From the November 1998 SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESSThis article presents new estimates of gross product, or gross product originating (GPO), by industry for 1997 and revised estimates for 1995–96; it also presents new and revised estimates of gross output and intermediate inputs by industry./1/ The new and revised estimates incorporate the results of the annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's) released in July 1998 and newly available source data./2/ In addition, this article includes the tables of GPO prices and unit costs that were first introduced in March 1998 to provide insight into the sources of change in the aggregate price level by industry and to identify the sources of GPO price change among the cost components of GPO./3/
This comprehensive presentation of these integrated estimates of GPO, gross output, intermediate inputs, and GPO prices and unit costs is the latest step in the continuing efforts by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to make the industry accounts data more useful. Last November, BEA presented new GPO estimates for 1996, which represented a speedup in the availability of estimates for the most recent complete year, and BEA presented and discussed annual estimates of gross output and intermediate inputs by industry for the first time. Future improvement efforts will focus on the development of measures of gross output for the industries for which the double-deflation method is not used to prepare the GPO estimates and on integrating the GPO estimates with the benchmark input-output accounts and with other BEA industry estimates.
This article is presented in five parts. The first part discusses the relative performance of industries for 1995–97 in terms of real growth rates, contributions to real GDP growth, industry shares of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP), and the composition of current-dollar GPO. The second part describes the revisions to the GPO estimates, and the third part discusses gross output and intermediate inputs by industry. The fourth part describes GPO prices and unit costs, and the fifth part discusses the changes to the source data and estimation methods. The new and revised estimates for 1995–97 for detailed industries are presented in tables after the text.
The relative performance of particular industries or industry groups can be assessed by comparing real GPO growth rates, contributions to real GDP growth, the shares of GDP across industries, and the composition of current-dollar GPO. Comparisons of the growth rates of real gross product indicate an industry's performance relative to other industries. Contributions to real GDP growth indicate the extent that each industry affected the growth of GDP. Changes in the share of current-dollar GDP that is accounted for by an industry's gross product indicate whether that industry's claim on the economy's resources is increasing or decreasing. Changes in the composition of an industry's current-dollar GPO indicate whether the labor and capital shares for that industry are changing.
From 1992, the start of the current cyclical expansion, through 1997, the most recent year for which GDP estimates by industry are available, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent; private industries increased 3.6 percent, and government increased 0.2 percent (table 1). The real gross product of all private industry groups increased; the increases ranged from 7.9 percent in durable goods manufacturing to 1.9 percent in nondurable goods manufacturing. Manufacturing as a whole increased 5.2 percent. Excluding manufacturing, the largest increases were in trade—5.6 percent in retail trade and 5.5 percent in wholesale trade—and the smallest increase was in finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE), 2.3 percent.
In 1992–97, at the 66-industry level of detail, the changes in real GDP varied widely. Seventeen industries recorded average annual increases of 5 percent or more in real gross product. Three of these industries recorded especially large increases: Electronic and other electric equipment (21.5 percent) and industrial machinery and equipment (14.6 percent) in durable goods manufacturing and security and commodity brokers (19.5 percent) in FIRE./4/ Nine industries recorded decreases in real growth. The largest decreases were also in durable goods manufacturing: Instruments and related products, down 7.7 percent, and "other transportation equipment," down 4.9 percent. Real growth in instruments and related products decreased each year.
In 1995, real GDP slowed to a 2.3-percent increase from a 3.5-percent increase in 1994. The growth in private-industry real GPO slowed to a 2.3-percent increase from a 4.5-percent increase; all private industry groups except services contributed to the deceleration. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing declined 10.9 percent after increasing 16.4 percent. Services increased 3.9 percent after increasing 2.7 percent. Although manufacturing grew at a slower rate than in 1994, two of the fastest growing industry groups were durable goods manufacturing (8.3 percent) and nondurable goods manufacturing (4.4 percent).
