Saturday Quiz – December 6, 2014

Welcome to the Billy Blog Saturday Quiz. The quiz tests whether you have been paying attention over the last seven days. See how you go with the following questions. Your results are only known to you and no records are retained.
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    Friday lay day – some home truths

    Its the Friday lay day. I thought I would share a few home truths with you that various people have alerted me to over the last week. Some interesting video viewing, while I get on with other things that have pressing deadlines. It has been quite a week in Australia. The national accounts showed we are barely growing in volume terms but in doing so our real net national disposable income growth has been negative for the last two quarters (a recession) with clear impacts of public austerity now evident. The Australian Treasurer claimed the national accounts vindicated their austerity position. Like a lot of politicians these days he trying to sell the impossible claim that cutting spending increases growth. In his case, he is also trying to tell the population that negative income growth is a positive thing and rising unemployment is a signal of policy success. Hockey claimed on the news this morning that “we have a terrific budget story to tell”. It is a strange politics.
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      The Cyprus confiscation becomes the model for bank insolvency

      I am still sifting through the documents from the recent G20 Summit in Brisbane to see what our esteemed leaders (not!) have planned as their next brilliant move to reinforce neo-liberal principles. One of the least talked about outcomes from the recently concluded G20 Summit in Brisbane were the agreed changes to the banking systems operating in the G20 nations. The dialogue started in the G20 Finance Ministers’ and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting in Washington in April 2014. Clause 8 in the official Communiqué covered the aim of the G20 “to end the problem of too-big-to-fail” and signalled the “development of proposals by the Brisbane Summit on the adequacy of gone-concern loss absorbing capacity of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) if they fail.” The Brisbane Summit would consider these proposals. The aim was to “give home and host authorities and markets confidence that an orderly resolution of a G-SIB without exposing taxpayers to loss can be implemented”. You won’t believe what they came up with.
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        Posted in Economics, Eurozone, US economy | 30 Comments

        Australian national accounts – growth plummets as policy fails

        In September, I wrote of the 2nd-quarter national accounts data that the economy was weak and getting weaker. The – September-quarter 2014 data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today confirms that prognosis. Weak is an understatement. Real GDP growth grew by by a miserable 0.3 per cent a further drop on the 0.5 per cent in the June-quarter 2013. The annualised growth rate of 2.7 per cent is being held up by the strong in late 2013 but something around 1.2 to 1.8 per cent per annum looking forward is a more realistic assessment of where the economy is at present. Despite a substantial fall in the terms of trade, net exports contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth while consumption contributed 0.4 points. A major decline in private and public investment shaved off 0.7 percentage points. Fiscal austerity is set to worsen, which means that the data paints a fairly gloomy picture for the Australian economy for the next year at least.
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          Posted in National Accounts | 5 Comments

          The inexact science of calibrating fiscal policy

          In the showdown between France and the European Commission last week, France clearly is the winner on points, which is not surprising given the impossibility of the task the Commission had set it in meeting the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) rules and the danger to the latter if France was to openly defy it. We have a sort of stand-off between the surrender monkeys – France is going along with the rules sort of and the Commission is bending the rules to save face. It is 2003 all over again. The public might actually think this EDP process is based on a fairly definite science with respect to measuring fiscal policy positions which provide unambiguous statements of deficits. The public would be very wrong if they did adopt that conclusion. In general, the applied work associated with informing the EDP process is very inexact. But, moreover, it is ideologically tainted which makes the process very damaging for any notion of prosperity. All applied work has measurement and other technical issues, which means it is always just an approximation. But when those errors are overlaid by a systematic bias against government net spending and therefore full employment, then the exercise becomes a scandal.
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            Posted in Debriefing 101, Economics, Eurozone | 8 Comments

            The Australian economics media guilty of false reporting

            The Australian Broadcasting Commission is undergoing dramatic cuts to its budget and shedding programs and valuable staff. The ABC office in Newcastle (Australia’s 7th largest city) has been downgraded to ‘regional’ status from metropolitan status to allow the government to cut its funding even further. It is curious that when they wanted to cut University funding they declared the University of Newcastle to be a metropolitan university and therefore not qualified to receive special regional bonuses. Where the ABC should cut staff, however, is in the area of economics and finance. They have become so inept at analysing what is going on that they are now just passive mouthpieces for private sector consulting firms who pump out macroeconomic nonsense weekly, which distorts the public debate. Today, the top ABC news story is – ‘Budget is burning’, warns top economist. It is a disgrace.
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              Posted in Economics | 14 Comments

              Saturday Quiz – November 29, 2014 – answers and discussion

              Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you work out why you missed a question or three! If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of modern monetary theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.
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                Saturday Quiz – November 29, 2014

                Welcome to the Billy Blog Saturday Quiz. The quiz tests whether you have been paying attention over the last seven days. See how you go with the following questions. Your results are only known to you and no records are retained.
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                  Friday lay day – real resources are available but not used, why?

                  Its Friday and I am writing a short blog only. A lot of people I meet find it hard to understand what a cost is in economics. They are too accounting oriented, in the sense that think a dollar sign on a piece of paper (such as a fiscal statement) represents a cost. In some contexts, it is sensible to think about dollars but when considering what a government should do, the only thing that really matters is the real resource cost. That may be calibrated in dollar terms but is not a monetary amount. In walking around three large Italian cities in the last week (Florence, Rome and Milan) I saw a lot of idle resources. The real costs of this idleness are massive – lost production, lost real income, lost lives. I saw many people not working and many others trying to scratch out an income selling trinkets on street corners. I also saw rubbish and urban decay everywhere such that the urban amenity was severely diminished. I didn’t see a shortage of productive jobs that could be done to improve the civic (public) parts of Italian life. But no-one was doing them. Why? The potential jobs were latent only because there was no-one willing to pay the idle workers to perform these productive tasks. That happens when there is a shortage of spending and has nothing to do with structural parameters.
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                    Posted in Friday | 11 Comments

                    The loaded language of austerity – but all the sinners are saints!

                    The US National Institute of Justice tells us that – Recidivism is “is one of the most fundamental concepts in criminal justice. It refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often after the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous crime”. You know murder, rape, theft, and the rest. According to the European Commissioner for digital economy and society and Vice-President German Günther Oettinger running a fiscal deficit above 3 per cent when you economy is mired in stagnation is a criminal act! This religious/criminal terminology is often invoked. German Finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble told the press before a two-day summit in Brussels in March 2010 on whether there should be Community support for Greece, that “an automatic system that hurts those who persistently break the rules” was needed to punish the “fiscal sinners”. This sort of language, which invokes metaphors from religion, morality and criminology is not accidental. Especially in Europe, where Roman Catholocism still for some unknown reason reigns supreme in society, tying fiscal deficits to criminal behaviour or sinning is a sure fire way of reinforcing the notion that they are bad and should be expunged through contrition and sacrifice. The benefits of fiscal deficits in circumstances where the non-government sector is saving overall are lost and the creation of the metaphorical smokescreen allows the elites to hack into the public sector and claim more real resources for themselves at the expense of the rest of us.
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                      Posted in Eurozone, US economy | 8 Comments