Long Guns. As shown in Table 4 and Figure 4, there is even greater concentration among long guns recovered as crime guns than among handguns. Two long gun types, the 12 gauge shotgun and the .22 caliber rifle, accounted for 12 percent of all trace requests and more than 57 percent of all long gun trace requests.

Juveniles and Youth. The concentration of the 12 gauge shotgun and .22 caliber rifle is greater within the juvenile (66 percent) and youth (61 percent) age groups than among adults (56 percent).

TABLE 4 Click here to view larger image.

TABLE 4 Click here to view larger image.

FIGURE 4 Click here to view larger image.

Manufacturer, Caliber/Gauge, and Type of Firearms

Most Frequently Traced Firearms, Handguns, and Long Guns. Table 5 ranks frequently traced firearms by manufacturer, caliber/gauge, and type for each age group. Table 6 ranks revolvers and semiautomatic pistols for all age groups by the frequency with which they occur in firearm trace requests and Table 7 ranks shotguns and rifles.

Crime Guns Concentrated. Ten firearms by manufacturer, caliber, and type accounted for 24 percent (15,211) of all trace requests (64,637). Over 1,500 different firearms and 87 calibers accounted for the remaining crime guns (49,426).

Most Frequently Traced Crime Guns. Smith & Wesson .38 revolvers (2,968 trace requests) top the list for all age groups combined and ranked in the top three crime guns traced in each age group. Among juveniles and youth, the Lorcin Engineering .380 semiautomatic pistol was the firearm most frequently traced. Among adults and all age groups combined, this same firearm is the second most frequently listed. The only long gun in the top 10 traced firearms among all age groups combined was the Mossberg 12 gauge shotgun (1,287 trace requests). Among adults, the Marlin .22 caliber rifle ranked ninth (370 trace requests).

TABLE 5 Click to view larger image.

TABLE 5 Click to view larger image.

Most Frequently Traced Long Guns. As shown in Table 7, 10 long guns accounted for 45 percent (6,240) of all long gun trace requests (13,822). Among all age groups, the Mossberg 12 gauge shotgun represented 9 percent of long gun trace requests. The imported North China Industries 7.62mm rifle constituted 6 percent (873) of all long gun trace requests, the third most frequent trace requests for long guns among all age groups.

City Variations. The top 10 firearms were well represented among the most frequently recovered firearms in all participating cities, but the specific mix of firearms in a particular city could differ from the national top 10 crime guns. Local law enforcement agencies should be aware that manufacturers and calibers of firearms not listed in the overall top 10 crime guns may comprise an important part of the local illegal gun market for a particular age group within their city. Three firearms were not represented in the overall top 10 recovered crime guns for any age group, but were frequently recovered crime guns in many jurisdictions:
• the North China Industries 7.62mm rifle, a firearm frequently recovered from adults, youth, and/or juveniles in 12 cities (Birmingham, AL; Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC; Dallas, TX; Detroit, MI; Gary, IN; Jersey City,NJ; New Orleans, LA; Portland, OR; Tucson, AZ; Richmond, VA; San Antonio, TX; and St. Louis, MO);
• the Glock G.m.b.H. 9mm semiautomatic pistol, a firearm frequently recovered from adults, youth, and/or juveniles in 10 cities (Boston, MA; Bridgeport, CT; Denver/Aurora, CO; Gary, IN; Los Angeles, CA; Louisville, KY; Las Vegas, NV; Miami, FL; Philadelphia, PA; and Phoenix, AZ); and
• the Hi-Point 9mm semiautomatic pistol, a firearm frequently recovered from adults, youth, and/or juveniles in seven cities (Atlanta, GA; Baltimore, MD; Cincinnati, OH; Cleveland, OH; Philadelphia, PA; Tampa, FL; and Tucson, AZ).

Most Frequently Traced Handguns. As shown in Table 6, 10 handguns by manufacturer, type, and caliber accounted for 29 percent (14,918) of handgun trace requests (50,676). Three handguns manufactured by Smith & Wesson, the .38 caliber and .357 caliber revolvers and the 9mm semiautomatic pistol, ranked in the top 10 most frequently traced handguns. Two handguns manufactured by Bryco Arms, the .380 caliber and the 9mm semiautomatic pistol, are also included in the top 10 most frequently traced handguns. 7

7 See Section 4-4 for a discussion of manufacturer ranking when the specific model of firearm is considered, in contrast to a ranking of firearms by manufacturer and caliber, as here.

