PMEL Programs and Plans
Accomplishments in FY 98 and Plans for FY 99
Accomplishments in FY 98
During FY 1998, Fisheries-Oceanography
Coordinated Investigations (FOCI) led 12 research
cruises, and participated in 4 others, to the North Pacific, Gulf of
Alaska, and Bering Sea during spring, summer, and fall. Activities
included deployment and recovery of moorings and biophysical platforms,
surveys of marine life, measurement of water properties, and studies of
processes that affect the ecosystem. During summer and fall, FOCI
again documented a bloom of coccolithophorid phytoplankton concurrent with
another commercial failure of the Bristol Bay salmon fishery. Information
from FOCI's field operations may be instrumental in explaining why these
events happened.
FOCI, one of a few marine fisheries oceanography programs in the world
predicting recruitment, made its seventh annual prediction
of pollock year-class strength for Shelikof Strait: average recruitment
for the 1998 year class. Developed in 1992, the Shelikof Recruitment Index
(SRI) is based on process-oriented studies, field surveys, and numerical
modeling experiments. This index is used to predict the abundance
of age-0 and age-1 walleye pollock that will survive to recruit to the
Shelikof Strait, Gulf of Alaska, fishery as adults. SRI incorporates
environmental estimates such as rainfall, wind mixing, advection, and larval
abundance, and predictions by SRI compare favorably with actual recruitment.
Together with spawning biomass estimates also produced by FOCI, the index
provides fishery-independent
information that helps National Marine Fisheries Service stock assessment
scientists project future stock sizes. These projections help the
North Pacific Fishery Management Council establish fishing quotas
for the Gulf of Alaska.
Southeast Bering Sea Carrying
Capacity (SEBSCC) concluded its first research cycle (1996-1998) for
NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program. Objectives were to examine cross-shelf
transport, the fate of nutrients, and juvenile pollock as a nodal species.
Results
from the project support the need to continue monitoring of the productive
southeastern Bering Sea shelf to better understand the response of the
ecosystem to climate forcing. Contrasts in the environment of the
Bering Sea shelf and slope from observations made during 1996, 1997, and
1998 underscore the strong interannual variability in the ecosystem.
Seasonal pack ice extent and duration, wind-driven mixing over the shelf
during spring and summer, summertime sea surface temperature, mixed layer
depth, timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom, summer nutrient
reservoir concentrations, seabird mortality, and salmon returns varied
widely during the first research cycle. One hypothesis is that oceanographic
conditions, and, to a degree, biological responses, are controlled by climate/weather
fluctuations. For example, the position and strength of the Aleutian
Low affects the direction and intensity of winds over the Bering Sea.
Those winds largely control the duration and extent of seasonal pack ice
which influence the cold pool, a persistent area of cold, sub-surface water.
These features, in turn, affect the timing of the spring bloom and cannibalism
of juvenile pollock by adults.
FOCI scientists were active in meetings
conducted by NOAA, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and the U.S.
Department of the Interior to inventory research being conducted in the
Bering Sea and to recommend future directions. FOCI scientists proactively
forged a foundation for the Draft Science Plan for the Bering Sea Ecosystem.
This document has received extensive comment from science, industry, and
the general public, and has been endorsed by several bodies.
FOCI also supported the upgrade of the Bering
Sea and North Pacific Ocean Theme Page. The theme page provides
pointers to information and images generated by NOAA, universities and
other governmental sources. Included are links to up-to-date satellite
imagery, new research, and educational material related to the North Pacific
Ocean and the Bering Sea. The theme page also links to historical
and real-time data, and to the Bering
Sea Ecosystem Biophysical Metadatabase, a resource for locating data
pertaining to the Bering Sea ecosystem.
Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigation
Plans for FY 99
-
Conduct spring and fall research
cruises to the North Pacific, Gulf of Alaska, and Bering Sea supporting
physical and biophysical research for FOCI, SEBSCC, Arctic Research Initiative,
and associated programs.
-
Contract for
SEBSCC Phase
II research.
-
Convene an international workshop
to discuss recent conditions in the Bering Sea.
-
Forecast recruitment of 1999 walleye pollock year class for Shelikof Strait.
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