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Outline
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OUTLINE
FOR THE IPCC WORKING GROUP I CONTRIBUTION TO THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS
Summary for Policymakers
Technical Summary
1. Historical Overview of Climate
Change Science
• Introduction
• Progress in Observations
• Progress in Understanding of Radiative Forcing, Processes, and
Coupling
• Progress in Climate Modelling
• Advances in Understanding Uncertainties
- Appendix: Glossary of Terms
2. Changes in Atmospheric Constituents
and in Radiative Forcing
• Introduction
• Definition and Utility of Radiative Forcing
• Recent Changes in Greenhouse Gases
• Aerosols -- Direct and Indirect Radiative Forcing
• Radiative Forcing due to Land Use Changes
• Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cirrus
• Variability in Solar and Volcanic Radiative Forcing
• Synthesis of Radiative Forcing Factors
• GWPs and Other Metrics for Comparing Different Emissions
- Appendix: Techniques, Error
Estimation, and Measurement Systems
3. Observations: Surface and
Atmospheric Climate Change
4. Observations: Changes in
Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground
5. Observations: Oceanic Climate
Change and Sea Level
- Executive Summary
• Introduction
• Changes in Ocean Salinity, Temperature, Heat Uptake, and Heat
Content
• Biogeochemical Tracers
• Changes in Ocean Circulation and Water Mass Formation
• Sea Level: Global and Regional Changes
- Appendix: Techniques, Error
Estimation, and Measurement Systems
6. Paleoclimate
7. Couplings Between Changes
in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry
• Introduction to
Biogeochemical Cycles
• The Carbon Cycle and the Climate System
• Global Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change
• Air Quality and Climate Change
• Aerosols and Climate Change
• The Changing Land Surface and Climate
• Synthesis: Interactions Among Cycles and Processes
8. Climate Models and their
Evaluation
• Advances in Modeling
• Evaluation of Contemporary Climate as Simulated by Coupled Global
Models
• Evaluation of Large Scale Climate Variability as Simulated by
Coupled Global Models
• Evaluation of the Key Relevant Processes as Simulated by Coupled
Global Models
• Model Simulations of Extremes
• Climate Sensitivity
• Evaluation of Model Simulations of Thresholds and Abrupt Events
• Representing the Global System With Simpler Models
9. Understanding and Attributing
Climate Change
10. Global Climate Projections
• Introduction
• Projected Radiative Forcing
• Timescales of Response
• Climate Change to 2100 and Beyond
• Sea Level Projections
• Scenarios and Simple Models
• Uncertainties in Global Model Projections
11. Regional Climate Projections
• Introduction
• Evaluation of Regionalization Methods
• Alternative Simple Methods
• Projections of Regional Climate Changes
• Small Islands
• Uncertainties in Regional Projections
List of Authors and Reviewers
Index
OUTLINE FOR THE IPCC WORKING GROUP II CONTRIBUTION TO THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT
REPORT CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY
Summary for Policymakers
Technical Summary
Introduction
• Scope of this Assessment
• Relation to other reports and studies
A. ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED
CHANGES
1. Assessment of Observed Changes
and Responses in Natural and Managed Systems
• Methods in detection
and attribution of observed changes
- Data and methods in
observation of current and recent changes, including extremes
- Climate and non-climate drivers of change
- Exploring confidence in methods and results
• Systems and sectors
under investigation: observed changes including vulnerability and adaptation
- Cryosphere
- Hydrology and water resources
- Coastal processes and zones
- Terrestrial biological systems
- Freshwater and marine biological systems
- Agriculture and forestry
- Human health
- Aspects of socio-economic systems
- Disasters and hazards
• Larger scale aggregation
and attribution
- Regional aspects and
dimensions of the issue
- Relative sensitivity, resilience and adaptive capacity of different
systems
- Assessing the relation of observed changes in systems to regional
climate trends
- Assessing the relation of observed regional climate trends to anthropogenic
climate change
- Uncertainties and confidence levels
- Learning from current and recent observed adaptation
B. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS
AND ADAPTATION: SYSTEMS AND SECTORS
2. New Assessment Methodologies
and the Characterisation of Future Conditions
• New developments
in methods
- Resulting uncertainties
and confidence levels
• Characterising the
future: climate/other environmental/socio-economic assumptions
- Data requirements for
assessment
- Sensitivity analysis
- The development and application of scenarios including extreme events
- Stablisation scenarios
- Future requirements; caveats and uncertainties
Content
guide for subsequent chapters in section B:
1. Scope, key issues,
summary of TAR conclusions, specific methods
2. Current sensitivity/vulnerability:
to weather and climate (including extreme events); and to other
stresses; recent and current trends; current adaptation
3. Assumptions about
future trends: climate, development, technology, etc.
