During the 2003 Flight Forecast season, be sure to visit this page every school day for some interesting information about meteorology, flight, and/or the Wright Brothers.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2003 "This flight lasted only 12 seconds, but it was nevertheless the first in the history of the world in which a machine carrying a man had raised itself by its own power into the air in full flight, had sailed forward without reduction of speed and had finally landed at a point as high as that from which it started." ~ Orville Wright

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2003 This year, the Winter Solstice in North America will occur on December 22. The Winter Solstice is sometimes called the "shortest day" of the year because it has the fewest hours of daylight. Since December 17 is so close to the Solstice, it too will be a "short day." In Kitty Hawk, sunrise is expected at 7:06AM, with sunset at 4:50PM. That leaves just nine hours and forty-four minutes to celebrate the magnificence of the Wright Brothers and their First Flight.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2003 On Monday, December 14, 1903, the Wright Brothers carried the Flyer to the track. A toss of a coin gave Wilbur the honor of making the first flight. The Flyer lifted off that day, but immediately sank down. The plane was slightly damaged, but it was repaired by Thursday, December 17 when they were ready to go again. Wilbur honored the coin toss, so it was Orville's turn, and so it was Orville who made the first flight.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2003 The 1903 Flyer survived four flights on the morning of December 17, 1903. That afternoon, it was damaged and never flew again. Do you know what damaged the Flyer? The weather! A strong gust of wind lifted the Flyer and tossed it to the ground, damaging some of the mechanical parts.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2003 The weather in December can be tricky to predict. For example, on this date during the past ten years, the high temperature has ranged from 34 degrees to 64 degrees! Start watching the weather to see what the temperature is this year.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 10, 2003 The Centennial of Flight is just one week away! By now, you can start to watch the professional weather forecasts by visiting websites like The Weather Channel or The Weather Underground. Is your forecast different? Don't worry! A lot can change in a week!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 9, 2003 Students in grades nine through twelve had the toughest condition to predict: the highest gust speed of the day! The range of predictions is extreme, from 1 mile per hour all the way up to 80 miles per hour! If that prediction comes true, everyone will need to hold on to more than their hats!

MONDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2003 The 2003 Flight Forecast seems have been most popular at grades five through eight. Fifty-two percent of the participating students are in those grades. Thirty percent of the participating students are in grades K through four. Eighteen percent are in grades nine through twelve.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2003 What will the temperature be at 10:35AM EST at the Centennial of Flight celebration? The predictions vary! A student in Ms. Kruizenga's class in the North Crawford School District in Soldiers Grove, Wisconsin predicts that the temperature will be -13! At the other extreme, a student in Ms. Tupler's class at Lawton Chiles Elementary School in Tampa, Florida predicts a reading of 98 degrees!

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2003 The second most popular forecast calls for clear skies at 10:35AM EST. Thirty-two percent of the forecasters predict clear skies. Eleven percent of the forecasts call for rain, and just seven percent predict snow.

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2003 The analysis of historical weather data seems to suggest a pattern. Fifty percent of the submitted forecasts call for cloudy conditions at 10:35AM EST! Are you in the majority?

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 2, 2003 Will the early birds get the worm? Some 2003 Flight Forecasters qualify as early birds. The very first class to register was Ms. Heatherly's first grade at Mitchell Road Elementary School in Greenville, South Carolina. The very first class to submit forecasts was Mr. McCandless' sixth grade at Berea Middle School which is also located in Greenville, South Carolina. Apparently, the students in Greenville are eager to learn!

MONDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2003 Some of the states that had many schools registered for the 2003 Flight Forecast program are Texas (43 schools), Pennsylvania (37), North Carolina (30), New York (26), and Virginia (18).

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2003 Wilbur and Orville Wright would have celebrated Thanksgiving Day 1903 at their campsite on the Outer Banks, separated from their family. Today, one of the busiest travel days of the year, many Americans will board commercial airliners in order to reunite with family and friends to celebrate the holiday. Perhaps they might pause to thank the Wright Brothers for making it possible. Happy Thanksgiving!