TABLE 6 Click to view larger image

TABLE 7 Click to view larger image

Manufacturer, Model, Caliber/Gauge, and Type of Firearms

New Specificity. Information on the specific models of crime guns is being provided for the first time this year. Tables 8a and 8b specify
traced handguns and long guns by manufacturer’s model, based on data from nine cities where traces reported the model at least 75 percent of the time: Atlanta, GA; Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC; Gary, IN; Jersey City, NJ; Miami, FL; New Orleans, LA; Omaha, NE; Richmond, VA; and Seattle, WA.

Significance of Model Information. Manufacturer and caliber information focus law enforcement on the major types of crime guns. Model information allows law enforcement to identify crime guns with greater specificity. Manufacturers that have been in business for many years have produced numerous models of firearms in certain frequently traced calibers. Other manufacturers are more recently established, out of business, and/or have manufactured only a few models. Therefore, when crime gun information is available by manufacturer only, the role of some models of crime gun may not be apparent. When model information is available, the placement of particular manufacturers’ firearms on the list of most frequently traced firearms can change substantially.

Handgun Models. As shown in Table 8a, the most frequently traced handgun model overall and in each possessor age group is the Lorcin Engineering L380 .380 caliber semiautomatic pistol. The second most frequently traced handgun is the Lorcin Engineering L9 9mm semiautomatic pistol. By contrast, while the Smith & Wesson .38 caliber revolver was the most frequently traced firearm by manufacturer and caliber (Table 5), no single model appears with comparable frequency. When model information is included, the Ruger 9mm semiautomatic pistol that appeared in third place on Table 5 is shown to be two different weapons, the Model P95 and the Model P89, among the most frequently traced handgun models. Raven Arms .25 caliber semiautomatic pistols, among the top 10 crime guns by manufacturer and caliber (Table 5), include the Model MP25, the fourth most frequently traced model. Bryco Arms .380 caliber and 9mm semiautomatic pistols appeared on the top 10 lists for juveniles and youths (Table 5); by model, the Model 9, Model 38, and Model 48 were among the top 10 youth crime guns, with the latter also a most frequently traced crime gun among juveniles and overall. Among youth, nine of the top 10 crime guns are 9mm or .380 caliber, with the exception of the Smith & Wesson Sigma .40 caliber semiautomatic pistol. By model, an addition to the top 10 for all age groups is the Hi-Point C 9mm semiautomatic pistol.

TABLE 8a Click to view larger image.

Long Gun Models. As shown in Table 8b, consistent with manufacturer information shown in Table 7, the Marlin 60 .22 caliber rifle was the most frequently traced long gun for adults, followed by the Mossberg 500 12 gauge shotgun. Also included on the adult list was the Colt AR15 .223 caliber rifle. Among youth, the North China Industries SKS 7.62mm rifle led the list, followed by the Mossberg 500 12 gauge shotgun, and the very similar Maverick Arms 88 12 gauge shotgun. Also on the list: the Remington 870 12 gauge shotgun; the North China Industries MAK90 rifle and SKS 7.62mm rifle; and the Hi-Point 995 9mm rifle.

Officer Safety. ATF is providing officer safety information relating to crime guns for the first time this year in order to assist State and local law enforcement managers in assessing potential departmental safety measures. Table 8b shows that for all age groups, the North China Industries Model SKS 7.62mm caliber rifle is the rifle model most frequently encountered by law enforcement officers. The North China Industries Model MAK90 7.62mm caliber rifle is also encountered in significant numbers, and the Colt Model AR15 .223 caliber rifle is among the long guns most frequently recovered from adult possessors.8 These rifles, as well as most other rifles, will pose an enhanced threat to law enforcement, in part, because of their ability to expel projectiles at velocities that are capable of penetrating the type of soft body armor typically worn by the average police officer.

Table 8b Click to view larger image.

