El Niño Forecasts
| The ability to forecast El Nino and La Nina events is extremely important as these events tend to be associated with consistent climate anomalies in the tropics and can even influence the atmosphere in midlatitudes. Forecasts are of two types; those obtained from various coupled ocean/atmosphere models those obtained from statistical models (from simple to complex). These models vary in their skill and sometimes can even do better during certain phases of ENSO than others. Forecasters try to take all this in account when making predictions. |
PSD's Forecasts: Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)
CPC ENSO diagnostics, advisories and predictions
- Offical NOAA ENSO Advisory Bulletin.
- Linear Inverse Modeling ENSO Forecast (from PSD)
(See also
details regarding this forecast)
- Statistical forecasts of SST anomalies based on current initial
conditions. SST data used in these forecasts have been provided by
NCEP, courtesy of R. W. Reynolds. Contour interval is 0.3 degrees
C.
- CCA SST Forecast (from PSD)
(See also
details regarding this forecast and the complete seasonal forecast webpage)
- A linear combination of the first 28 seasonal EOFs of tropical SST (explaining 98% of the seasonal SST variance within 20N-20S) are used
as the predictor set that maximize the correlation with an identical 28 EOFs of the SST predictand.
A set of comparison plots showing the CCA forecast with a variety of SST forecasts from other centers is also available.
CCA SST forecasts:
