Major Activity: Vents

Outcome: Descriptions, inventories, and baseline characterizations of ecosystems, including integrated ocean mapping products, are available.

Indicator of measure completion: Refereed journal publication.

Milestone: Characterize the chemical, geological, and biological/microbiological conditions in the most CO2-rich ecosystem ever discovered in the ocean to assess it's interannual chemical and biological stability and diversity.

Quarter Due: 3

Purpose: This milestone involved an on-going study of an unusual CO2-rich ecosystem, the Champagne vent site near the summit of the NW Eifuku volcano in the Mariana Arc. This vent field is discharging droplets of liquid CO2 and also CO2-rich hydrothermal fluid. Oceanic sequestration of CO2 generated by burning of fossil fuels is currently being considered as a method of reducing atmospheric build-up of greenhouse gases. For this reason, the Champagne site represents a valuable natural laboratory for studying the effects of high CO2 concentrations on marine ecosystems.

Efforts and Results: The Champagne site was first discovered in 2004, and was re-visited in the Fall of 2005 and again in the Spring of 2006. In each case the site was studied and samples were collected using a deep sea ROV (remotely-operated-vehicle). One of the main findings was that the site is still actively venting liquid CO2, but that it is less active than when first discovered in 2004. A paper describing these findings is currently in press. We expect that the studies at this site will continue in the future.

Cause Factors: N/A

Revised Completion Date: N/A

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOAA Matrix Program: Ecosystem Observations

Major Activity: Fisheries-Oceanography Coordinated Investigations (FOCI)

Performance Measure: Number of ecosystem assessments and forecasts completed.

Outcome: Provide integrated routine indicators to show "status of the ecosystem."

Indicator of measure completion: Availability of datasets on Live Access Server for public access.

Milestone: Using the ROMS northeast Pacific hydrodynamic model with 10km resolution, complete 50 years of hindcasts (1955-2005). Output from the model will be served on PMEL's Live Access Server.

Quarter Due: 3

Purpose: Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), we completed 50 years of ocean hindcasts at the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center (ARSC). The regional model covers the northeast Pacific, including the Bering Sea. Model variables include: temperature, salinity, current velocity, and ice cover on a 10km grid at 42 depths. The model is forced by atmospheric and world ocean hindcasts from Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and the earliest years by NCEP. These runs will be used to explore interdecadal and interannual variability in the North Pacific, with an ultimate goal to improve predictive capabilities for ecosystems and species.

Efforts and Results: The 50 years of hindcasts were completed and selected parts of the extensive model data are being served on the Live Access Server. The daily averaged 3-dimensional fields are immense, totaling 2.2 terabytes of data. This data is available on the ARSC supercomputer system. We have synthesized the data into weekly averages (320 gigabytes) and transferred these data files to PMEL, where selected variables are served on the Live Access Server. The selected variables provide the greatest insight into ice cover and flow on the Bering Sea shelf, which is the focus of ongoing investigations. Additional variables can be served as needed on the Live Access Server.

Cause Factors: N/A

Revised Completion Date: N/A

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mission Goal: Understanding Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society's Ability to Plan and Respond

NOAA Matrix Program: Climate Observations and Analysis

Major Activity: Climate Observations

Milestone: Enhance 5 TAO/PIRATA moorings for momentum, heat and fresh water measurements in support of the OceanSITES program.

Quarter Due: 4

Purpose: These enhancements to select TAO and PIRATA moorings will provide high-temporal resolution, high-accuracy in-situ data necessary for the estimation of air-sea momentum, heat and fresh water fluxes. These estimates will further the understanding of processes which affect climate variability, identify areas of importance to tropical budgets, and assess the quality of Numerical Weather Prediction products. The project also supports the goals of the OceanSITES program to provide sustained climate measurements at select sites throughout the worlds oceans.

Efforts and Results: The milestone has been exceeded. Four TAO sites (0º 165ºE, 0º 170ºW, 0º 140ºW and 0º 110ºW, and two PIRATA (0º 23ºW, 10ºS 10ºW) have been enhanced to provide these data.

Cause Factors: N/A

Revised Completion Date: N/A

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOAA Matrix Program: Climate Forcing

Major Activity: Carbon Cycle

Performance Measure: Percent completion of the In-situ Global Ocean Observing System (non-Arctic)

Outcome: Comprehensive documentation of the state of the climate system through a network of integrated climate observing systems (i.e. GEOSS) to: a) detect and attribute causes for observed climate variability and change, b) improve analysis of climate variability and change, c)improve climate forecast still, d) better constrain estimates of climate model uncertainties, and e) increase the credibility of climate change projections.

Indicator of measure completion: Refereed journal publication.

Milestone: Determine interannual and decadal air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Equatorial Pacific.

Quarter Due: 4

Purpose: This milestone involves an on-going study of the role of the equatorial Pacific as a source of Carbon Dioxide to the atmosphere. This research is particularly focused on the causes of the decadal changes in the air-sea flux of CO2 between 95°W and 165°E.

