Development of coastal monitoring protocols &
process-based studies to address landscape-scale variation in coastal communities of
certain national parks in Alaska
The 2,680 km of maritime coasts contained within Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve
(GLBA), Katmai National Park and Preserve (KATM), and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and
Preserve (WRST) in Alaska represent some of the most remote, pristine coastal areas in the
United States. The apex biological resources such as marine mammals, seabirds, salmon, and
bears that are so much of the Park experience depend on healthy prey bases and habitats.
Intertidal and subtidal invertebrates and plants provide not only structure in these
coastal communities, but many of the invertebrates are important components of the diets
of these higher-order consumers. However, these biologically rich and productive
communities are facing increased anthropogenic pressures. At the present time, it is
difficult to determine if observed changes in species or variations in habitat are a
result of natural forces or anthropogenic factors. The ability to detect change is related
to the extent of variation that exists. Variation may occur in all aspects of populations
and communities (e.g., species distribution, size and age structure, abundance, birth
rates, mortality rates, dispersal abilities, composition of communities, diversity,
strengths of interactions within communities). As variation in any parameter increases,
the ability to detect change in that parameter (and the population or community in
question) decreases, assuming equal sampling effort. Variation may be reduced and the
power to detect change increased by stratifying the populations and communities along
known gradients of variation, or by increasing sampling effort. Increased sampling costs
more, while stratified sampling reduces the ability to make inferences beyond the stratum
sampled. Managers will need to make a series of assessments and decisions prior to
designing a monitoring program. These include: what level of inventory and knowledge of
variation in the coastal communities is known; the level of change that they want to be
able to detect; whether they want to focus on particular habitats, species or communities;
whether they want to take a population approach; what risks they are most concerned about
in the near-term; what long-term risks they want to take into account; which species,
assemblages, or communities would be sensitive ecological indicators of change; do they
want results of monitoring to be able to be generalized to zones, habitats, or the entire
park coastline; how do they expect to make the program sustainable; what resources, both
human and financial, are available for long-term monitoring; and how frequently do they
want to monitor resources. We propose to provide managers with a cost-benefit analysis of
several different monitoring designs (broad-scale inferential; nested inferential
[selected habitat, coarse-grained]; and intensive sampling [selected habitat,
fine-grained]). It is possible to incorporate at least several levels into a nested design
with the purpose of quantifying both the costs associated with the design elements and the
power to detect change. This analysis, combined with further discussion, should facilitate
the decisions that managers need to make in designing a long-term monitoring program.
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