Aug.
20, 1998: (This is the fifth in a series
of stories covering the ongoing CAMEX mission to hunt hurricane
data in a way not done since the 50s. Other
stories are linked in below.)
At 4 p.m. EDT, August 20, a tropical
storm warning was issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.
A watch remained in effect for much of the northern Leeward Islands.
The CAMEX-3 team may soon get its chance
to monitor the growth of a hurricane and what happens when it
wades ashore. Forecasters for the CAMEX-3 program say that a
tropical depression (TD 02) in the mid-Atlantic Ocean may develop
into a tropical storm - which would then be named Bonnie - by
late Thursday, and could become a hurricane aimed at Patrick
Air Force Base, Fla., where the team is based.
"Emphasis
on H. Bonnie. Xpct to fly it A LOT!! Watch waves following for
development," reads meteorologist R.Wohlman's long-range
forecast for the next 3 to 5 days on the CAMEX-3 web site.
Left:
This National Hurricane Center display shows the probability
that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 120
km (75 mi) of a location during the next 72 hours. Contour levels
shown are 10%, 20%, 50% and 100% (links to 16KB
image).
The
CAMEX-3 team is closely studying TD 02 and may launch its first
study mission (as compared to test mission flown earlier this
week) as soon as this weekend.
In the tropics, a weak wave is passing through Hispaniola,
and appears to be weakening due to the effects of that island
and Cuba. Preceding this is a weak upper level circulation just
to the southeast of Florida. This will tend to suppress convection
in the southern half of the state throughout the period.
Right:
ER-2 pilot Bill Collette prepares to fly a CAMEX mission earlier
this week. The resemblance of his flight suit to the Shuttle
astronaut's flight suits is no coincidence: the two designs have
a common heritage (links to 91KB
image). credit: Bill Ingalls/NASA
Then, as the trough (low-pressure area) passes through tomorrow
afternoon, meteorologists predict an increase in activity. Following
this wave is TD 02 at 17N 53W early today. It is expected to
move west-northwest at 37 km/h (20 kt, or 23 mph). This speed
has increased over the last day from from 18-28 km/h (10-15 kt.),
and should develop to hurricane strength over the next 3 days.
By
Saturday, TS Bonnie should be near 20.5N 64W by 8 a.m. Friday,
21 , 21.7N 67.0W at 8 p.m. Friday.
Left:
Ready to go. A wide-angle view inside hangar at Patrick AFB shows
the ER-2, with nose partially open, spanning the foreground,
and the UND Citation partially visible at left middle ground
(links to 49KB image).
credit: Bill Ingalls/NASA
In the 48- to 72-hour forecast, Bonnie - if it continues to
strengthen - will be at 23N 70W by 8 a.m. Saturday, and become
a hurricane around 8 a.m. Sunday at 25.5N 73.5W. Estimates have
it beginning to recurve into the trough between high-pressure
regions over Bermuda and the continental U.S. This early in the
game, errors my be large, and warm water in the Caribbean Sea
and strong easterlies may move the storm westward.
Note: More details
are available in the NASA press
release describing CAMEX-3. Check back as hurricane season
progresses. We will post science updates as the campaign develops.
PIX: High resolution scans of 35mm camera photos from
the CAMEX-3 campaign are available from Public Affairs Office
at NASA headquarters. Please call the NASA Headquarters Photo
Department at 202-358-1900, or contact Bill Ingalls at bingalls@hq.nasa.gov.
CAMEX Series Headlines
August 12:
Overview CAMEX story , describes
the program in detail.
August 13: CAMEX
maiden flight , for calibration
of TRMM satellite instruments
August 14: CAMEX
test flights , CAMEX flies over
tropical storm weather in successful calibration run
August 18: CAMEX
aircraft make second flight with TRMM
, second calibration run for TRMM
August 20: CAMEX
may get first chance at a tropical storm , later this week (this story)
August 21:
Here comes Bonnie! , CAMEX scheduled
to fly over T.S. Bonnie
August 22: West by Northwest ,
CAMEX team may have to evacuate to Georgia
August 24: Eye-to-eye, and Bonnie
winks, CAMEX team makes first flight through eye
August 25: Snow in August,
Bonnie surprises the hurricane team
August 26: Camera of many colors
Hurricane hunters using advanced scanner to peer into storms
August 28: Preparing for Danielle
NASA team takes break as Bonnie fades away
August 31: Quite a Windfall Hurricane
team completes first half of unique science campaign
September 2: Bonnie Cuts a Towering
Figure Satellite radar shows mountainous cloud chimney
September 4: Hurricane team studies
Earl Four aircraft probe storm
September 10: NASA team awaits
next hurricane
September 16:
Hurricane season passing its prime Thunderstorm
studies continue as a new hurricane candidate wends its way from
Africa.
September 18: Two new storms brewing
for hurricane research team Scientists fly 4 out of 5
days, clear air sampled over the Bahamas, oceanic convection
data collected east of Cape Canaveral
September 21:The last hurricane
- CAMEX team wrapping up campaign with flights into Georges
September 23: Hurricane Georges
puts on a light show - CAMEX team treated to purple sprites
and weird lightning
NCAR has an extensive writeup on the GPS
dropsondes used in CAMEX-3 and other atmospheric campaigns.
A new study - not related to CAMEX-3 - by
the Arizona State University suggests a
link between hurricanes in the northwest Atlantic and air pollution. |
CAMEX-3 - the third Convection and Moisture
Experiment - is an interagency project to measure hurricane dynamics
at high altitude, a method never employed before over Atlantic
storms. From this, scientists hope to understand better how hurricanes
are powered and to improve the tools they use to predict hurricane
intensity.
An overview
story (Aug. 12, 1998) describes
the program in detail. The study is part of NASA's Earth Science
enterprise to better understand the total Earth system and the
effects of natural and human-induced changes on the global environment.
Web Links |
CAMEX-3 home page contains
links to daily flight operations and instrument descriptions.
Lightning
Imaging Sensor
aboard the TRMM satellite observes lightning from above the clouds
- and my lead to better warnings on the ground.
MACAWS uses the Doppler
effect (red and blue shifts) to measure wind velocity.
SPARCLE is a Space Shuttle experiment
set for 2001 to demonstrate laser wind measurement from space. |
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