8 The North China Industries model SKS 7.62 has been barred from importation into the United States since May 1994 when the President banned the importation of munitions from China. Letter to Secretary of the Treasury Lloyd M. Bentsen from Secretary of State Warren Christopher, May 28, 1994. The Colt AR-15 is a semiautomatic assault weapon as defined in the Gun Control Act of 1968. 18 U.S.C. 921(a)(30). It is generally unlawful to possess or transfer these firearms. 18 U.S.C. 922(v)(1). This prohibition, however, does not apply to any AR-15 that was lawfully possessed on or before Sept. 13, 1994. 18 U.S.C. 921(v)(2). The North China Industries MAK90 has been barred from importation since May 1994 when the President banned the importation of munitions from China. In addition, in 1998, it was determined that this firearm was not generally recognized as particularly suitable for sporting purposes and, therefore, could not be legally imported into the United States. 18 U.S.C. 925(d)(3). Department of the Treasury Study on the Sporting Suitability of Modified Semiautomatic Assault Weapons, April 1998, Department of the Treasury.

2-5 Time-to-Crime

Time-to-Crime. An important consideration in understanding firearms trafficking is the length of time from a firearm’s first retail sale by a Federal firearm licensee (FFL) to its recovery by law enforcement as a crime gun. A short time-to-crime can be an indicator of illegal firearms trafficking. Focusing on these firearms alone can produce significant trafficking trends and patterns. Investigating crime guns with short time-to-crime allows law enforcement to seek out sources of crime guns and disrupt the flow of illegal firearms trafficking.

Limitation on Time-to-Crime Information for Used Crime Guns. Since an NTC trace generally extends only to the first retail purchaser, a trace of a gun sold used by an unlicensed seller or FFL usually will not show a fast time-to-crime, even if it was recovered by law enforcement shortly after its most recent transfer. Therefore, the time-to-crime measure as an indicator of trafficking is clearest when applied to guns sold new by FFLs.

Percentage of Traces with Time-to-Crime. To compute time-to-crime, both the date the firearm was recovered and the date it was purchased from a retail FFL must be known. Sufficient information to compute a time-to-crime was provided for 50 percent (32,573) of the crime gun traces (64,637). These traces are analyzed in this section. Reporting Median Time-to-Crime. Throughout this report, the average time-to-crime for specific guns, for age groups, and for other sets of traces is reported by the median. The median is the actual time-to-crime value of the middle gun in a group when all of the guns in that group have been sorted in order by time-to-crime. The median is a particularly useful measure of central tendency when a variable has a small subset of cases with extreme values; such as the case with time-to-crime.

Many New Crime Guns. The illegal market in guns involves new guns, used guns, and stolen guns. Figure 5 displays the cumulative percent of crime guns by years since purchase, and shows that nearly a third (32 percent, 10,275) of recovered crime guns for which a time-to-crime could be computed (32,597) had been purchased for the first time within 3 years of their recovery. Since these crime guns were all recovered in 1999, nearly one-third of the crime guns with known time-to-crime entered firearm commerce in 1996 or later.

Many Very Short Time-to-Crime Guns. Crime guns with very short time-to-crime represent a priority for further investigation, as the original transaction may have involved illegal diversion that is continuing. As shown in Figure 6, about 15 percent (4,791) of the crime guns recovered in 1999 for which a time-to-crime could be computed had a time-to-crime of 12 months or less. Another 9 percent (2,930) of the recovered crime guns had a time-to-crime of over 1 year and up to 2 years.9

Relatively Short Time-to-Crime for All Crime Guns. As shown in Figure 5, half of the crime guns recovered in 1999 had a time-to-crime of 5.7 years or less.10 This is a relatively short period of time. Gun owners surveyed in 1994 indicated that they had owned their firearm an average of 13 years.11

9 The exact numbers and percents for Figures 5 and 6 can be found in Appendix B, Technical Note 7. Additional time-to-crime estimates are included in Appendix B, Technical Note 8.
10 Calculation of time-to-crime in years is based on an initial calculation of the number of days between purchase date and recovery date. Days-to-crime is converted to years by dividing by 365.25, and rounded to one decimal point.
11 Phillip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig, Guns in America, Police Foundation 1997.

FIGURE 5 Click to view larger image.

FIGURE 6 Click to view larger image.

