Statistical Engineering Division
Seminar Series
Global Atmospheric Changes: Statistical trend analyses of
ozone and temperature data
George C. Tiao
The University of Chicago
The ozone layer in the stratosphere plays an important role in
the life cycle on earth. This is mainly because ozone absorbs
the harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun and prevents most
of it from reaching the surface. In recent years, there has been
considerable attention focused on the effect of the release of
chlorofluoromethanes on the ozone layer. There has also been an
intense interest in global warming due to man-made causes such as
the burning of fossil fuels.
In this talk we present findings of an extensive statistical
analysis of ozone and temperature data over the last thirty years
from networks of ground stations and from satellites. The
principal objectives of the analysis are (i) to assess trends
in ozone and temperature, and (ii) to compare the estimated trends
with predictions obtained from large-scale chemical/dynamical
models of the atmosphere. Some statistical issues related to
trend detection and analyses will also be discussed.
NIST Contact:
Walter Liggett, x-2851.
