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CSCOR-supported Research Provides Foundation for Effective Management of the "Dead Zone" in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
OFFICIAL SIZE OF 2008 DEAD ZONE DETERMINED
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Since its inception in 1990, the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science's Coastal Ocean Program (COP)/Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR) has provided the research foundation upon which management of the "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico is based. This >15-year, $25 million commitment is an exemplar of NOAA's goal to "protect, restore and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based management."
Hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) occurs in many of the world's aquatic environments. Hypoxic and anoxic (no oxygen) waters have existed through geologic time, but the frequency of their occurrence in shallow coastal and estuarine areas worldwide is increasing, largely attributed to anthropogenic nutrient pollution. The largest zone of oxygen-depleted coastal waters in the United States, and the second largest for the world's coastal oceans, is in the northern Gulf of Mexico on the Louisiana continental shelf.
The interagency Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force was established in the fall of 1997 as part of a process of considering options for responding to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. The Task Force is made up of leading representatives from states and the federal government, and includes Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.) Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator. In 2001, the Task Force issued an Action Plan that set a goal to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone to 5,000 km2 by 2015. The Action Plan, which included 11 specific implementation actions, suggested that a 30% reduction in nitrogen load is needed to reach the goal. Over the past five years, steps have been taken to implement this national strategy, and, more recently, a Science Reassessment has been initiated to update the Action Plan in an adaptive management framework.
For well over a decade, NCCOS' Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, formerly the Coastal Ocean Program, has been on the forefront of this effort. CSCOR involvement began with the NECOP Program; supporting interdisciplinary projects that provided the resource base for the COP-sponsored Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) integrated assessment in 2000 that was called for in the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act (HABHRCA). This assessment and its six supporting technical reports provided the state-of-knowledge on the characteristics, causes, and effects of Gulf of Mexico hypoxia, and guided the scientific consensus leading to the Action Plan. CSCOR has played a leading role on the Coordinating Committee for the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force and co-chairs its Monitoring, Modeling and Research Workgroup. In addition, CSCOR continues to lead the support and management of hypoxia research in this region through the HABHRCA-mandated NGOMEX Program.
Knowledge gained through the NGOMEX Program satisfies several elements of the Action Plan . Ongoing studies, utilizing a regional ecosystem approach, are documenting the dynamics of the hypoxic zone over the Louisiana continental shelf and helping to better define the relationships among nutrients, phytoplankton, carbon production and flux, physical properties, and hypoxia effects on fisheries. These studies are leading to enhanced predictive models capable of examining a multitude of interacting factors (e.g. nutrient input and recycling, freshwater inflow, circulation patterns) on the size of the hypoxic zone and how hypoxia affects commercially and ecologically important species in the region. These predictions of complex processes, or ecological forecasts, will allow for the comprehensive assessment of alternative management strategies within the context of influences from the basin and climatic trends. In FY'08 CSCOR's commitment to supporting Task Force science needs was renewed as an additional three year $781,000 project was initiated for the NGOMEX program.
CSCOR has led several elements of the Science Reassessment process, coordinating symposia and preparing peer-reviewed scientific papers including co-leading with EPA on the Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Assessing the State of the Science Symposium in April of 2006 in New Orleans. These scientific symposia and papers are providing some of the most up-to-date information to facilitate an evaluation of the science by an EPA Science Advisory Board Hypoxia Advisory Panel . Recommendations from the Reassessment will include research needs for guiding future management actions. Many of these needs are expected to be met by newly funded NGOMEX projects, and by CSCOR-sponsored meetings in 2007 whcih include; Summit on Long-Term Monitoring of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone: Developing the Implementation Plan for an Operational Observation System, and Ecological Impacts of Hypoxia on Living Resources Workshop.
The results from the ongoing Science Reassessment of the Action Plan, combined with an independent science review by the Environmental Protection Agency’s Science Advisory Board Hypoxia Advisory Panel, has served to update and synthesize research efforts on the causes and consequences of the hypoxic zone and assess progress in implementing nutrient reduction measures in the Mississippi River watershed. This information has been incorporated into a draft revised Action Plan
LATEST UPDATE - MEASUREMENT OF DEAD ZONE 7/28/08
The official size of the dead zone, as measured by National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science’s (NCCOS) Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research (CSCOR)-supported scientists from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) is 20,721 km2, the second largest since measurements began in 1985. This represents a land area greater than the state of Massachusetts, and is slightly lower than forecast predictions. Over the past 5 years, the Dead Zone has averaged 17,010 km2, substantially larger then the interagency Gulf of Mexico/Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task force goal of reducing the Zone to 5,000 km2.