 

Time-to-Crime by Firearm Type and Age Group of Possessor

Variation by Firearm Type and Age Group. Time-to-crime varies with the type of firearm and the age of the possessor.

Semiautomatic Pistols in Contrast to Revolvers. As shown in Table 9 and Figure 7, while the median time-to-crime for semiautomatic pistols (21,095) is 4.3 years, for revolvers (7,912) the median time-to-crime is 11.7 years.

Juvenile, Youth, and Adult Crime Guns Contrasted. As shown in Table 9, the median time-to-crime for crime guns possessed by youth is 4.8 years, a year and a half shorter than for crime guns possessed by juveniles (6.3 years), and a little less than a year shorter than for adults (5.6 years).

Juveniles. As shown in Table 9 and Figure 8, juveniles tend to possess firearms that have a long time-to-crime. Their median time-to-crime is the longest of all age groups, and this is true if the firearm in their possession is a semiautomatic pistol, a revolver, or a rifle. Revolvers recovered by law enforcement from juveniles have a median time-to-crime of more than 15 years. An exception to the pattern is that the small number of shotguns and “Other” firearms possessed by juveniles have a shorter time-to-crime than other age groups.

Shortest and Longest Time-to-Crime Guns. As shown in Table 9, semiautomatic pistols recovered from youth have the shortest median time-to-crime, 3.6 years (5,620 traces). Thus, half of the semiautomatic pistols recovered from youth in 1999 were sold in 1995 or later. The longest median time-to-crime is observed for revolvers possessed by juveniles, 15.3 years (433 traces). Time-to-crime information alone cannot determine whether these recovered semiautomatic pistols were obtained through illegal diversion or purchased new from FFLs
by youth crime gun possessors. This is the type of question that law enforcement officials must further investigate. Since nearly 89 percent of all traced crime guns changed hands at least once before recovery by law enforcement, it can be assumed that illegal diversion plays a significant role in youth crime gun acquisition.

City variations. The median time-to-crime for recovered crime guns varied across the YCGII cities. Certain cities had a median time-to-crime that was notably shorter than the YCGII city average of 5.7 years. These cities included Gary, IN (2.9 years); Atlanta, GA (3.2 ears);
Portland, OR (3.2 years); St. Louis, MO (3.2 years); and Milwaukee, WI (3.6 years). Other cities had a median time-to-crime that was much longer than the YCGII city average. These cities included New York, NY (7.2 years); Oakland, CA (7.3 years); Boston, MA (7.6 years); Jersey City, NJ (7.8 years); and San Jose, CA (8.9 years).

FIGURE 7 Click to view larger image.

FIGURE 8 Click to view larger image.

Top Ten Crime Guns by Manufacturer, Caliber, Type, and Time-to-Crime

Time-to-Crime Varies Significantly Among Crime Guns. As shown in Table 10, there are significant differences in time-to-crime among crime guns classified by manufacturer.

Short Time-to-Crime Guns. As shown in Table 10, Bryco Arms 9mm semiautomatic pistols had the fastest median time-to-crime for all ages combined, just over 1.5 years, and 68 percent (526 of 770) had a time-to-crime of 3 years or less; the shortest time-to-crime was 0 days. Bryco Arms .380 caliber semiautomatic pistols had a slightly longer time-to-crime of 2.5 years; 54 percent (499 of 917) of these crime guns had a time-to-crime of 3 years or less. Other firearms with relatively fast median time-to-crime include the Ruger 9mm semiautomatic pistol, median time-to-crime of nearly 3 years; and the Lorcin Engineering .380 semiautomatic pistol, median time-to-crime of 3.5 years.

Longer Time-to-Crime Guns. As shown in Table 10, the Smith & Wesson .38 caliber revolver had a median time-to-crime of just over 13 years; only 10 percent of the Smith and Wesson .38 caliber revolvers had a median time-to-crime of 3 years or less. The Smith & Wesson 357 caliber revolver had a median time-to-crime of just over 12 years, and the Smith & Wesson 9mm semiautomatic pistol had a median time-to-crime of just over 4.5 years. Only 2 percent of the Raven Arms .25 caliber semiautomatic pistols had a median time-to-crime of 3 years or less. In the case of this firearm, long time-to-crime can be correlated to its production history; Raven Arms stopped manufacturing firearms in 1991. 12 Therefore, many of these firearms were likely to have been resold as used by FFLs and/or transferred by unlicensed persons.