4. Key future impacts
and vulnerabilities
5. Costs and other socio-economic
aspects
6. Adaptation: practices,
options and constraints
7. Implications for
sustainable development
8. Key uncertainties,
confidence levels, unknowns, research gaps and priorities |
3. Fresh Water Resources
and their Management
• Water cycle: precipitation,
evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow cover
• Surface water: rivers, lakes, ice cover; quantity and quality
• Groundwater: extraction, salinisation; quantity and quality
• Water demand and use: agriculture, industry, energy, domestic
• Extreme events: floods, droughts and other precipitation events
4. Ecosystems, their Properties,
Goods and Services
• Grasslands and savannahs
• Forests and woodlands
• Deserts
• Tundra
• Mediterranean ecosystems
• Wetlands
• Freshwater lakes and rivers
• Mountains
• Oceans, shallow seas and their ecosystems
• Overall implications for biodiversity
5. Food, Fibre and Forest
Products
• Food-crop farming
• Livestock production
• Industrial crops and biofuels
• Forestry
• Fisheries: marine and fresh water; aquaculture and marine farming
• Global food trade and food security
• Subsistence systems, local food supply, regional employment
and rural livelihood
• Further environmental consequences with respect to: water use,
run-off, land use
6. Coastal Systems and Low-lying
Areas
• Natural systems,
including their services
- Wetlands, mangroves,
mudflats and coral reefs
- Deltas, estuaries and lagoons
- Beaches and cliffed coasts
- Atoll island systems
• Human society
- Water supply (including
aquifers)
- Agriculture, forestry and fisheries (including aquaculture)
- Human settlement, built infrastructure, industrial development;
migration
- Health
- Tourism/recreation
• Extra-coastal effects
on coastal environments
- Inland effects: freshwater
input and quality, sediment input
- Oceanic effects
7. Industry, Settlement, and
Society
• Industry: manufacturing,
construction, energy
• Services: retailing and trade, transport, tourism, insurance
and finance
• Utilities: water supply, energy, waste disposal
• Human settlement: urbanisation, urban design, planning, rural
settlement
• Social issues: demography, migration, employment, livelihood
and culture
8. Human Health
• Thermal stress
• Physical effects of extreme weather and climate events
• Synergies and interactions with environmental quality e.g. air
and water quality and aeroallergens
• Infectious diseases (including water- and vector-borne) and
changing distributions; emerging diseases
• Changes in food quality, food supply and nutrition
• Demographic, economic and social aspects of health
• Cumulative effects; multiple stresses
C. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS
AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS
Content
guide for chapters in section C:
1. Summary of knowledge
assessed in the TAR
2. Current sensitivity/vulnerability:
to weather and climate (including extreme events); and to other
stresses; recent and current trends; current adaptation
3. Assumptions about
future trends: climate, development, technology, etc
4. Summary of expected
key future impacts and vulnerabilities and their spatial variation
5. Adaptation: practices,
options and constraints and their spatial variation
6. Case studies
7. Implications for
sustainable development
8. Key uncertainties,
confidence levels, unknowns, research gaps and priorities |
Chapter 9: Africa
Chapter 10: Asia
Chapter 11: Australia and New
Zealand
Chapter 12: Europe
Chapter 13: Latin America
Chapter 14: North America
Chapter 15: Polar Regions (Arctic
and Antarctic)
Chapter 16: Small Islands
D. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES
TO IMPACTS
17. Assessment of Adaptation
Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity
• Methods and concepts:
vulnerability, resilience, adaptive capacity
• Assessment of current adaptation practices: current vulnerability,
risk management, local knowledge; adapting to current climate and other
stresses; policies and institutions
• Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints:
criteria for decision making; effectiveness; benefits and costs; limitations/barriers;
role of technology; links to development; equity issues
• Enhancing adaptation: opportunities; development and transfer
of technologies and know-how; constraints; adaptive learning
18. Inter-relationships between
Adaptation and Mitigation
• Elements for effective
implementation: determinants, capacities
• Objectives and decision processes: reducing sensitivity vs.