The difference between the observed and predicted size can be attributed to Hurricane Dolly. Winds and waves associated with outer bands of the hurricane re-aerated parts of the bottom waters in portions of the Dead Zone just before measurements were taken, especially near shore and along its western edge. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) groundfish surveys (SEAMAP/Hypoxia Watch project) conducted prior to the LUMCON cruise found widespread hypoxia that extended well into Texas waters, confirming that the Dead Zone area was reduced substantially by Hurricane Dolly.
click here for NOAA press release
click here for Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) press release
JULY UPDATES - FINAL FORECAST OF DEAD ZONE ISSUED
The final forecast by NOAA-supported scientists from the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON) and Louisiana State University (LSU) predicts Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” will measure 8,800 square miles (22,792 km2). This forecast predicts possibly the largest Dead Zone on record, provided it is not disrupted by strong storms this summer. NOAA-supported scientists at the University of Michigan also predict a large hypoxic area between 8,300 and 8,700 square miles (21,497 - 22,533 km2). Using nutrient loadings data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey, these large dead zone forecasts are due to a combination of high flows and high nitrogen concentrations which together have produced a very high nutrient load to the Gulf. The annual summer measurement of the Dead Zone, which provides the benchmark for assessing progress towards the goals of the Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan, is slated to begin on July 20, 2008.
click here for NOAA press release
click here for LUMCON/LSU forecast hypoxia forecast
click here for University of Michigan hypoxia forecast
JUNE UPDATES - PRELIMINARY FORECAST OF DEAD ZONE
A preliminary Gulf of Mexico "Dead Zone" forecast has been released from Louisiana State University (LSU). This forecast predicts the possibility of the largest Dead Zone ever in the GUlf of Mexico, provided hypoxia is not disrupted by strong storms this summer. This is due to a combination of high flows and high nitrogen concentrations which together have produced a very high nutrient load to the Gulf. The official forecast will come out in July, when official nutrient loading data are available from the U.S Geological Survey (USGS). TO view the press release about the preliminary forecast click here.
The Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force will formally release the 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan during a signing ceremony and meeting on June 16, 2008 in New Orleans, LA. Completing a multi-step scientific reassessment of the 2001 Action Plan, this ceremony will afford an opportunity for media engagement and feature comments by Task Force members. The Task Force will also continue its commitment for maximum stakeholder and public engagement through a dedicated public session that will be held the following day, on June 17, 2008. For more information see the current newsflash about the event.
The Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force has formally approved the language of its updated Action Plan. A formal roll out of the Action Plan is anticipated in early summer.
Following the completion of a public comment period, the Gulf of Mexico/Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task Force is currently reviewing over 600 comments on the draft 2008 Action Plan. The Task Force anticipates finalizing the 2008 Action Plan during its 16th meeting in Chicago, IL on February 29-30, 2008. In addition, the Task Force also intends to finalize an annual operating plan, aimed at increasing specificity and accountability of actions.
The Gulf of Mexico/Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task Force has released a draft of the 2008 Action Plan for pubic comment. In the draft 2008 Action Plan, the Task Force will “strive to reduce or make significant progress” towards the 2001 Action Plan goal of reducing the size of the hypoxic zone to 5,000 km2 by 2015. It was concluded during the reassessment process that reductions of at least 45% in both nitrogen and phosphorus inputs would be required to meet the 5,000 km2 goal. The draft 2008 Action Plan continues its focus on voluntary actions, but seeks to include greater specificity and accountability through the identification of State or Federal entities responsible for the execution of each action. The public comment period for the draft ends on January 4, 2007 and stakeholders and the public with interests in the Gulf of Mexico are encouraged to participate. NOAA has been a key player in facilitating management policy progress for the northern Gulf ecosystem for over a decade as well as the major force determining priorities for, and funding of, research to inform the largest interagency ecosystem management effort in the Nation.
The scientific basis to update the Action Plan took a significant step forward following two public meetings during the week of 12-16 June 2007 in New Orleans. The 14th meeting of the Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force convened on June 12-13 2007 and preceded a meeting of the EPA Science Advisory Board Hypoxia Advisory Panel. The HAP presented a draft advisory report to the Task Force and its Coordinating Committee which included recommendations for maintaining the current hypoxic zone goal of 5,000 km2 by 2015 and for developing reduction strategies for both phosphorus and nitrogen. Based on these recommendations, and incorporating new Task Force-approved thematic areas of focus (e.g. biofuel-driven changes in agriculture, reauthorization of the Farm Bill, lower basin wetland restoration and water diversion, greater specificity and accountability in management actions, etc.), the Task Force is developing an updated Action Plan that will articulate a more specific management strategy to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf and improve water quality in the Mississippi River Basin. At their 15th meeting on October 29-30, 2007, the Task Force will review a draft of the updated Action Plan which is scheduled to be completed in early-2008. NOAA has been a key player in facilitating management policy progress for the northern Gulf ecosystem for over a decade as well as the major force determining priorities for, and funding of, research to inform the largest interagency ecosystem management effort in the Nation.
Related Links
On-line Resources:
- Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Integrated Assessment
- Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) Program(PDF)
- Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act (HABHRCA)
- NCCOS Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Factsheet: Providing Key Information to Understand and Reduce the Impacts of Oxygen Depletion on Living Resources in the Gulf of Mexico (PDF)
- Hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico: Progress towards the completion of an Integrated Assessment
- Gulf of Mexico Action Plan
- A Science Strategy To Support Management Decisions Related To Hypoxia In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico And Excess Nutrients In The Mississippi River Basin (PDF)
Media Releases:
- NOAA INITIATES THREE-YEAR $781,000 PROJECT TO UNRAVEL GULF DEADZONE MYSTERIES
- NOAA AWARDS MORE THAN $2.25 MILLION TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF "DEAD ZONE" IMPACTS ON THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ECOSYSTEM (December, 2006)
- NOAA FORECASTS LARGER THAN NORMAL "DEAD ZONE" FOR GULF THIS SUMMER (July, 2006)
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