By detailed industry, the fastest growing industries in 1995 were in manufacturing and services. In manufacturing, industrial machinery and equipment increased 23.8 percent; electronic and other electric equipment increased 22.6 percent; food and kindred products increased 18.1 percent, and petroleum and coal products increased 10.2 percent. In services, motion pictures grew 11.8 percent. Two industries decreased substantially: Farms in agriculture, forestry, and fishing, down 15.2 percent, and paper and allied products in manufacturing, down 14.8 percent.
In 1996, real GDP growth accelerated to 3.4 percent from 2.3 percent in 1995. The acceleration was mainly in agriculture, forestry, and fishing; construction; transportation and public utilities; wholesale trade; and retail trade. All industry groups except mining and nondurable goods manufacturing increased. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing grew the fastest (7.6 percent), followed by wholesale trade (6.8 percent); mining declined 4.2 percent, and nondurable goods manufacturing declined 3.2 percent. The growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing reflected large increases in the gross output and the gross product of farms. Transportation increased 6.3 percent after increasing 0.8 percent, and wholesale trade increased 6.8 percent after increasing 1.6 percent.
By detailed industry, the fastest growing industries in 1996 were in FIRE and in transportation and public utilities, and the slowest growing industries were in manufacturing. In FIRE, real GPO for security and commodity brokers increased 32.8 percent, and in transportation and public utilities, "pipelines, except natural gas" increased 29.0 percent. The two biggest declines in real GPO were in food and kindred products, down 16.0 percent, and in leather and leather products, down 12.9 percent.
In 1997, real GDP growth increased to 3.9 percent from 3.4 percent. The increase reflected increases in all industry groups. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing grew the fastest (11.7 percent), followed by wholesale trade (9.3 percent), durable goods (9.1 percent), retail trade (7.2 percent), and mining (6.7 percent). Electric, gas, and sanitary services (0.5 percent) and nondurable goods manufacturing (1.9 percent) grew the slowest.
By detailed industry, the fastest growing industries in 1997 were in durable goods manufacturing: Electronic and other electric equipment, up 22.5 percent, and industrial machinery and equipment, up 17.5 percent. These two industries were also among the fastest growing industries in 1995 and in 1996.
Contributions to real GDP growth.— An industry's contribution to the growth of real GDP depends both on the industry's rate of growth and on the industry's relative size. (See the box "Using Chained-Dollar Estimates for Computing Contributions to Economic Growth: A Cautionary Note.") In 1992–97, durable goods manufacturing was the largest contributor, accounting for 0.8 percentage point of the 3.1-percent growth in real GDP; services was the next largest, 0.6 percentage point (table 2)./5/ In 1995, durable goods manufacturing and services each contributed 0.8 percentage point to the growth in real GDP. In 1996, services contributed 0.7 percentage point, and durable goods, retail trade, and FIRE each contributed 0.6 percentage point. In 1997, durable goods manufacturing was again the largest contributor, 0.9 percentage point, and services was next, 0.7 percentage point.
Shares in current dollars are a better indicator of an industry's relative size in the economy in any one period than shares in real dollars, because industry shares in real dollars—whether using weights from the period being measured (chained dollars) or weights from a single period (constant dollars)—depend on the choice of the base year and therefore are not good indicators of relative size in years other than the base year.
The share of GDP that is accounted for by private services-producing industries rose relative to that by goods-producing industries and by government. The share of private goods-producing industries increased from 24.0 percent in 1992 to 24.2 percent in 1997, and the share of private services-producing industries increased from 61.3 percent to 63.9 percent (table 3)./6/ The share accounted for by government fell from 14.0 percent to 12.7 percent; the fall was concentrated in Federal general government (table 10)./7/
The increase in the share of private services-producing industries was mostly accounted for by "services" and by FIRE; the share of services rose 1.2 percentage points, and that of FIRE rose 1.0 percentage point. In FIRE, the shares of security and commodity brokers and of insurance carriers both increased 0.5 percentage point. The share of wholesale trade increased from 6.5 percent to 6.9 percent. Manufacturing's share of GDP increased from 17.0 percent in 1992 to 17.6 percent in 1995, primarily reflecting durable goods, and then fell back to 17.0 percent by 1997, primarily reflecting nondurable goods.
