Simulation of the Effects of Climate Change on Ground-Water Resources in the Lansing Tri-County Region

The potential impacts of climate change projections on streamflow and ground-water levels in the Lansing, Michigan area were assessed on the basis of a sequence of computer simulations developed by NOAAs Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Meterology estimates were generated for 1961-1990 as a reference condition and the 20 years centered on 2030 as a changed climate condition using the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre general circulation models. Ground-water recharge estimates were generated by using streamflow estimates from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic simulation system and variables derived from the general circulation models. The ground-water recharge estimates were used as input for the U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW ground-water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri-County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan to determine the impacts of changes in ground-water recharge on ground-water levels. Within the Lansing area, ground-water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley predictions.