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2003 All four corners of the contiguous United States are represented in the 2003 Flight Forecast program. Mr. Hurd's students at the Greater Houlton Christian Academy in Houlton, Maine are way up in the Northeast corner. Ms. King's students in El Cajon, California are in the Southwest corner. In the Northwest corner, Mr. Bencivengo's students are participating at Mercer Island High School in Washington. In the Southeast, Ms. Gant's students at Carol City Elementary School are making their forecasts from Miami Gardens, Florida.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 24, 2003 Mr. Birdsall's students in Hawaii are competing with Ms. Holland's students at Manteo High School, which is located in North Carolina, close to the Wright Brothers National Memorial. Do you think that gives the students an advantage? Not really; when it comes to the science of meteorology, one forecaster's prediction is as good as the next, no matter where they live and work!

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2003 Participating students range from Kindergarten all the way up to grade 12! For example, Mr. Birdsall's high school students are participating from Waipahu High School in Hawaii! That's quite a great distance away from the Outer Banks of North Carolina!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2003 The largest majority of the participating schools (360) are public schools, with the other schools being distributed almost evenly between private schools and other kinds of educational institutions.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2003 The teachers and students who are participating in the 2003 Flight Forecast program represent forty-seven states, plus the District of Columbia! There are also three schools participating from American military bases located in Japan, England, and Germany!

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2003 Have you been wondering how many students participated in the 2003 Flight Forecast program? 465 teachers registered, representing over 25,000 students who have been working to determine the most accurate weather forecast for the Centennial of Flight!

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2003 The first successful trans-Atlantic flight was made in 1919 by Captain John Alcock and his navigator, Lieutenant Arthur Whitten Brown. If you thought Charles Lindbergh held this record, you're not alone. It's a common misconception. Lindbergh's famous 1927 flight was the first solo trans-Atlantic crossing. Alcock and Brown, two British aviators, had made the crossing eight years earlier.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2003 Aviation was advanced by cash prizes offered, mostly in Europe, to encourage development and reward the feats of brave pioneers. For example, in 1908, the Grand Prix d'Aviation was won by Henri Farman, the first person to fly one kilometer in a circular course. Also in 1908, Wilbur Wright won the Michelin Prize for flight duration with a flight that lasted 2.3 hours. In 1909, Louise Bleriot won the prize, offered by the Daily Mail (a newspaper), for crossing the English Channel.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2003 After the Aerial Experiment Association disbanded in February, 1909, Alexander Graham Bell switched his attention to watercraft. On September 19, 1919 Bell's HD-4 hydrofoil set a world speed record of 70.86 miles per hour!

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2003 In April, 1908, the Wrights were back in the peace and quiet of Kitty Hawk updating the 1905 Flyer to the new Model A. Working from their rebuilt camp, they tested the new machine, including a sand bag in the extra seat to mimic a passenger. When Charlie Furnas climbed aboard in place of the sand bag, the mechanic from Dayton became their first airline passenger.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2003 Once they had a proven airplane, the Wrights still had to convince others of their success and then take the next step to market and start production of their historic invention. Their United States patent, number 821,343, applied for in 1903 and granted in 1906, protected their invention, but they had to stay aware of, and bring legal suits against, others to maintain their achievement.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2003 Railroads changed America in the 19th Century, transporting Americans from coast to coast and from the old way-of-life to the new. Before the railroads, ships at sea carried humans from old places to new. So, it seems fitting that Wilbur and Orville Wright used both railroad and boat on their journey to flight. The rails carried them from Dayton, Ohio to Elizabeth City, North Carolina. A boat transported them across the Albemarle Sound to the Outer Banks with the soft sand dunes of Kill Devil Hills waiting to witness the next transformation of human transportation.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2003 In 1910, "Scientific American" magazine published this statement in an article: "To affirm that the airplane is going to revolutionize the future is to be guilty of the wildest exaggeration..." Only wild dreamers like Wilbur and Orville Wright imagined where the airplane would carry humanity. Wilbur died too young, but Orville lived to see both World Wars. Both Brothers had died, however, before human beings walked on the moon.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2003 On September 30, 1907, Alexander Graham Bell established the Aerial Experiment Association. Its members constructed and flew experimental aircraft. The Wrights were not members, but they did respect Bell so they willingly answered questions from the Association.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2003 On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur flipped a coin to see who would go first. On December 17, 2003, Terry Queijo (pronounced KAY-JO) and Dr. Kevin Kochersberger will flip a coin to see who pilots the 1903 Wright Flyer reproduction for its flight at the Wright Brothers National Memorial.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2003 The Experimental Aircraft Association's 1903 Wright Flyer reproduction will fly on December 17, 2003 at the national Centennial of Flight celebration. The reproduction, built by The Wright Experience Team in Virginia, is a 605-pound aircraft handmade primarily of wood, steel, and muslin.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2003 The Wright Brothers might not have succeeded in 1903 without the help of Octave Chanute. Born in Paris in 1832, Chanute came to America at age 6 with his parents. Chanute became one of the most important transportation engineers in American history. After a successful career designing important railroads and bridges, he became interested in flight. Chanute died in 1910.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2003 The Wright Brothers submitted their first application for a patent on the design of the 1903 Flyer on March 23, 1903, nearly nine months before they were sure it would fly! Unfortunately, their application was rejected several times because they had not provided enough specific detail. Even today, some of the exact details of the 1903 Flyer design remain a mystery.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2003 Airline pilots receive weather reports and forecasts in Zulu time. In Zulu time, there is no AM or PM. The day is measured as 24 hours that begin at 00:01 (one minute after midnight), continue through 12:00 (at midday), and end at 24:00 (midnight).