Long Gun Time-to-Crime. As shown in Table 10, the Mossberg 12 gauge shotgun, the only long gun among the most frequently traced firearms, had a median time-to-crime of 5.5 years; 32 percent of these guns had a time-to-crime of 3 years or less.

12 Fjestad, S. P., Blue Book of Gun Values, 2000. 21st ed. p. 1011. Minneapolis, MN: Bluebook Publications.

TABLE 10 Click to view larger image.

Manufacturer, Model, Caliber/Gauge, Type of Firearms, and Time-to-Crime

Limited Model Information. Table 11a shows time-to-crime for the most frequently traced firearms by specific model. Traces are analyzed from nine cities: Atlanta, GA; Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC; Gary, IN; Jersey City, NJ; Miami, FL; New Orleans, LA; Omaha, NE; Richmond, VA; and Seattle, WA. Models vary greatly in their time-to-crime.

Short Time-to-Crime Youth Handgun Models. Youth crime guns are heavily concentrated in the medium and high caliber semiautomatic pistols with relatively short time-to-crime. As shown in Table 11a, 7 of the 10 most frequently traced youth crime gun models have a median time-to-crime of less than 2 years. These short time-to-crime gun models are overwhelmingly 9mm and .380 caliber semiautomatic pistols, including the Lorcin Engineering L9 (0.6 year), the Ruger P95 (1.1 years), the Hi-Point C (0.8 year), the Bryco Arms 9 (0.5 year), the Bryco Arms 48 (0.5 year), and the Bryco Arms 38 (1.5 years). In addition, the more powerful Smith & Wesson Sigma .40 caliber semiautomatic has an extremely fast median time-to-crime of 0.8 years. Due to their short time-to-crime, many of these guns that were seized from a youth who did not purchase them have the potential to provide valuable trafficking leads.

Mixed Time-to-Crime for Adult Handgun Models. As shown in Table 11a, the most frequently traced adult crime guns are a more varied mix of firearms with typically a longer median time-to-crime. The Lorcin Engineering L9 (1 year), the Ruger P95 (1 year), and the Hi-Point C (1.2 years) have a time-to-crime of less than 2 years. The other medium caliber semiautomatic pistols, including the Ruger P89 (3.9 years), the Lorcin Engineering L380 (3.1 years), and the Davis Industries P380 (5.8 years) all have a longer time-to-crime. The list also includes the Raven Arms MP25 with a 10.9 year median time-to-crime, and the Taurus 85 and Rossi M68 with a median time-to-crime of 6.4 and 3.6 years, respectively. The Glock G.m.b.H. 22 has a significantly longer time-to-crime (2.9 years) than its counterpart on the youth list, the Smith & Wesson Sigma (0.8 years).

Mixed Time-to-Crime for Juvenile Handgun Models. Juveniles resemble adults more than youths in the models of handgun that they possess, but juvenile crime guns tended to have a longer time-to-crime than adult crime guns. As shown in Table 11a, the most frequently traced juvenile crime guns included fewer medium caliber, short time-to-crime semiautomatic pistols than the youth list, and included more small caliber weapons, and more revolvers with a longer time-to-crime. Several of the medium caliber semiautomatic pistols, including the Lorcin Engineering L380, (3.1 years) and the Lorcin Engineering L9 (1.5 years) have a median time-to-crime that is longer than in the youth and adult categories. There are two .25 caliber semiautomatic pistols, the Raven Arms MP25 (8.6 years) and the Lorcin Engineering L25. (6.3 years). The list also contains a pair of .38 caliber revolvers, the Charter Arms Undercover (18.2 years) and the Smith & Wesson 36 (16.6 years). Those with a shorter median time-to-crime, the Bryco Arms 9 semiautomatic pistol (0.2 year), the Bryco Arms 48, (1.1 years) and the Hi-Point C semiautomatic pistol (2.2 years), also tend to have a short time-to-crime in other age categories.

