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FiveThirtyEight

Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman stretches Sunday before a game against the New York Giants in Seattle.
Quarterback Brian Hoyer of the Cleveland Browns calls a play at the line of scrimmage during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday in Cincinnati.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, left, and Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning after a game Sunday in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots won 43-21.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez celebrates after throwing an 8-yard touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans on Sunday in Houston.
Washington players celebrate after defeating the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on Monday.
Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, left, and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick during a game Sunday in Denver. The Broncos won 42-17.
A Seattle Seahawks fan during the fourth quarter of a game between the St. Louis Rams and the Seahawks on Sunday in St. Louis. The Rams won 28-26.
Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning warms up before daily practice at Dove Valley in Englewood, Colorado on Oct. 9.
Tom Brady of the New England Patriots sets at the line of scrimmage against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday at Gillette Stadium  in Foxboro, Massachusetts.
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints in Dallas on Sunday.
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