Current-dollar GPO is measured as the sum of costs incurred and incomes earned in production in each industry. It is equal to gross domestic income, whose components can be grouped into categories that approximate shares of labor and of capital. Differences over time and among industry groups in shares of labor and capital can be observed using these approximations. The labor share of production can be approximated using compensation of employees, which consists of wage and salary accruals, employer contributions for social insurance, and other labor income. The capital share of production (property-type income) can be approximated using all the remaining components of GPO except indirect business tax and nontax liability, which is treated as a separate cost component because it is part of the pre-tax return to capital that accrues to government rather than to business./8/ In levels, these cost components increased for all industry groups, so the changes in shares reflect differences in growth rates among the cost components.
For the total economy, the share of GDP accounted for by compensation of employees decreased slightly, from 58.4 percent in 1992 to 57.8 percent in 1997, while the share of property-type income increased from 32.8 percent to 35.2 percent (table 11). The share of indirect business tax and nontax liability decreased from 8.1 percent to 7.7 percent. In 1992–97, the labor and capital shares of GPO and the change in these shares varied among industry groups. For manufacturing, the labor share of GPO declined 4.4 percentage points despite increases in full-time equivalent employment and compensation per full-time equivalent employee./9/ Despite a long-term decline in labor's share of manufacturing GPO, labor's share increased 0.2 percentage point in 1997, the first increase since 1992. In 1992–97, the capital share of manufacturing GPO increased 5.0 percentage points. For durable goods manufacturing, the labor share dropped 7.0 percentage points, and the capital share increased by 7.3 percentage points.
The shifts in the labor and capital shares in mining, in agriculture, forestry, and fishing, and in wholesale trade were relatively large. In mining, the labor share decreased from 35.2 percent in 1992 to 29.9 percent in 1997, and the capital share rose from 53.2 percent to 61.1 percent. In agriculture, forestry, and fishing, the labor share increased from 27.3 percent to 32.0 percent, and the capital share decreased. In wholesale trade, the labor share decreased from 58.8 percent to 55.2 percent, and the capital share increased from 18.5 percent to 23.2 percent.
The revisions to current-dollar GPO and to real GPO growth rates by industry group for 1995 and 1996 are presented in table 4. The estimates reflect the revisions to the annual NIPA estimates and the incorporation of new and revised source data for gross output and prices. The revisions to the 1995 estimates were smaller than those to the 1996 estimates: GDP was revised up $4.2 billion for 1995 and $25.6 billion for 1996. The revisions to the 1996 current-dollar estimates reduced manufacturing's share of GDP by 0.4 percentage point; this reduction was offset by an increase in the share accounted for by the statistical discrepancy./10/ The real GDP growth rate was revised up 0.3 percentage point for 1995 and up 0.6 percentage point for 1996. The revisions to real GPO growth rates for some industry groups were substantial, but the effects of these revisions on industry contributions to real GDP growth were generally small.
The revisions to current-dollar GPO largely reflect the annual NIPA revisions to the components of gross domestic income and to the industry distributions of these components. Several of the income components with larger revisions mostly offset one another. The revisions to gross domestic income for 1995 include upward revisions to corporate profits before tax and corporate capital consumption allowances and downward revisions to supplements and net interest. The revisions to gross domestic income for 1996 include downward revisions of $24.6 billion to supplements and of $16.8 billion to net interest and smaller upward revisions to most of the other components.
For 1995, by industry group, the largest upward revisions were to wholesale trade, $7.0 billion, and services, $5.1 billion. The upward revision to wholesale trade mainly reflected an upward revision to indirect business tax and nontax liability, and the upward revision to services mainly reflected revisions to corporate capital consumption allowances. The largest downward revisions were to manufacturing, $4.1 billion, and to electric, gas, and sanitary services, $5.0 billion. The downward revision to manufacturing reflected a $5.2 billion revision to durable goods, mainly to net interest and supplements; the revision to net interest was concentrated in electronic and other electric equipment and in motor vehicles and equipment, and the revision to supplements was concentrated in motor vehicles and equipment. The downward revision to electric, gas, and sanitary services reflected revisions to noncorporate and corporate capital consumption allowances.
