Decision and Risk Analysis

Decision analysis comprises the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to formally and systematically address important decisions that must be made under conditions of uncertainty. This discipline includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing the important objectives and attributes of a decision situation, and for recommending alternatives based on the maximum expected utility action axiom. Ultimately, decision analysis results in translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker and other stakeholders.

Risk analysis is the systematic study of uncertainties and potential harm that may be encountered in such areas as the environment, business, engineering, and public policy. Risk denotes a potential negative impact to an asset or some characteristic of value that may arise from some process or future event. Risk analysis seeks to (1) identify the probability of loss, or risk, faced by an institution or business unit; (2) understand how and when risks arise; and (3) estimate the impact of adverse outcomes. Once evaluated, risks can be managed by implementing actions to mitigate or control them.

Methods based on decision and risk analysis are used in many fields, including business planning, marketing, and negotiation; homeland security; energy technology development and adoption; environmental remediation; R&D project portfolio selection; public healthcare research and management; energy exploration; and litigation and dispute resolution.

For more information, contact:
Michael Samsa
Decision and Information Sciences Division
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Ave., Bldg. 900
Argonne, IL 60439
Phone: 630-252-4961
Fax: 630-252-1548
E-mail: msamsa@anl.gov