Efforts and Results: As part of our continuing effort to understand the interannual and decadal changes in the air-sea carbon fluxes of the equatorial Pacific, we developed seasonal and interannual relationships between the fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) and sea surface temperature (SST) from shipboard data that were applied to high-resolution temperature fields deduced from satellite data to obtain high-resolution large-scale estimates of the regional fluxes. The data were gathered on board research ships from November 1981 through June 2004 including repeat transects of the equatorial Pacific between 95°W and 165°E. The distribution of fCO2sw during five El Niño periods (1982–1983, 1986–1987, 1991–1994, 1997–1998 and 2002–2003) and four La Niña periods (1984–1985, 1988–1989, 1995–1996 and 1998–2000) were documented. Observations made during the warm boreal winter-spring season (January through June) and during the cooler boreal summer-fall season (July through December) of each year enabled us to examine the interannual and seasonal variability of the fCO2sw-SST relationships. The results indicate a strong interannual (ENSO) and weaker seasonal variability. On average, the surface water fCO2 in the equatorial region has been increasing at a rate similar to the atmospheric CO2 increase due most likely to air-sea transfer of atmospheric CO2.  In addition, there appears to be a slight increase (~27%) in the out-gassing flux of CO2 after the 1997–1998 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime shift. Most of this flux increase is due to an increase in wind speeds after the spring of 1998, although increases in fCO2sw after 1998 are also important. These increases are coincident with the recent rebound of the shallow water meridional overturning circulation in the tropical and subtropical Pacific after the regime shift.
Reference: Feely, R.A., T. Takahashi, R. Wanninkhof, M.J. McPhaden, C.E. Cosca, S.C. Sutherland, and M.-E. Carr (2006): Decadal variability of the air-sea CO2 fluxes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 111, C08S90, doi: 10.1029/2005JC003129.

Cause Factors: N/A

Revised Completion Date: N/A

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOAA Matrix Program: Climate Forcing

Major Activity: Atmospheric Chemistry

Performance Measure: Reduce the uncertainty in model simulations of the influence of aerosols on climate.

Outcome: New information on the climate roles of the radiatively important fine-particle aerosols, with an emphasis on aerosol-cloud interaction (the most uncertain of the climate forcing agents), and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases to provide decision support associated with options for potential near-term changes in radiative forcing of climate change.

Indicator of measure completion: Cruise completion

Milestone: Measure the chemical, physical, and optical properties of aerosols in the marine boundary layer aboard a ship over the Gulf of Mexico during the GoMACCS campaign in August/September 2006.

Quarter Due: 4

Purpose: This milestone involves an on-going study to characterize the chemical composition, physical size, and light scattering and absorbing properties of atmospheric aerosol particles in different regions of the world.  These aerosol particles affect Earth’s radiative balance and thus must be included in climate models.  The data provide: 1) regional aerosol parameters that can be directly used in radiative transfer models, 2) direct comparisons to assess the accuracy of chemical transport and radiative transfer models, 3) ground truth for satellite retrievals, and 4) a better understanding of the sources and atmospheric processes responsible for the formation, growth and evolution of aerosols. 

Efforts and Results: Aerosol chemical, physical and optical measurements were made aboard the NOAA RV Ronald H. Brown over the Gulf of Mexico from July 27 through September 11, 2006 as part of the Texas Air Quality Study and the Gulf of Mexico Atmospheric Composition and Climate Study.  During the cruise the scientists aboard Brown:

• Characterized emissions from:

• the industrial/petrochemical facilities in the Houston area during eight transits of the Houston Ship Channel and many days sampling in the vicinity of Barbour’s Cut.
• anthropogenic and biogenic sources in the Beaumont/Port Arthur (Sabine River) area, Freeport and Matagorda Bay.
• ships in Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.
• oil and gas production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

• Characterized the regional atmospheric aerosol composition which included Saharan dust plumes, marine and biogenic aerosols, local anthropogenic aerosols, and secondary aerosols formed in the atmosphere.
• Documented chemical and meteorological processes that control aerosol growth and transformation during two land-bay-sea breeze recirculation events in Galveston Bay.
• Positioned the ship under satellite overpasses to provide ground-truth for NASA satellite sensors (MODIS, MISR, CALIPSO). 

Cause Factors: N/A

Revised Completion Date: N/A

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mission Goal: Serve Society's Need for Weather and Water Information

NOAA Matrix Program: Tsunami

Major Activity: Tsunami Research

Performance Measure: Increase the number of completed Priority Tsunami Forecast Models from 4 in 2004 to 74 by 2009.

Outcome: Better, quicker, and more trusted weather and water information to support improved decisions.

Indicator of measure completion: Number of models made available for use on the web-based forecast site in FY2006.

Milestone: Complete and integrate 8 Tsunami Forecast Models into the Prototype Tsunami Forecast System developed for NOAA/NWS Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs).

Quarter Due: 4

Purpose: The Tsunami Forecast System under development at PMEL will provide real-time model estimates of tsunami amplitudes, inundation and current velocities for the communities at risk. Accurate estimates require development of optimized high-resolution models that will be run during tsunami events. Forecast Models for 8 U.S. coastal communities were scheduled for development during FY06. The models would be built into the Forecast System to link with the real-time data stream at the Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs). The prototype Web interface developed at PMEL will allow TWCs to use the Forecast Model on an interim basis until before the operational system is complete in FY08.

Efforts and Results: During FY06, eight Forecast Models were completed, tested and integrated into the prototype Web interface to provide intermin access to Tsunami Forecast Tools by the TWCs. A total of 17 high resolution models are now currently available (including 9 previously developed). The development of the models involved creating Digital Elevation Models for corresponding communities (in collaboration with NGDC), testing models with available historical tsunami data, and optimizing models for running in real-time without loss of accuracy. Full reports on the models' development and testing are provided. Several research papers are in preparation as a result of these model studies.

Cause Factors: N/A

Revised Completion Date: N/A