The Technology Adoption Indicators (TAI) methodology provides
a framework for assessing whether a particular industry will
adopt new technologies. Based on economic theory and empirical
studies, this framework defines industry characteristics that
are associated with more rapid adoption of technology.
Applied to the ATP-funded flow control machining technology,
a case study using TAI concludes that the lawnmower industry
is a more likely adopter than the aircraft engine industry. Further
analysis of the potential impact of the Flow Control Machining
technology on the lawnmower industry using a macroeconomic simulation
and forecasting model suggests substantial benefits to the U.S.
economy.
The TAI framework includes:
- Market concentration, defined by the comprehensive Herfindahl
Index and the 4-firm and 8-firm concentration ratios
- Number of patents and research joint ventures
- Public policy constraints, such as environmental regulations
and tax law
A comparison of TAIs for the lawnmower industry and aircraft
engine industry, two potential adopters of Flow Control Machining
technology, showed the following:
TAI Measure |
Lawnmower Engines |
Aircraft Engines |
IndustryConcentration
-Herfindahl-Hirschman Index |
Optimal for adoption |
Not optimal for adoption |
Competitive environment
for technology -Number of patents 1996-2000 -Number
of research joint ventures |
Moderate level of patenting
and moderate number of research joint ventures indicate
less competition and relatively greater likelihood
of adoption of Flow Control Machining |
High level of patenting
and high number of research joint ventures indicate
more competition and relatively less likelihood of
adoption of Flow Control Machining |
Regulatory environment |
Major new anti-pollution
regulation suggests high likelihood of adoption |
--- |
There are widespread differences across U.S. industries in patents,
research joint ventures, the size and distribution of firms,
and in the use of new technologies. Increased understanding of
the relationships among these variables will help ATP to:
- Identify promising case studies for project evaluation
- Apply a consistent methodology for conducting prospective
case studies of the economic benefits of ATP projects
- Understand the industry environment addressed by the business
plans in ATP proposals
- Increase awareness of ATP awardees
as to which industries are more likely potential
adopters of their technologies
- Assess the likelihood of
adoption and the potential economic impact of proposed
projects
_____________________
1 Recently published
ATP contractor study by Brown and Ehlen, Technology
Adoption Indicators Applied to the ATP Flow-Control
Machining Project, NISTIR 6888, May 2003.
Factsheet 1.G4 (July 2003 by Jeanne Powell) |