Time-to-Crime Among Long Gun Models. As shown in Table 11b, the long gun models for adults with the shortest median time-to-crime and, therefore, greatest investigative potential are the Hi-Point 995 rifle and the Maverick 88 shotgun, 1.2 and 2.0 years time-to-crime, respectively. Adults and youth are similar in their involvement with long guns, though youth long guns have somewhat shorter time-to-rime. Among the shortest time-to-crime youth models, the Winchester 1300 shotgun had a median time-to-crime of 0.2 years, and the Mossberg 500 shotgun had a median time-to-crime of 3.9 years. Long gun models most frequently recovered from adults or youth include rifles that are primarily sporting designs, the Marlin 60, the Ruger 10/22, and the Winchester 94, with a median time-to-crime of greater than 10 years.

TABLE 11a Click to view larger image.

TABLE 11b Click to view larger image.

2–6 Geographic Sources of Traced Firearms

Most Crime Guns Originally Purchased from Local Federal Firearms Licensees. As shown in Table 12, about 62 percent of crime guns were first purchased from FFLs in the State in which the guns were recovered by law enforcement officials.

Differences Among Age Groups with Crime Gun Geographic Sources. As Table 12 shows, while in-State crime guns predominated for all age groups, this is more so for adult crime gun possessors than for youth or juveniles.

Youth Crime Gun Geographic Sources. As shown in Table 12, more youth crime guns (40 percent) than adult crime guns (34 percent) were first purchased from out-of-state FFLs. Many In-State Crime Guns Come from Nearby Counties. As shown in Table 13, the source FFLs were within the same counties as the recovery cities for over a quarter of the crime guns (26 percent), nearly 11 percent of source FFLs were in adjacent counties in the same State or a neighboring State (9 percent).

Juvenile Crime Gun Geographic Sources. Crime guns recovered from juveniles were more likely (46.8 percent) than guns recovered from youth or adults to come from out-of-state FFLs.

City Variations. Cities vary significantly in the geographic sources of crime guns.
 • Six cities had 80 percent or more of their traceable crime guns first sold by FFLs in the State in which the city was located: Birmingham, AL; Gary, IN; Houston, TX; Miami, FL; New Orleans, LA; and San Antonio, TX.
• Four of these six cities (Birmingham, AL; Gary, IN; Houston, TX; and Miami, FL) had at least 40 percent of their in-State traceable crime guns originated from the county in which the recovery city was located. Houston, TX had the highest percentage of in-State crime guns originating from the same county (69 percent).
• For five cities, FFLs in the State where the city is located were the source of fewer than half of traced crime guns: Boston, MA; Detroit, MI; Jersey City, NJ; Las Vegas, NV; and New York City, NY. • Boston, MA; Jersey City, NJ; and New York City, NY had a noteworthy number of guns originating both from within their respective States and from southern States such as Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.
• Many of the traceable crime guns recovered in Detroit, MI were first sold at FFLs in Michigan (47 percent); however, a noteworthy percentage of traceable crime guns were also first sold at FFLs in Ohio (12 percent).
• Chicago, IL is part of both regional and national patterns. Of guns recovered in Chicago, 9 percent were first sold by FFLs in the neighboring State of Indiana. Many guns originated with FFLs in the South, with Mississippi supplying 8 percent. FFLs in Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, and Arkansas supplied an additional 8 percent.
• Las Vegas, NV had a notable number of guns from California FFLs (23 percent). Under half (49 percent) of the firearms were purchased from FFLs in Nevada.
• As a result of strict regulations on the sale and possession of firearms in Washington DC, FFLs in Maryland and Virginia were the sources of 55 percent of the traceable crime guns recovered in Washington, DC.

TABLE 12 Click to view larger image.

TABLE 13 Click to view larger image.

Regional and National Geographic Source Patterns

Regional Patterns. Figure 9 shows that in 16 of the cities, the crime guns were originally purchased in significant numbers at FFLs in States in the region in which the city is located: Atlanta, GA; Baltimore, MD; New York, NY; St. Louis, MO; Chicago, IL; Dallas, TX; Portland, OR; Tucson, AZ; Cincinnati, OH; Charlotte-Mecklenburg, NC; Detroit, MI; and Washington, DC.

Source to Recovery Patterns. The State that contains a city is generally its most important source of crime guns. Many guns move from regional and national sources, however. Figures A and B show the relative contribution of these sources. Regional trafficking consists of guns moving to a city from a neighboring State, while national trafficking involves guns moving from more distant States.

