PMEL Programs and Plans
Accomplishments in FY 98 and Plans for FY 99

Tsunami Program

Three figures illustrating (a) the MOST model simulation of the 1996 Andreanov Is. tsunami, (b) the surface buoy for the real-time reporting DART tsunami observation system, and (c) the maximum wave heights of a North Pacific tsunami generated by a hypothetical Alaska/Aleutian earthquake.

Tsunami Program

Accomplishments in FY 98

As the nation's lead organization for the implementation of the NTHMP, the PMEL Tsunami Program coordinated the three Federal agencies and five states participating in the NTHMP. This included participation in steering group meetings and the development of informational Web sites and electronic bulletin boards. Development continued on Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys to detect tsunamis in the open ocean and report their wave heights in real-time. Prototype DART buoys were deployed in the northern Gulf of Alaska and at Station P (50N, 145W), for further testing of communication systems and survivability during the rugged winter environment of the North Pacific.

Development continued on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model, with the goal of providing the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) with the capability to make real-time forecast of tsunami wave heights during Pacific tsunamis. During such events , the PDC will make the forecasts available as guidance to warning centers and emergency managers. Sensitivity analyses of MOST simulations were begun to determine the tsunami source variables that need to estimated immediately after a tsunamigenic earthquake in order to obtain an accurate forecast of tsunami wave heights. The initial focus of this work was the generation and propagation of tsunami from the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone (AASZ) to the vicinity of Hawaii. The study used the 1996 Andreanov I. tsunami as a prototype event. The computer code was also parallelized for efficient use at the Maui High Performance Computer Center (MHPCC). The results of MOST simulations for the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami were used to provide guidance to the International Tsunami Survey Team during the post-tsunami survey and reported at the Fall AGU Meeting.

The recently established Center for Tsunami Inundation Mapping Efforts (TIME), associated with PMEL, provided valuable assistance to inundation modeling efforts in Oregon, resulting in a tsunami hazard map of the Seaside-Gearhart Area. Efforts also began to develop similar maps for other sites in Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington and Alaska.

The operational network of bottom pressure recorders continued to be maintained in the northern Gulf of Alaska, in a region just south of the Shumagin Seismic Gap. During FY 1998, the data from the network and coastal tide gages for the 1996 Andreanov Is. and 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunamis were made available to the international tsunami community via the PMEL Web site.

Tsunami Program

Plans for FY 99

• Coordinate the three agencies and five states participating in the NTHMP.
• Maintain the Tsunami Program network of observational stations.
• Continue the development of real-time DART systems and deploy prototypes at sites in the Gulf of Alaska and off the U.S. West Coast.
• Continue to assist Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington and Alaska in the production of tsunami inundation maps for threatened coastal communities.
• Complete the development of a forecast method to predict the heights of later waves in Pacific tsunamis.
• Publish MOST numerical model sensitivity study for Alaska-source tsunamis off Hawaii.
• Expand the MOST model capability to inundation forecasting and test at selected sites in Hawaii.