The mission of the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP)
is to advance climate change science and improve climate change projections
using state-of-the-science coupled climate models, on time scales of decades
to centuries and space scales of regional to global.
Program Goal
The CCPP goal is to develop, test, and apply state-of-the-science computer-based
global climate simulation models, based on theoretical climate-science foundations
and to take advantage of emerging high performance computing and information
technologies. The objective is to increase dramatically both the accuracy
and the throughput of computer model-based projections of climatic variability
and change in order to enable sound decision-making on issues pertaining
to future energy use and technology options.
The CCPP contributes directly to the BER Long Term Measure of Scientific
Advancement of delivering improved climate data and models needed to determine
acceptable levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The Program also
contributes to the Climate Variability and Change element of the
U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP),
and coordinates its activities with the climate modeling programs at other
federal agencies, particularly the National Science Foundation (NSF), the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA).
Program Components
Present CCPP research activities are organized into several distinct,
but coordinated components.
Long-term Basic Research
Research Grants: The CCPP supports research at universities
and other institutions through a competitive, peer-reviewed grants program.
The funded projects are devoted to long-term basic research addressing
climate science and, through the CCPP’s association with the DOE
Office of Science’s (SC’s)
Scientific
Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) Program, advanced numerical
methods useful in climate simulation on high-performance computer systems.
Climate Model of the Future Project: The DOE SciDAC program, through
the CCPP, supports a cooperative agreement with Colorado State University
to develop and test a prototype of the next generation of coupled climate
models. Researchers are building and testing a coupled atmosphere-ocean
general circulation model based on geodesic grids, quasi-Lagrangian vertical
coordinates, and modern numerical algorithms to simulate and predict
climatic variability and change over decadal to centennial time scales.
This prototype will provide a foundation to test innovative techniques,
which might be used in production models 5-10 years from now, and to
understand long term climatic variability and predict climatic changes.
As of October 2004, the construction of all primary model components
has been completed, and testing is under way. Additional information
about the project is available at
http://kiwi.atmos.colostate.edu/DOE_Cooperative_Agreement/
Climate Model Development and Evaluation
The CCPP development and application projects are focused on the
Community
Climate System Model (CCSM), a community modeling program based at
the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The CCSM, which is
supported jointly by the NSF and the DOE is a fully-coupled, global climate
model that provides state-of-the-science computer simulations of the Earth's
past, present, and future climate states.
CCPP Community Climate System Modeling Consortium Project: The DOE Community
Climate System Modeling Consortium Project (supported by the DOE SciDAC
program through the CCPP) is carried out at six DOE national laboratories
(Argonne, Lawrence Berkeley, Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, Oak Ridge,
and Pacific Northwest) and the NCAR. Software engineering is a key focus
of the project, including climate model and framework development for
vector and massively parallel terascale computing platforms. The project
also supports basic development of ocean, sea ice, atmospheric chemistry
(including aerosols), and biogeochemistry models for future CCSM simulations.
Additional information about the project is available at
http://www.scidac.org/CCSM/
Climate, Ocean, and Sea Ice Modeling Project: The CCPP sponsors the
Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling Project (COSIM)
at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The COSIM project provides
the ongoing development and distribution of (1) the Parallel Ocean Program
(POP) ocean general circulation model, which is the ocean component of
the CCSM; and (2) the LANL Sea Ice Model (CICE), which is one option
for the sea ice component of the CCSM. In addition to coupled climate
simulations, COSIM researchers apply POP, CICE and other ocean models
to a variety of ocean and sea ice problems, including eddy-resolving
ocean simulations, studies of the thermohaline circulation, and polar
ice feedbacks.
Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison: The
CCPP sponsors the
Program for Climate
Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory. The PCMDI works with national and international
model development groups to identify the shortcomings of present climate
models by independently providing universal diagnostic tools for evaluating
climate model performance. Many of these tools are built into the Climate
Data Analysis Tool software package that is freely distributed and used
by many groups in the U.S.and Europe. PCMDI also provides major facilities
for archiving climate model output, including the model simulations used
for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4), and making it readily accessible to the climate modeling
community. The
CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT)
at PCMDI uses numerical weather prediction methods to provide climate
model developers a means to evaluate new parameterization schemes for
processes such as cloud physics and convection in the context of a full
atmospheric general circulation model without the need for long climate
integrations. The CAPT is a key resource to improve climate models using
data from
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM).
Climate Simulation and Prediction
CCSM Climate Change Working Group Support: The end-product
of the CCPP is the simulation and prediction of contemporary climate
and possible future climates using the state-of-science coupled climate
models. In addition to the CCSM suite of climate simulation codes is
the DOE supported Parallel Climate Model (PCM), developed specifically
for efficient multi-century climatic change simulations on highly parallel
supercomputers. The new CCSM version 3 was released in the 2004 and the
group is performing higher-resolution historical simulations and future
century time-scale predictions for the Intergovermental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). These multi-century simulations
are coordinated through the CCSM Climate Change Working Group, which
is co-chaired by CCPP scientists. Results from these simulations are
being extensively analyzed by scientists throughout the world and serve
as critical input to major national and international assessments of
possible future climatic changes. Scientists can obtain the model data
through the SciDAC sponsored Earth System Grid portals at NCAR and PCMDI.
Program Manager
Dr. Anjuli Bamzai
Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, SC-23.1
Department of Energy, GTN Bldg.
1000 Independence Ave, SW
Washington, DC 20585-1290
Phone: (301) 903-0294
Fax: (301) 903-8519
Internet: anjuli.bamzai@science.doe.gov