Big Ten tells its bowl teams one could be snubbed; is it likely?
That's because after Illinois's win over Northwestern the previous Saturday, the Big Ten has 10 bowl-eligible teams. Per ESPN and the Associated Press, a league official e-mailed the member schools to alert them to the possibility that one of those 10 teams could miss out on postseason play.
And given that the league's only 6-6 teams are Penn State and the Illini, it doesn't seem difficult to figure out which team would be in the biggest danger of being snubbed.
"Worst-case scenario, there will be nine spots for 10 teams. It could affect us," Illinois sports information director Kent Brown told the AP.
Yes, Illinois won the head-to-head matchup with the Nittany Lions and yes, it has a better conference record, 3-5 to 2-6. But Penn State is Penn State, and it's hard to see the Nittany Lions being left out in the cold.
"We got to six wins. We're eligible. If it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out," Illini quarterback Reilly O'Toole told Champaign radio station WSJK, per the AP. "We did our job."
The good news for the Illini: it appears they still have a decent chance of still snagging one of the last available bowl bids. The simplest way would be for Wisconsin to defeat Ohio State in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game -- a result that CBSSports.com's Jerry Palm projects would give the Big Ten three teams (the Badgers, Buckeyes and Michigan State) in the committee-assigned New Year's Six bowls. That, in turn, would leave seven slots for the league's seven remaining eligible teams and likely send the Illini to Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl.
Problems could crop up, however, if Ohio State wins or Wisconsin defeats the Buckeyes so handily the committee drops the Buckeyes out of the New Year's Six bowls. In the event only two Big Ten teams are invited to those bowls, eight teams would remain for the seven slots, and the Illini would be left hoping to become the "at-large" selection of a bowl with a slot left open by its affiliated conferences.
Even with more bowls available than ever in 2014, though, a surfeit of eligible teams means at-large slots look to be extremely rare this bowl season. With New Orleans Bowl executive director Billy Ferrante confirming this week that his bowl wasn't likely to "go beyond" its secondary partnership with Conference USA in the event the Mountain West is unable to send a representative, there could be only a single at-large opening across all 34 bowls: the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas.
The bowl's preseason agreements matched an AAC team against either Army or a Big 12 team, but the Knights sit at 4-7 and the Big 12 will not be able to fill its allocated slots. (Oklahoma State, at 5-6, is the only remaining Big 12 team that can still earn eligibility -- and it's a 21-point underdog at Oklahoma on Saturday). Armed Forces Bowl executive director Brant Ringler told CBSSports.com Friday that in the event his game did have an open slot, a Big Ten or SEC participant would bring a certain amount of "cachet."
But he also warned that like every other bowl outside the New Year's Six, his is playing a "waiting game" to see exactly how the initial dominoes fall -- and that until they do, nobody should be booking flights to Fort Worth just yet.
"We're going to look at all of our options," Ringler said.
The most appealing option for a bowl like Ringler's could be Florida. Like the Big Ten, if the SEC is limited to only two New Year's Six representatives rather than three, its 10 remaining eligible teams would exceed its nine remaining bowl slots. That would leave the 6-5 Gators (or possibly 6-6 South Carolina) as a "free agent" -- one that would no doubt be preferable to a team like, well, Illinois.
But again, there's good news for the Illini: it doesn't appear that both the Big Ten and SEC would have a spare team, since the team to benefit from Wisconsin or Ohio State failing to make the New Year's Six would most likely be Ole Miss. An invitation for the Rebels would give the SEC three New Year's Six bowls and send Florida (or South Carolina) to the Independence Bowl instead of the Armed Forces, leaving open the at-large slot for the Illini; if Wisconsin or Ohio State make the New Year's Six cut, the Illini would be in Detroit anyway and wouldn't need it.
Given that bowl agreements can have a certain amount of flexibility to them and that any number of surprising results could throw the whole current picture completely out of whack -- what happens if Kansas State beats Baylor? if Oklahoma State wins? if Boise State loses? -- it's fair to say the Big Ten and the Illini shouldn't feel safe by any means. But there's also no reason to panic just yet, either.
