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NISTIR
6917
Different Timelines for Different Technologies:
Evidence from the Advanced Technology Program
Jeanne Powell
Economic Assessment Office
Advanced Technology Program
Francisco
Moris
National Science Foundation
(formerly with the Economic Assessment Office,
NIST Advanced Technology Program)
November
2002
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PDF version of report.
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Table of Contents
Abstract
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
A. Justification,
Objective, and Scope of the Study
B. Related Studies
C. Organization of the Study
A. Overview of Data
B. Methodology of the Study
A. The Innovation
Life-Cycle Model
B. Extensions of the Model
C. Applications to the ATP Portfolio
A. Overview of Technology
Areas and Targeted Industrial Sectors
- Biotechnology
- Manufacturing
- Advanced Materials-Chemistry
- Electronics Computer
Hardware, and Communications
- Information Technology
B. Profile of Participants,
Projects, and Applications
A. Expectations about
the Timeline for Commercialization
- When Can We Expect
to See Revenues?
B. Expected Market
Window of Opportunity
A. Firm Size
B. Project Structure
C. Strategy for Commercialization
D. Competitive Advantage
E. Availability of Capital
A. Summary of Findings
by Technology Area, Conclusion, and Future Work
- Biotechnologies
and Information Technologies
- Manufacturing and
Materials-Chemistry Projects
- Electronics
B. Conclusion and
Policy Implications
C. Future Work
A. Very Early Commercialization—During
ATP
- Profile of Matched
Commercial Applications
- Baseline Expectations
versus Close-out Performance
B. Longer-Term Commercialization
Activity—Two to Three Years after ATP
- Profile of Matched
Project Participants
C. Post-project Performance
List of Tables
Table 1. Significant Characteristics of
Three Phases of Industrial Innovation
Table 2. Sectoral Technology Trajectories
Table 3. Summary of Projects, Participants,
and Applications, by Report Type
Table 4. Distribution of Participants
and Projects, by Technology Area
Table 5. Distribution of Project Participants
in Each Technology Area, by Organization Type/Size and Project Type
Table 6. Distribution of Commercial Applications,
by Technology Area
Table 7. External Funding Activity
Table A.1. Profile of Commercial Applications
in Matched Close-out and Baseline Reports
Table A.2. Expectations versus Actual Commercialization
Results from Matched Baseline and Close-out Reports, by Technology Area
Table A.3. Distribution of Participants
and Projects
Table A.4. Actual and Expected Commercialization
Activity as of Two to Three Years after ATP, by Technology Area
List of Figures
Figure 1. When Can We Expect To See Revenues?
Figure 2. How Long Will the Window of Market
Opportunity Stay Open?
Figure 3. Applications Profile: Manufactured
Products, Manufacturing Processes, and Services
Figure 4. When Revenue Is Expected: By Commercialization
Strategy
Figure 5. Commercialization Strategy: By
Firm Size
Figure 6. Business Advantage: By Technology
Area
Figure A.1. Comparison of Actual Revenue
Activity at Project Close-out with Expectations at Baseline
About
the Advanced Technology Program
About
the Authors
Date created: March
4, 2003
Last updated:
April 12, 2005
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