FIGURE 9 Click to view larger image.

Two National Patterns. Figure 10 illustrates that some cities form part of larger national patterns. The most important interstate pattern is south-north pattern along the East Coast, of crime guns first purchased at FFLs in the South, and recovered by law enforcement in Washington, DC; Baltimore, MD; Philadelphia,PA; and New York, NY. There is also a central south-north pattern, with guns first sold by FFLs in the South being recovered in Memphis, TN; St. Louis, MO; and especially Chicago, IL.

FIGURE 10 Click to view larger image.

2–7 Crime Guns with Obliterated Serial Numbers

Results of Traces from Eleven Cities. Since tracing of crime guns with obliterated serial numbers is not conducted consistently by law enforcement agencies, this report presents information from 11 cities which submitted requests for at least 85 of their crime guns with obliterated serial numbers: Baltimore, MD; Boston, MA; Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Los Angeles, CA; Memphis, TN; Milwaukee, WI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA; St. Louis, MO; and Washington, DC. No rifles, shotguns, or combination guns were included in this analysis because some older long guns were manufactured without serial numbers. Unique serial numbers were not mandated on all firearms until passage of the Gun Control Act (GCA) in 1968, and it is not always possible to distinguish certain pre-GCA firearms from post-GCA firearms with the information provided.

Characteristics of Crime Guns with Obliterated Serial Numbers. As shown in Table 14, in the 11 cities that were analyzed, 9 percent of semiautomatic pistols and nearly 5 percent of revolvers traced had obliterated serial numbers. Only a handful of derringers (29 of 519) had their serial numbers obliterated.

Obliteration Is Far More Common Among Youth and Juvenile Crime Guns. As shown in Table 14, obliteration is more common among crime guns recovered from youth and juveniles than from adults. Ten percent of semiautomatic pistols recovered from youth and juveniles had obliterated serial numbers. There is little variation by possessor’s age in the percentage of revolvers with obliterated serial numbers.

Tracing Crime Guns with Obliterated Serial Numbers. The obliteration of the serial number on a crime gun is a key criminal indicator of trafficking, because it shows that someone in the chain of possession assumes that the gun will be used for a crime, may have to be discarded by a criminal, or may be recovered by the police. If an obliterated serial number can be restored by a trained firearms examiner, tracing can proceed, with the result of possibly identifying participants in a serious criminal conspiracy. The tracing of guns with obliterated serial numbers is not conducted consistently by law enforcement agencies, however; not all jurisdictions are aware of the potential to restore and trace guns with obliterated serial numbers, and not all jurisdictions have the resources to do so. Even if the serial number is
not restored, ATF urges law enforcement agencies to submit informational traces so that information on firearm type, possessors, their associates, and recovery locations can be analyzed for trafficking leads.

Federal Felony - 5 Years’ Imprisonment. Possession of a gun with an obliterated serial number is itself a Federal felony punishable by 5 years’ imprisonment. Law enforcement should keep this in mind when debriefing individuals found in possession of guns with obliterated serial numbers.

TABLE 14 Click to view larger image.

2–8 Multiple Sales

Multiple Sales Behind 22 Percent of Traced Handguns. National Tracing Center processing of multiple sales report data, with the potential for use in combination with the Firearms Tracing System, was implemented in late 1998. This is the first year ATF has been able to provide specific data on handguns recovered in crime that were first sold in multiple sales. For all 32 cities combined, multiple sales handguns accounted for 22 percent (525) of all handguns first sold at retail in 1999 and traced in 1999 (2,378).

Link Between Multiple Sales and Obliteration. Among all traced handguns, those originally purchased in multiple sales transactions were particularly likely to have obliterated serial numbers. Multiple sales handguns made up 51 percent (18) of all traced handguns with obliterated serial numbers that were first sold at retail in 1999 and were the subject of a trace request that same year (35). This means that, among handguns both sold and traced in 1999, those recovered and traced with obliterated serial numbers were 2.3 times as likely to have been from a multiple sale (51 percent) as were all handguns together (22 percent). Additional attention will be given to this issue as more data on multiple sales and better data on obliteration becomes available.

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