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2003 The jet stream is a river of air that moves very quickly at high altitude, above the air levels where most of our local weather changes occur. It usually flows from West to East in the middle latitudes which include the United States and much of Canada. The stream separates warm tropical air from cold polar air, so its movement effects the weather directly beneath it. A dip to the South will cause a change to cold weather in much of the United States, while movement to the North will bring increased warm weather.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2003 During October of 1903, life at the Kill Devil Hills campsite was cold, wet, and windy. The Wright Brothers spent time waiting for a major storm to pass. The storm arrived at the Outer Banks on October 8th and lingered for over a week. They noted windspeeds of 75 miles per hour and several inches of water inside their camp buildings.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2003 During the winter, airports in colder climates have to "de-ice" airplanes right before they take-off for flight. The de-icing fluid that gets sprayed on the outside of the airplane contains a mixture that includes ethylene glycol or propylene glycol, which is similar to the anti-freeze used in cars. Ice on the outside of the airplane creates rough patches on the smooth surface, which creates resistance and causes differences in the lift force needed to take off and stay airborne.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2003 Caused by air flow from areas of high to low pressure, Wind direction is also influenced by the rotation of the earth and the different heat properties of oceans and continents. As a result, the prevailing wind directions vary across the globe. In the United States, the prevailing winds are westerly, which means that a flight from California to New York will usually be about 45 minutes shorter than a flight in the opposite direction.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2003 Lightning strikes do not harm modern airplanes, although they may leave some small burn marks at the first strike's location. The electric charge travels through the airplane's metal outer skin and then out into the air. There is a slight chance that electrical control systems could be damaged, but sophisticated lightning protection systems have been developed to prevent extensive damage.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2003 Air density effects flight. If air density is low, the lift force can be weakened because there is less force on the wings. The airplane's thrust can be reduced because the propellers move less air and exhaust gases are lighter.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2003 On December 17, 1903, the Wright Brothers achieved sustained, controlled, powered flight. The key word may be "controlled." In fact, the Wright Brothers solution for the control of the Flyer's roll, pitch, and yaw may be the most outstanding part of their inventive achievement, a breakthrough that no other inventors had made. Try a classroom activity that demonstrates roll, pitch, and yaw.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 20, 2003 The Wright Brothers were crafty, clever, and courageous. They risked their lives every time they lifted off in their experimental airplanes. They explored the air with its changeable currents and unpredictable conditions in exactly the same way that early mariners explored the sea, and the dangers were similar. In fact, they made a promise to their father that they would never fly together so that he would never have to suffer the loss of two sons. In the end, Wilbur and Orville both died at home.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2003 Weather happens in the troposphere, which spans five miles above the Earth, but most weather events happen below 15,000 feet. That's why airplanes climb up higher into the troposphere, up around 30,000 feet, so that the flight is less likely to be bothered by bad weather. Of course, take-off and landing can still be bumpy, as the airplane passes through the lower elevation!

