Did Wendy Davis voter-registration efforts boost numbers in Texas? Survey says – not so much

Wendy Davis’ political blueprint depends in large part on an getting new voters registered, motivated and to the polls in the November governor’s race. Davis and allies at Battleground Texas promise an unprecedented voter-turnout program. Battleground Texas - which acts as Davis’ field operation - is the product of former Obama campaign operatives who are pledging to turn red-state Texas blue. My colleague Gromer Jeffers Jr. had a story Sunday about how both sides preparing for extensive voter outreach.

Getting new voters begins with registering new people. When the secretary of state last week announced a record-high 14 million Texans are registered to vote, Battleground Texas trumpeted that number as evidence their efforts are working. Not so much, it turns out, according to the actual numbers.

For example, voter-registration in the top five Democratic-rich South Texas counties where Davis expects to do well is up 5.8 percent from the last time there was a governor’s race – slightly better than the average statewide. But voter registration in five top GOP-rich suburban counties is up a whopping 13.8 percent.

The Davis camp hopes for a good showing in Dallas County and Harris County, especially among Democratic-leaning black and Hispanic voters. Dallas County voter registration is up about 5 percent from four years ago. Harris County is up over 6 percent. And voter registration in Travis County where Battleground Texas has a strong presence is up 8.4 percent.

But the real voter-registration increases this election are in suburban GOP strongholds like Fort Bend County (17.5 percent), Collin County (14.3 percent), Rockwall County (12.9 percent), Denton County (11.6 percent) and Williamson County (14.2 percent).

Does that mean Battleground Texas has failed to deliver on its much-ballyhooed promise to register new voters? Not necessarily. In the big South Texas counties they say they’ve targeted, the increase in registered voters is a lot better this year than four years earlier. For example, in Hidalgo County, voter registration is up 7.5 percent from 2010. Four years earlier, when Democrat Bill White was on the ballot, voter registration grew 5.9 percent in from 2006 to 2010. The same thing for Cameron County, where voter registration this time has grown twice as much as it did between 2006 and 2010, the last governor’s race.

Also, registration is only part of the picture. There are lots of voters who are registered but don’t vote — particularly Hispanic voters that Davis needs to win. The Davis political team promises to turn out a record number of those voters – in effect, to change the historic election patterns in Texas. Whether that happens, we’ll know on Election Day. In the meantime, word among some Davis allies is that Battleground Texas might be preparing to defend itself by suggesting they did their work, she was just a bad candidate.