For 1996, the largest upward revisions were to communications, $7.2 billion, and to construction, $5.8 billion. The revision to communications reflected upward revisions to net interest and to indirect business tax and nontax liability. The revision to construction reflected upward revisions to corporate profits before tax and to corporate capital consumption allowances.
The largest downward revision for 1996 was to manufacturing, down $23.0 billion, reflecting large downward revisions to supplements and to corporate profits before tax and smaller downward revisions to noncorporate income and to business transfer payments. These revisions were partly offset by small upward revisions to noncorporate and corporate capital consumption allowances. Durable goods manufacturing was revised down $11.7 billion, reflecting the large downward revision to supplements and smaller downward revisions to net interest, noncorporate income, and corporate profits before tax; these revisions were partly offset by upward revisions to corporate and noncorporate capital consumption allowances. Nondurable goods manufacturing was revised down $11.3 billion, mainly reflecting downward revisions to corporate profits before tax, noncorporate income, and business transfer payments.
In durable goods manufacturing, fabricated metal products were revised down $5.1 billion, reflecting a downward revision to corporate profits before tax, and instruments and related products were revised up $3.2 billion, reflecting an upward revision to corporate profits before tax. In nondurable goods manufacturing, food and kindred products were revised down $6.6 billion and chemicals and allied products were revised down $2.0 billion; both revisions reflected large downward revisions to corporate profits before tax.
The revisions to real GPO growth rates for 1995 and 1996 primarily reflected the revisions to current-dollar GPO, and they also reflected the incorporation of new and revised source data for gross output and prices. By industry, the revisions to real GPO growth rates in both years were generally offsetting. However, the growth rate for agriculture, forestry, and fishing GPO was revised down 4.4 percentage points for 1995 and up 7.3 percentage points for 1996; and the growth rate for transportation and public utilities GPO was revised up 3.3 percentage points for 1996. For agriculture, forestry, and fishing, the 1995 revision reflected downward revisions to both farms and agricultural services, forestry, and fishing, and the 1996 revision reflected an upward revision to farms. For transportation and public utilities, the 1996 upward revision reflected upward revisions of 4.1 percentage points to transportation and of 4.2 percentage points to communications. The revision to transportation reflected an upward revision to trucking and warehousing, transportation by air, and "pipelines, except natural gas," and the revision to communications reflected an upward revision to telephone and telegraph.
This section presents new estimates of gross output and intermediate inputs by industry for 1997 and revised estimates for 1995–96. First, it presents current-dollar estimates of gross output and intermediate inputs and their relationship to current-dollar GPO. Second, it presents chain-type quantity indexes for gross output and intermediate inputs and discusses how these indexes are related to the GPO quantity indexes.
The estimates of gross output and intermediate inputs by industry, which are shown in tables 14–16, are prepared for those industries for which the double-deflation method is used to compute real GPO./11/ Gross output by industry measures an industry's total output (sales, receipts, and other operating income). Intermediate inputs by industry measures an industry's total use of secondary factors of production (the energy, raw materials, semifinished goods, and services that are purchased from other industries or imported).
Current-dollar GPO by industry is the difference between an industry's current-dollar gross output and its current-dollar intermediate inputs. It represents the return to an industry's primary factors of production (labor and capital), as measured by its compensation of employees, indirect business tax and nontax liability, and property-type income. Because GPO excludes intermediate inputs, it avoids double-counting in measuring industry output.
Real growth in an industry's gross output and intermediate inputs is measured using a chain-type quantity index. Quantity indexes for gross output and intermediate inputs are computed from detailed data on sales, purchases, and prices using a Fisher chain-type quantity-index-number formula. (Percent changes in the indexes and in the chain-type quantity index for GPO are presented by industry group in table 5.) Because industry gross output is produced using both primary and secondary factors of production, the percent change in an industry's GPO quantity index depends positively on the percent change in its gross output quantity index and negatively on the percent change in its intermediate inputs quantity index. The weights of these gross output and intermediate inputs growth rates are determined by the relative levels of an industry's current-dollar gross output and intermediate inputs./12/ For example, the 1992–97 average annual growth rate for telephone and telegraph GPO, 4.4 percent, lags the relatively strong growth in this industry's gross output quantity index, 8.0 percent, because its intermediate inputs quantity index increased 14.5 percent, reflecting falling prices for intermediate inputs. Similarly, the average annual decline of 7.7 percent for instruments and related products GPO results from a 3.0-percent increase in this industry's gross output quantity index that was more than offset by a 9.8-percent increase in its intermediate inputs quantity index, partly reflecting falling prices for semiconductor inputs.
