PMEL
Programs and Plans
Accomplishments in FY 99 and Plans for FY 00
Three figures illustrating (a) the MOST model simulation of the 1996 Andreanov
Is. tsunami, (b) the surface buoy for the real-time reporting DART tsunami
observation system, (c) the maximum wave heights of a North Pacific tsunami
generated by a hypothetical Alaska/Aleutian earthquake.
Tsunami Program
Accomplishments in FY 99
The PMEL Tsunami Program seeks to mitigate tsunami hazards in Hawaii,
California, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska through research and
development aimed at improving operational products. The Program
conducts instrumental, observational, and modeling R&D through three
tightly coupled activities: the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of
Tsunamis (DART) Project; the Center for Tsunami Inundation Mapping
Efforts (TIME); the Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis
(SIFT) Project. Research efforts focus on improved understanding of
tsunami generation, propagation and inundation dynamics; development
efforts focus on providing the nation with effective tools for tsunami
hazard mitigation, including real-time reporting measurement systems,
improved inundation maps for at-risk communities, and an integrated
event- and site-specific forecasting capability.
NOAA bears primary national responsibility for tsunami warning and
hazard mitigation and is the lead agency for implementation of the
U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The PMEL
Tsunami Program continues to coordinate the activities of the three
Federal agencies and five States that are members of the NTHMP.
This includes hosting and
participating in NTHMP Steering Group meetings and the development of
informational Web sites and electronic bulletin boards. In FY 99,
DART and TIME support was augmented by the NTHMP.
The DART Project successfully deployed three systems in the North
Pacific, establishing two stations just south of the Alaskan-Aleutian
Seismic Zone (AASZ), a known region of tsunamigenic potential. A
third DART station was maintained off California as an engineering
test site. All systems survived the hostile North Pacific winter
season, and improvements to the communications system successfully
increased the data return rate to acceptable levels. The real-time
DART data stream is now accessed by NOAA's Pacific Tsunami Warning
Center (PTWC) and the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
(WCATWC).
The TIME Center continued to provide valuable assistance to the NTHMP States in the
development of inundation maps for at-risk communities. In Oregon,
during FY 99, inundation maps were produced for the communities of Warrenton
and Astoria, and a risk analysis has identified and prioritized an
additional seven communities to be mapped. In Washington, two maps
were completed during FY 99 that cover all at-risk communities on the southwest
coast in Gray's Harbor and Pacific counties. In California, TIME
developed merged bathymetric/topographic grids essential to the
numerical modeling of the San Francisco, Santa Barbara, Los
Angeles/Long Beach and San Diego areas; modeling of these coastal
regions is now underway. In Alaska, inundation modeling was initiated
for three study areas -- the City of Kodiak, the U.S. Coast Guard Base
region, and Women's Bay -- using merged bathy/topo grids developed by
TIME; fifteen additional high-priority communities have been
identified for future mapping. Hawaii inundation modeling activities
were begun in FY 99 through a competitive selection process that
awarded two tsunami modeling contracts -- one to address the issue of
distant tsunami generation, the other to investigate locally generated
events.
The SIFT Project published three reports, the first on tsunami
prediction in coastal regions and a forecast method to predict the
heights of later waves, the second on an analytic theory for tsunami
wave scattering in the open ocean, the third on forecasting offshore
Hawaii tsunamis and the creation of a database of model runs
simulating multiple scenarios of tsunami generation in the AASZ and
propagation into deep water off Hawaii
The
generation/propagation database was also transferred to the Pacific
Disaster Center as the first step in developing a real-time,
site-specific, Hawaii inundation forecasting capability to guide
decision-making during an actual event.
Tsunami Program
Plans for FY 00
- Continue to coordinate the three agencies and five states
participating in the NTHMP.
- Continue the development of real-time DART systems. Maintain
and expand the current network to three sites in the Gulf of Alaska
and one off the U.S. West Coast.
- Continue to assist Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington and
Alaska in the production of tsunami inundation maps for threatened
coastal communities.
- Develop an inundation forecasting database for Hilo and
Kahului, Hawaii.
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