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2003 The oceans and the atmosphere actually have a lot in common. Both are effected by the Coriolis force, first described in 1835 by a French scientist named Gustave-Gaspard Coriolis, which causes currents to rotate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Where does the Coriolis force equal zero? At the equator!

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2003 Sarah Wright instructed and encouraged her sons in their mechanical aptitude. She was the daughter of a carriage maker, had studied mathematics and science at college in Indiana, and used her skill with tools to build toys and household appliances. Sarah died of tuberculosis fourteen years before her sons reached their crowning achievement.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2003 Airplane pilots need all available weather information in order to prepare a safe and efficient flight plan. The information comes in the form of weather reports and weather forecasts. Reports contain data on actual conditions along the route, such as wind speed and visibility. Forecasts are computer-based projections of the same conditons as they are expected to occur.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2003 The aneroid barometer is a sealed metal box with flexible sides from which most of the air has been removed. The sides of the box move slightly with any change in air pressure. This movement is mechanically magnified and registered on a dial or read-out device. An airplane's altimeter is basically a barometer modified to indicate height (altitude) changes rather than pressure readings.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2003 Can you believe these extreme weather records? The hottest U.S. temperature ever recorded was 134 degrees Fahrenheit at Death Valley, California on July 10, 1913 The coldest U.S. temperature ever recorded was -80 degrees Fahrenheit at Prospect Creek, Alaska on January 23, 1971. The wettest day saw 43 inches of rain in Alvin, Texas on July 25-26, 1979. The largest hailstone ever found was 7 inches in diameter in Aurora, Nebraska on June 22, 2003.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2003 Wind tunnels are an indispensible tool in aviation design. They simulate a variety of weather conditions so that designers can test models before building full-size aircraft. A wind tunnel has a closed channel through which air is forced. In the test section of the tunnel, where the scale models are placed, the airflow is controlled while instruments measure the aerodynamic properties of the models. The Wright brothers built their wind tunnel just 30 years after the first one was invented.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2003 Meteorologists need to learn the names of these severe weather scales so that they can help people when severe weather strikes. The Fujita-Pearson Scale measures the degree of damage caused by a tornado. The Palmer Drought Index measures and maps the time and strength of weather patterns that cause drought. The Haines Index uses air stability measurements from above wildfires to predict the chances of the fire spreading. The Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, based on wind speed, rates the intensity of hurricanes and therefore the potential for damage and flooding.

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2003 The wind chill temperature index was devised to indicate how cold people and animals feel when outdoors. The "wind chill" refers to a skin sensation so can only be applied to living creatures. The calculation is based on air temperature and wind speed; increasing wind always makes it feel much colder. For example, at an outside temperature of zero degrees Fahrenheit and wind speed of 15 mph the wind chill of -19 degrees Fahrenheit will quickly cause exposed skin to freeze.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 6, 2003 Weather records for the Outer Banks of North Carolina show that December can be an unpredictable month. The wind speed can vary from zero to more tham 40 miles per hour! The temperatures can range from 30 to almost 70 degrees Fahrenheit! When Wilbur and Orville Wright checked the weather charts from Kitty Hawk, they were looking at monthly averages not day-to-day extremes. On December 17, 1903, their first flights were made in winds of 20-30 miles per hour and temperatures in the 30s.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2003 The atmospheric pressure at "mile high" Coors Stadium in Denver is around 15% less than sea level pressure. In the thinner air, baseballs travel further and get there faster. The same hit that would power a ball to fly 400 feet at sea level will fly 430 feet at "mile high" elevation. Unfortunately, it is only the power hitters who get the benefit; less powerful hits only see a tiny increase in distance.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2003 Baseball players also have to consider the humidity. While the effect of humidity on the flight of a baseball is small, it does make the ball heavier and less flexible and can shorten a 400 foot hit by 15 feet!

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2003 Wind speed and direction are very important factors in aviation, where they can have life or death consequences. The wind is also an important factor in outdoor sports, although the consequences are less serious. Wrigley Field, where the Chicago Cubs play baseball, in the Windy City sits close to Lake Michigan and demonstrates how wind strength and direction can be the biggest weather influence of all on the outcome of a ballgame.

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