This section presents new estimates of GPO prices and unit costs by industry for 1997 and revised estimates for 1995–96. First, it presents GPO price indexes, including a discussion of contributions to GPO price change and a discussion of the relationship among GPO, gross output, and intermediate inputs price indexes. Second, it defines and presents estimates of unit costs by industry.
The GPO price index for an industry represents the implicit price of its primary factors of production (labor and capital). For most industries and industry groups, the GPO price index is computed using a Fisher chain-type price-index-number formula. For some industries, the index is an implicit price deflator because of data limitations. The GPO price index estimates are presented in table 12, and the percent changes by industry group, in table 6.
For those industries for which the GPO price index is computed using a Fisher chain-type price-index-number formula, an industry's price index can be used in combination with its quantity index to separate changes in current-dollar GPO into price changes and quantity changes. For example, the 1992–97 average annual growth of 5.3 percent in current-dollar manufacturing GPO can be viewed as the product of a 0.1-percent growth in the manufacturing GPO price index (table 6) and a 5.2-percent growth in the manufacturing GPO quantity index (table 5)—that is, 1.053 = 1.001 × 1.052.
The chain-type price index for gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent in 1992–97; private industries increased 2.1 percent, and government increased 3.1 percent (table 6). Among the private industry groups, the GPO price index for durable goods manufacturing declined 1.3 percent. The increases in the GPO price indexes for all industry groups except manufacturing and retail trade ranged from 0.3 percent for electric, gas, and sanitary services to 4.1 percent for FIRE.
The average annual 1992–97 GPO price change for private services-producing industries (2.5 percent) exceeded the GDP price change, and the GPO price change for private goods-producing industries (0.9 percent) was less than the GDP price change. The slower growth in the index for private goods-producing industries than in the index for private services-producing industries continues a trend that began in 1982. Exceptions to this trend were in 1989 and 1996.
In 1997, the GPO price index for private industries increased 1.7 percent, slightly less than the 1.9-percent increase in the GDP price index. The price index for manufacturing declined, as a decrease in durable goods prices was partly offset by an increase in nondurable goods prices. The price indexes for three other industry groups that are involved in the distribution of goods to customers increased less than the GDP price index or decreased: Electric, gas, and sanitary services (1.6 percent), wholesale trade (-1.0 percent), and retail trade (-1.1 percent). FIRE (5.0 percent) and services (3.5 percent) were among the industry groups for which the GPO price index increased more than the GDP price index./13/
Contributions to change.—GPO prices can be used to assess an industry's contribution to the change in GDP prices. This contribution depends on the industry's size relative to GDP and on the growth rate of its GPO price index./14/ In 1992–97, the largest contributors to the change in the GDP price index were FIRE (0.8 percentage point) and services (0.7 percentage point), both of which were large and rapidly growing industry groups (table 7). Government contributed 0.4 percentage point./15/ Manufacturing prices were unchanged, so their contribution to the GDP price change was 0.0 percentage point. Durable goods manufacturing contributed -0.1 percentage point; since 1995, the contribution of durable goods manufacturing to GDP price change has been negative, partly reflecting the rapid decline in prices for computers, digital telephone switching equipment, and semiconductors.
