Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve -
Guidelines for Release, 2008-09
The Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended, sets conditions for the release of the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve at the discretion of the President. The President may make the requisite finding of a "severe energy supply interruption" for the sale of product under two conditions:
- if there is "a dislocation in the heating oil market,"
or
- a circumstance exists (other than the defined dislocation) that is a regional supply shortage of significant scope and duration and the Reserve's release would significantly reduce its adverse impact.
The law deems a "dislocation" to have occurred only when -
- "The price differential between crude oil...and No. 2 heating oil...increases by more than 60% over its five year rolling average for the months of mid-October through March (considered as a heating season average)."
- The price differential continues to increase during the most recent week for which price information is available."
To establish a calculation methodology using available data sources, the Energy Information Administration has translated this legal definition of a dislocation into the following observable factors:
- The price differential between residential No. 2 heating oil in the Northeast and crude oil must be more than 60 percent greater than its 5-year rolling average for that month;
- The price differential must continue to exceed the 60-percent threshold for two consecutive weekly (Monday) observations (thus satisfying the 7-day requirement in the law); and
- The price differential must be increasing as of the most recent observation.
The weekly reports for this season to date, and the differential levels required to exceed the 60-percent threshold, are as follows:
|
(Cents per Gallon, Except Where Noted) |
|
Week
|
Residential Heating
Oil Price |
Average WTI
Crude Oil Spot
Price (Previous Week) |
Heating
Oil/
Crude
Oil
Differential
|
5-year
Average
Differential
|
Current
vs.
Average
Differential
|
Differential
Required
for
Release
|
|
PADD 1x
|
PADD 1y
|
Avg.
PADD
1x/1y
|
dollars
per
barrel
|
cents
per
gallon
|
|
10/06/08 |
362.9 |
369.4 |
366.2 |
96.59 |
229.98 |
136.2 |
85.7 |
58.9% |
137.1 |
|
10/13/08 |
335.8 |
341.6 |
338.7 |
86.24 |
205.33 |
133.4 |
85.7 |
55.7% |
137.1 |
|
10/20/08 |
318.8 |
327.3 |
323.1 |
75.19 |
179.02 |
144.0 |
85.7 |
68.1% |
137.1 |
|
10/27/08 |
299.3 |
313.8 |
306.6 |
68.56 |
163.24 |
143.3 |
85.7 |
67.3% |
137.1 |
|
11/03/08 |
294.2 |
307.0 |
300.6 |
65.21 |
155.26 |
145.3 |
91.2 |
59.4% |
145.9 |
|
11/10/08 |
288.5 |
302.7 |
295.6 |
64.31 |
153.12 |
142.5 |
91.2 |
56.2% |
145.9 |
|
11/17/08 |
278.1 |
292.4 |
285.3 |
58.60 |
139.52 |
145.7 |
91.2 |
59.8% |
145.9 |
|
11/24/08 |
266.7 |
280.5 |
273.6 |
52.26 |
124.43 |
149.2 |
91.2 |
63.6% |
145.9 |
|
12/01/08 |
265.4 |
276.7 |
271.1 |
53.27 |
126.83 |
144.2 |
96.5 |
49.5% |
154.3 |
|
12/08/08 |
247.9 |
260.2 |
254.1 |
45.60 |
108.57 |
145.5 |
96.5 |
50.8% |
154.3 |
|
12/15/08 |
244.8 |
256.9 |
250.9 |
44.57 |
106.12 |
144.7 |
96.5 |
50.0% |
154.3 |
|
12/22/08 |
239.3 |
249.7 |
244.5 |
39.70 |
94.52 |
150.0 |
96.5 |
55.5% |
154.3 |
|
12/29/08 |
231.6 |
241.1 |
236.4 |
32.98 |
78.52 |
157.8 |
96.5 |
63.6% |
154.3 |
|
01/05/09 |
237.0 |
244.3 |
240.7 |
41.07 |
97.79 |
142.9 |
96.8 |
47.6% |
154.8 |
|
01/12/09 |
243.5 |
253.3 |
248.4 |
44.46 |
105.86 |
142.5 |
96.8 |
47.3% |
154.8 |
|
01/19/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
96.8 |
|
154.8 |
|
01/26/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
96.8 |
|
154.8 |
|
02/02/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
97.1 |
|
155.3 |
|
02/09/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
97.1 |
|
155.3 |
|
02/16/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
97.1 |
|
155.3 |
|
02/23/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
97.1 |
|
155.3 |
|
03/02/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
96.4 |
|
154.2 |
|
03/09/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
96.4 |
|
154.2 |
|
03/16/09 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
96.4 |
|
154.2 |
Prior Years:
|
