Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections

This file represents Table 1. Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016, in "The U.S. Economy to 2016: slower growth as boomers begin to retire," published in the November 2007 Monthly Labor Review.

Table 1. Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016
Exogenous variables Billions of chained 2000 dollars
(unless noted)		 Average annual rate
of change
 1986   1996   2006   2016  1986-
       96 		 1996-
     2006		 2006-
       16 

Monetary policy-related:

Federal funds rate (percent)

 6.81 5.30 4.96 5.15 -2.5 -0.7 0.4

Excess reserves (billions of current dollars)

 0.89 1.09 1.62 2.49 2.1 4.0 4.4

Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)

 5.98 5.01 4.73 4.79 -1.8 -0.6 0.1

Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent)

 7.68 6.44 4.79 5.63 -1.8 -2.9 1.6
 

Fiscal policy, tax-related:

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent)

 25.9 22.5 21.4 21.4 -1.4 -0.5 0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent)

 25.7 24.3 23.0 23.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent)

 34.3 27.8 22.5 22.5 -2.1 -2.1 0.0

Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent)

 40.0 25.7 15.0 15.0 -4.3 -5.2 0.0

Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent)

 46.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 -2.7 0.0 0.0
 

Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related:

Defense intermediate goods and services purchased

 147.0 120.3 209.7 239.9 -2.0 5.7 1.4

Defense gross investment

 69.5 51.3 76.6 94.2 -3.0 4.1 2.1

Nondefense intermediate goods and services purchased

 53.1 61.0 96.5 104.7 1.4 4.7 0.8

Nondefense gross investment

 19.3 28.6 38.5 37.9 4.0 3.0 -0.2

Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars)

 87.6 191.1 358.5 588.5 8.1 6.5 5.1

Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars)

 75.3 195.7 393.8 900.0 10.0 7.2 8.6
 

Energy-related:

Refiners' acquisition cost of imported oil (nominal dollars per barrel)

 14.3 20.6 58.9 55.2 3.7 11.1 -0.6

Domestic share of U.S. crude oil acquisitions (as percentage of total acquisitions)

 67.5 46.3 33.6 35.8 -3.7 -3.2 0.7

Domestic oil product

 37.8 32.1 29.1 26.3 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0
 

Demographic-related:

Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions)

 240.4 269.8 300.4 327.0 1.2 1.1 0.9

Population aged 16 and over (in millions)

 180.6 200.6 228.8 250.6 1.1 1.3 0.9

SOURCE: Historical data, Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, and U.S. Census Bureau; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, and U.S. Census Bureau.

Back to top

 

Last Modified Date: December 27, 2007