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Photonics Technologies:Applications in Petroleum Refining, Building Controls, Emergency Medicine, and Industrial Materials Analysis
Economic Analysis of a Cluster of ATP-Funded Projects
Thomas M. Pelsoci
NIST GCR 05-879
September 2005
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
Abbreviations, Acronyms, and Definitions
CLUSTER STUDY OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE
FIVE PROJECTS IN THE CLUSTER STUDY
- Capillary Optics for X-Ray Focusing and Collimating
- MEMS-Based Infrared (Photonic Crystal) Micro-Sensor for Gas Detection
- Infrared Cavity Ring-Down Spectroscopy
- Optical Maximum Entropy Verification
- Integrated Micro-Optical Systems
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
- Cluster Approach: Case Studies and Overview Studies
- Public and Private Benefits
- Retrospective Versus Prospective Benefits
- Benefits Resulting from ATP Investments
BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
PROJECT HISTORY
HOW DOES IT WORK?
BENEFIT ASSESSMENT AND MODELING
- Laboratory Materials Analysis
- Process Control in Petroleum Refining and Distribution
- Process Control in Semiconductor Fabrication
BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS
- ATP and Industrial Partner Investments
- Performance Metrics
- Base-Case Analysis
- Step-Out Scenario Analysis
- Private Benefits to ATP Industry Partners
SUMMARY
PROJECT HISTORY
HOW DOES IT WORK?
BENEFIT ASSESSMENT AND MODELING
- CO2 Sensors for Emergency Medicine
- CO2 Sensors for Office Space Internal Air Quality
BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS
- ATP, NSF, and Industrial Partner Investments
- Performance Metrics
- Base-Case Analysis
- Step-Out Scenario Analysis
- Private Benefits to ATP Industry Partners
SUMMARY
INFRARED CAVITY RING-DOWN SPECTROSCOPY
OPTICAL MAXIMUM ENTROPY VERIFICATION
INTEGRATED MICRO-OPTICAL SYSTEMS
PHOTONICS PROJECT CLUSTER
BENEFITS, INVESTMENTS, AND PERFORMANCE METRICS
BASE-CASE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
BASE-CASE CLUSTER PERFORMANCE METRICS
STEP-OUT SCENARIO CLUSTER ANALYSIS
FUTURE EXTENSION OF CASH FLOW BENEFITS
ADDITIONAL PERFORMANCE METRIC: SOCIAL RATE OF RETURN
References
Appendix
About the Advanced Technology Program ............................................. Inside back cover
About the Author ........................................................................................ Inside back cover
Figures
Figure 1: Flow of Public and Private Benefits from ATP-Funded Technologies
Figure 2: X-Ray Point Source without Optics
Figure 3: (Left) Internal X-Ray Reflection from Glass Surfaces at Less than Critical Angle and
(Right) Incident X-Ray at Greater than Critical Angle
Figure 4: Capillary Optics for Focusing and Collimating X-Rays
Figure 5: Glass Capillary Optics
Figure 6: Projected Annual Savings in Laboratory Operating Costs from Use of Standalone
X-Ray Optics (2004 Dollars)
Figure 7: U.S. Network of Refined Products Pipelines
Figure 8: Cost Components of Average U.S. Diesel Price
Figure 9: Projected Annual Energy Savings from In-Line Sensor Engines Deployed at U.S.
Refineries (2004 Dollars)
Figure 10: Projected Annual Energy Savings from In-Line Sensor Engines Deployed in U.S.
Petroleum Distribution System (2004 Dollars)
Figure 11: Projected Deployment of XOS In-Line Sensor Engines in U.S. Petroleum Refineries
over 2004-2008 Period
Figure 12: Projected Sales of XOS In-Line Sensor Engines to U.S. Petroleum Distribution System
over 2005-2008 Period
Figure 13: Flow of Benefits from the X-Ray Optics Technology
Figure 14: Conventional NDIR (Cabinet Full of Discrete Components)
Figure 15: ATP-Funded Gas Sensor on a Chip
Figure 16: Rates of Emergency Ambulance Misintubation
Figure 17: Projected Benefits per 100 Intubations from Improved Detection of Failed ETIs,
Using ATP-Funded CO2 Sensors in Lieu of Colorimetric CO2 Detectors
Figure 18: Projected Annual Energy Savings from ATP-Funded CO2 Sensors in Commercial
Office Space Building Controls
Figure 19: Flow of Benefits from ATP-Funded CO2 Sensor Technology
Figure 20: Conventional NDIR (Cabinet Full of Discrete Components)
Tables
Table ES-1: Benefits from ATP's Investment in a Cluster of Photonics Projects
Table 1: Sales of X-Ray Optical Lenses over 1997-2014 Period: Retrospective and Prospective
(Number of Units)
Table 2: Projections for Sensor Engine Sales to U.S. Refineries and Pipelines
Table 3: Base-Case Cash Flows and Performance Metrics from Utilization of X-Ray Optics
Technology (2004 Dollars, in Millions)
Table 4: Step-Out Scenario Cash Flows and Performance Metrics from Utilization of X-Ray
Optics Technology (2004 Dollars, in Millions)
Table 5: Projected U.S. Market for Disposable CO2 Detectors/Sensors Unit Sales and for
IOI CO2 Sensor Unit Sales (Thousands of Units)
Table 6: Reduced In-Ambulance Mortality (Prevented Deaths)
Table 7: Projected U.S. Market for CO2 Sensors in Commercial Buildings and IOI Unit Sales
(Thousands of Units)
Table 8: Base-Case Cash Flows and Performance Metrics for ATP-Funded CO2 Sensors (2004
Dollars, in Millions)
Table 9: Step-Out Scenario Cash Flows and Performance Metrics for ATP-Funded CO2 Sensors
(2004 Dollars, in Millions)
Table 10: Cash Flows Combining ATP Investments in a Cluster of Five Photonics Projects
and Combining Benefits from Two Case Study Projects (2004 Dollars, in Millions),
Base Case
Table 11: Base-Case Performance Metrics Using Benefit Cash Flows from Two Case Studies
Against ATP Investment in a Cluster of Five Projects (2004 Dollars, in Millions)
Table 12: Base-Case and Step-Out Scenario Performance Metrics (2004 Dollars, in Millions)
Table 13: Constant Dollar Returns for the Two Case Study Projects Comparing Social Returns
and Private Returns to Estimate Spillover Gap (Benefits that ATP-Industry Partners
Are Generally Unable to Capture)
Date created: July 12, 2006
Last updated:
September 14, 2006
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