This year saw journal publications across the full range of TMAP
science activities. Two papers examined aspects of the processes that
affect the upper ocean carbonate system and our ability to observe pCO2 (Murphy et
al. 1998, Loukos et al, 1998). Another used data from the TAO array
to test the ability of the Cane-Zebiak ENSO forecast model to reproduce observations,
and found the model lacking (Bennett et al, 1998). Another described the
space-time structure of tropical Pacific Westerly Wind Events, which appear
to be important for the onset of El Niño events (Harrison and Vecchi,
1998). Another was a summary of oceanic modeling activities directed to understanding
both the seasonal and interannual variability of the tropical Pacific (Stockdale
et al, 1998). Harrison and Larkin (1998a) described
the statistically significant global ocean surface temperature and wind anomalies
that have been associated with El Niño periods since
WWII, and introduced a new multivariate index for El Niño monitoring. Harrison and Larkin (1998b) describe
the statistically significant US seasonal weather anomalies that have been
associated with the post-WWII El Niño periods, and
compare them with the observed 1997-98 weather anomalies. Craig et al (1998)
used PMEL CFC data to explore the model ventillation pathways in a state
of the art global ocean circulation model.
References
Thermal Modeling and Analysis Project
Scientific Plans for FY 99
This year should see publication of journal papers on: a simple
parameterization of equatorial Pacific pCO2 in terms of SST and SSS, a model/data
study of upper ocean equatorial eastward jets during 1991-92 and the extent
to which their dynamics differ from simple Kelvin wave balances, a model/data
study of a simple direct wind-forced mechanism for why the equatorial thermocline
shallows over the last 3-6 months of El Niño events, and a second model-data study concerning
the TAO data and the Cane-Zebiak model under different oceanic conditions. Hindcast
studies of the oceanic varibility during El Niño periods are underway
and at least one publication should be submitted by the end of the year. The
statistically significant ocean surface temperature changes that follow Westerly
Wind Events, and the relationship(s) between WWEs and the ENSO cycle have been
described and will be submitted for review. More ocean carbon sampling study
work is underway, to support the developing Carbon System Science national
initiative. Some of the meteorological changes that occur during atmospheric
blocking events over the North Pacific when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
is positive or negative are being explored and a note should be prepared for
publication. Harrison will continue to participate on international GCOS/GOOS
panels, on the US GODAE Steering Group, the NOAA Seasonal-to-Interannual Strategic
Planning Team and on the US GOOS Steering Committee.