|
Strategic
Plan for the
Climate Change
Science Program
Final Report, July 2003
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Figure 5-5
from Annex C
(Graphics and Photography Source Information)
Figure 5-5: Factors affecting the predictability of
precipitation in summer (June, July, and August). The influence on the
predictability of precipitation is shown for (a) sea surface temperature
(SST) alone and (b) both SST and land surface moisture state. The values
of the predictability index were determined through an analysis of an
ensemble of multi-decade atmospheric general circulation model
simulations. The plotted precipitation predictability index varies from 0
to 1. Areas with values close to 1 indicate that precipitation is strongly
determined by SST (and/or soil moisture), and is thus "predictable" on
seasonal time scales if the SSTs (and soil moisture) themselves are
predictable; whereas values close to 0 indicate that a foreknowledge of
these fields may not lead to useful seasonal precipitation predictions. In
the latter areas (values close to 0), nonlinear turbulent atmospheric
processes would appear to dominate over SST (or soil moisture) control.
Source: R.D. Koster, M. Suarez, and M. Heiser, NASA.
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