Gross output prices and intermediate inputs prices.—Price indexes for gross output and intermediate inputs, which are presented in tables 15 and 16, are computed from detailed data on sales, purchases, and prices using a Fisher chain-type price-index-number formula. Like the relationship among percent changes in the chain-type quantity indexes for GPO, gross output, and intermediate inputs, the percent change in an industry's GPO price index depends positively on the percent change in its gross output price index and negatively on the percent change in its intermediate inputs price index. The weights of these gross output and intermediate inputs growth rates are determined by the relative levels of an industry's current-dollar gross output and intermediate inputs./16/ For example, the 1992–97 average annual decline of 4.0 percent in the GPO price index for "pipelines, except natural gas" is attributable to a 1.4-percent decline in this industry's gross output price index and a 2.5-percent increase in its intermediate inputs price index. Similarly, the average annual growth of 9.0 percent in the GPO price index for instruments and related products is attributable to a 0.9-percent increase in this industry's gross output price index and a 3.3-percent decline in its intermediate inputs price index, partly reflecting falling prices for semiconductor inputs.
The GPO chain-type price index for an industry represents the implicit price of its primary factors of production; therefore, an industry's GPO price index can be used in combination with its current-dollar GPO components to assess each component's contribution to total industry labor and capital costs./17/
The GPO measures of unit costs are computed by dividing current-dollar GPO and its components by real (chained-dollar) GPO./18/ The resulting quotients are the GPO chain-type price index and the part of the price index that is associated with each component. GPO unit-cost measures by private industry group are presented in table 8./19/ When the percent change in the unit cost for a component is greater than the percent change in the GPO price index, the relative importance of that component in the industry cost structure has increased. Percent changes in unit costs by private industry group are presented in table 9.
The cost per unit of GPO for private industries increased 2.1 percent in 1992–97. Compensation of employees per unit of GPO (unit labor costs) increased 1.7 percent. Unit costs for indirect business tax and nontax liability increased 0.4 percent, and unit costs for property-type income increased 3.0 percent. The larger increase in the unit costs for property-type income indicates that capital costs became a larger part of GPO unit costs during the period—that is, the return to capital per unit of gross product increased.
By industry, unit labor costs declined in four private industry groups: Mining, durable goods manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade. Unit labor costs increased in all the other private industry groups. In agriculture, forestry, and fishing, in FIRE, and in services, the increases in unit labor costs were larger than the increases in total unit costs.
The largest declines in unit labor costs were in industry groups engaged in the production and distribution of goods. In manufacturing, unit labor costs declined at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent, compared with a 0.1-percent increase in total unit costs. Unit labor costs in durable goods manufacturing declined 3.2 percent, while total unit costs declined 1.3 percent. In transportation and public utilities, the percent changes in unit labor costs were smaller than the percent changes in total unit costs; in wholesale trade, unit labor costs declined, while total unit costs increased; and in retail trade, unit labor costs declined, while total unit costs were unchanged.
In 1997, unit labor costs increased 2.1 percent in all private industries, while total unit costs increased 1.7 percent. Unit labor costs increased in all private industry groups except agriculture, forestry, and fishing; durable goods manufacturing; wholesale trade; and retail trade. Unit labor costs in manufacturing declined 0.1 percent: Durable goods manufacturing fell 2.3 percent, marking the fifth consecutive year that unit labor costs fell in this industry group, but nondurable goods manufacturing increased. The largest increases in unit labor costs were in construction, FIRE, and services. In construction, unit labor costs rose faster than total unit costs for the first time since 1992, while unit costs for property-type income decreased (4.2 percent) for the first time since 1992.
This section of the article describes changes in source data and estimating methods that affect the GPO estimates./20/
The GPO estimates incorporate several changes in methodology from the annual revision of the NIPA's released in July 1998. These changes include an improved adjustment to remove capital gains from the trading-account activity of security brokers and dealers, and new gross output price measures for several services components of personal consumption expenditures (PCE)./21/ The capital gains adjustment affected the estimates of current-dollar GPO and gross output of security and commodity brokers. The new PCE price measures incorporated the new geometric-mean-type consumer price indexes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These new PCE deflators affected the estimates of gross output and prices. For example, the PCE price index for "auto rental, leasing, and other," which now incorporates the BLS prices at a more detailed level, was used to derive real gross output estimates for the auto repair, services, and parking industry.