exposure; dealing with risk
• Scale issues: global, national, sectoral, local and project
levels
• Timing issues: timing of outcomes, including rates of change;
time discounting
• Differing roles of stakeholders: governments, private, civil
society
• Consideration of costs and damages avoided and/or benefits gained
• Synthesis of complementarities and differences between adaptation
and mitigation; mixes of strategies
• Uncertainties, unknowns, priorities for research
19. Assessing Key Vulnerabilities
and the Risk from Climate Change
• Methods and concepts:
issues relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC; reasons for concern; measuring
damage; identifying key impacts and vulnerabilities, and their risk
of occurrence
• Approaches to determining levels of climate change for key impacts
• Assessing key global risks
• Assessing key risks for regions and sectors
• Assessment of response strategies to avoid occurrence: stabilisation
scenarios; mitigation/adaptation strategies; avoiding irreversibilities;
role of sustainable development; treatment of uncertainty
• Uncertainties, unknowns, priorities for research
20. Perspectives on Climate
Change and Sustainability
• Summary of new knowledge
relating to impacts and adaptation
• Impacts and adaptation in the context of multiple stresses
• Implications for environmental quality
• Implications for risk, hazard and disaster management
• Global and aggregate impacts
• Implications for regional and sectoral development; access to
resources and technology; equity
• Sub-regional and local issues
• Opportunities, co-benefits and challenges for adaptation (including
over long term)
• Uncertainties, unknowns, priorities for research
List of authors, reviewers
Glossary
Index
OUTLINE
FOR THE IPCC WORKING GROUP III CONTRIBUTION TO THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Summary for Policy Makers
Technical Summary
A. INTRODUCTION AND FRAMING
ISSUES
1. Introduction
• Article 2 of the
Convention and mitigation
• Past, present, future, including previous IPCC reports
• Time scales
• Structure of the report, the rationale behind it, the role of
Cross Cutting Themes and framing issues
2. Framing issues
• The scope of the
global climate change problem
• Climate change mitigation and sustainable development
• Mitigation, vulnerability and adaptation relationships
• Regional dimensions
• Technology research, development, deployment, diffusion and
transfer
• Risk and uncertainty
• Distributional and equity aspects
• Cost and benefits concepts
• Decision making and implementation
| Regional
differentiation will be emphasized in all chapters in parts A, B,
C and D as far as literature is available. However, this regional
disaggregation may differ by sector and could be along different characteristics,
such as level of development, national circumstances or geographical
location. |
B. ISSUES RELATED TO MITIGATION
IN THE LONG-TERM CONTEXT
3. Issues related to mitigation
in the long-term context
• Emission scenarios:
assessment of new literature since SRES
• Mitigation and stabilization scenarios and strategies, and costs
and socio-economic implications (with appropriate uncertainties) including
multiple gases
• Development pathways, trends and goals
• Role of technologies in long-term mitigation and stabilization:
research, development, deployment, diffusion and transfer
• Interaction of mitigation and adaptation, in the light of climate
change impacts and decision making under long-term uncertainties
• Linkages between short and medium term mitigation and long-term
stabilization, including the implications of inertia, risk and uncertainty
for decision making
C. SPECIFIC MITIGATION OPTIONS
IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM
| Chapters
4-10 will follow the following template. Template issues will only
be incorporated when relevant and when literature is available.
• Introduction
• Status of the sector, development trends including production
and consumption, and implications
• Emission trends (global and regional)
• Description and assessment of mitigation technologies
and practices, options and potentials (technical, economic, market
and social), costs and sustainability
• Interactions of mitigation options with vulnerability
and adaptation
• Effectiveness of and experience with climate policies,
potentials, barriers and opportunities / implementation issues
• Integrated and non-climate policies affecting emissions
of greenhouse gases
• Co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies
• Technology research, development, deployment, diffusion
and transfer
• Long-term outlook / systems transitions, decision making;
inertia and its relation with long-term/short-term choices, decision
tools
|
4. Energy supply
5. Transport and its infrastructure
(road, rail, aviation, shipping, including transport fuels)
6. Residential/commercial (including
services)
7. Industry
8. Agriculture (including land
use and biological carbon sequestration)
9. Forestry (including land
use and biological carbon sequestration)
10. Waste management
D. CROSS SECTORAL, NATIONAL
AND INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS
11. Mitigation from a cross-sectoral
perspective
• Introduction, including
system perspective, relationship with chapter 3, key issues across sectors
and use of models/analysis
• Cross-sectoral mitigation options: description, characterization
and costs
• Technology research, development, deployment, diffusion and
transfer
• Synergies and trade-offs with other policies
• Overall mitigation potential and costs, including portfolio
analysis and cross-sectoral modeling
• Macroeconomic effects
• Spill-over effects
• Assessment of bottom-up and top-down analysis
• Mitigation and adaptation - synergies and trade-offs
12. Sustainable development
and mitigation
• Introduction
• Impact of mitigation policies on sustainable development goals
• Impact of sustainable development policies on climate change
mitigation
• Determinants of mitigative capacity (link to adaptive capacity
in Working Group II)
• Sustainable development and climate change mitigation - issues
and opportunities
13. Policies, instruments and
co-operative arrangements
• Economic and other
generic policy instruments (including taxes, emissions trading)
• Implementation of and interaction between policies
• Climate change agreements and other arrangements (including
international co-operation and insights from and interactions with other
inter-governmental arrangements)
• Insights from and interactions with private, local and non-governmental
initiatives
List of authors and reviewers
Glossary
Index |
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