The GPO estimates of real gross output and real intermediate inputs incorporate BEA's price indexes for semiconductors and extend them to 1997 using producer price indexes from BLS./22/ For digital telephone-switching equipment, the BEA price index was extended to 1997 using the price index developed for the NIPA's. The new price index that was developed for PCE cellular telephone services was used to separately deflate cellular telephone services in the telephone and telegraph industry.
Box: Gross Product Originating: Definition and Relationship to Gross Domestic Product
Footnotes:
1. For the previously published estimates of gross product by industry for 1995–96, see Sherlene K.S. Lum and Robert E. Yuskavage, "Gross Product by Industry, 1947–96," SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 77 (November 1997): 20–34.
2. For more information, see Eugene P. Seskin, "Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts," SURVEY 78 (August 1998): 7–35.
3. See Robert E. Yuskavage, "Gross Product by Industry Price Measures, 1977–96," SURVEY 78 (March 1998): 17–25.
4. Annual and average annual growth rates for detailed industries are computed from the chain-type indexes that are shown in table 12. Percent changes in quantity indexes and chained dollars at all levels are the same and chained dollars are calculated from the quantity indexes. Real GPO estimates in chained (1992) dollars for detailed industries and industry groups are shown in table 13. For information about the computation of the real GPO estimates, see the box "Computation of the Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Double-Deflated Industries" in Robert E. Yuskavage, "Improved Estimates of Gross Product by Industry, 1959–94," SURVEY 76 (August 1996): 142.
5. For a description of the calculation of these contributions, see "Note on Computing Alternative Chained Dollar Indexes and Contributions to Growth" in J. Steven Landefeld and Robert P. Parker, "BEA's Chain Indexes, Time Series, and Measures of Long-Term Economic Growth," SURVEY 77 (May 1997): 63.
6. Private-goods producing industries consist of agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining; construction; and manufacturing. Private-services producing industries consist of transportation and public utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; finance, insurance, and real estate; and services.
7. In addition, the statistical discrepancy as a share of current-dollar GDP fell from 0.7 percent to -0.7 percent.
8. Property-type income is the sum of corporate profits, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, net interest, capital consumption allowances, business transfer payments, and the current surplus of government enterprises less subsidies. Proprietors' income is included in property-type income as a capital share of production; however, an unknown portion of proprietors' income represents a labor share of production.
9. For some analytical purposes, the labor and capital shares of gross output are more appropriate than the labor and capital shares of GPO. For most industries, particularly for manufacturing, the labor and capital shares of GPO are larger than the labor and capital shares of gross output, because gross output also includes intermediate inputs. For example, labor's share of manufacturing gross output was 22.6 percent in 1997, whereas labor's share of manufacturing GPO was 63.6 percent.
10. The share increased because the value of the statistical discrepancy was revised from -$59.9 billion to -$32.2 billion.
11. For other industries, the source data are not adequate for preparing gross output estimates. For more information on the double-deflation method, see Yuskavage, "Improved Estimates," 142–145.
12. For the Fisher chain-type quantity index, these weights change each period.
13. The price indexes for FIRE and services are implicit price deflators because of data limitations.
14. For a description of the calculation of these contributions, see the reference in footnote 5. The procedure described in the reference was modified to replace the chain-type quantity index with the chain-type price index.
15. The GPO price index for government is an implicit price deflator computed as current-dollar GPO divided by real (chained-dollar) GPO. For general government, which includes most of government, current-dollar GPO consists of compensation of employees and the consumption of fixed capital, which measures the services of general government fixed assets. Real consumption of fixed capital is estimated by direct deflation using price indexes from the NIPA's. Real compensation of employees is estimated by extrapolating base-year current-dollar values by an indicator of labor input.
16. For the Fisher chain-type price index, these weights change each period.
17. See the section "Composition of GPO."
18. Current-dollar cost per unit of real GPO equals the GPO price index divided by 100.
19. These unit cost measures differ from the unit labor cost and unit nonlabor cost series published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because of differences in the definition of output. See Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 2490 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, April 1997).
20. For a detailed description of the GPO methodology, see Yuskavage, "Improved Estimates," 143–149.
21. See Seskin, "Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts," 20 and 31.
22. Semiconductor prices also affect exports and imports in the NIPA's.