Almost two-thirds of Israelis would prefer a prime minister other than Binyamin Netanyahu, according to a surprise new poll that suggests the incumbent may be more vulnerable than previously thought.
The survey for the Jerusalem Post and its Hebrew sister paper, Ma’ariv, was taken on Wednesday, a day after Netanyahu announced snap elections, and appears to undermine earlier polls that suggest his re-election will be straightforward. It also points to a complicated, febrile and unpredictable election campaign.
Asked whether they wanted Netanyahu to remain prime minister 60% of respondents said no, 34% said yes and 6% said they did not know. But the poll did indicate that the most popular party remains Netanyahu’s Likud – suggesting a gulf between the popularity of him and that of his party.
Ben Caspit, commenting on his paper’s poll in Friday’s Ma’ariv, is not surprised.
“The Netanyahu loyalists, his hardcore, still believe in him [...] The rest of the public, a large number of Israelis, does not want him.”
In large part, say some analysts, that has been driven by the mood music of the electorate. With peace efforts with the Palestinians frozen, the economy ever more in the doldrums and Israel feeling more isolated, a sense of despondency has crept in.
The new poll comes as it becomes clear that the election on 17 March is increasingly seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s time in office rather than, as he would like to frame it, an opportunity to find a stable governing coalition from the right. It also presents a rally cry for his opponents: “Anyone but Bibi” (Netanyahu’s nickname).
The same poll identified Israel’s economy as the biggest issue for voters, with security a close second, and with a majority of those asked believing that both had worsened under the current government.
The findings came amid a period of intense manoeuvring by Israel’s rival political parties to forge potential electoral alliances that would deliver the support of a minimum of 61 seats out of 120 required by any party leader to form a government.
The political conundrum for Netanyahu is that while he knows a right/far-right coalition would be easiest and most comfortable for him, there is evidence he is aware it might ultimately be unappealing to voters.
In 2013 when his bloc won 61 seats, he used that leverage to woo centrist parties to join him, sowing the seeds of his dysfunctional coalition that imploded this week.
What does seems likely, however, is that at the core of Netanyahu’s alliance will be Naftali Bennett – reportedly seeking the job of defence minister – and his far-right Jewish Home party. At current levels of predicted support that would only deliver just under 40 seats.
In addition, Netanyahu has been seeking to court the Haredi (ultra-orthodox Jewish) parties, which were excluded from the last government. They are furious about a popular new law to compel young Haredi men to do military service, as well as cuts in the large subsidies to religious schools and the imposition of science teaching in them.
It is widely expected that the cost of support of the Haredi parties would be the demand that the criminal sanction in the enlistment law – at the very least – be repealed.
But beyond those parties things become far less certain. Rumours have been swirling that other ex-members of Netanyahu’s collapsed coalition may join forces with the former Likud communications minister Moshe Kahlon, who is forming a new party.
Speculation suggests sacked finance minister and former television personality Yair Lapid and the foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, are among the possible defectors. All three are said to loathe Netanyahu and could potentially form the core of a right-centre “Anyone but Bibi” bloc.
The wildcard in the election campaign, Kahlon is an especially intriguing figure. A rightwinger, he made his reputation reducing mobile phone charges and is expected to run on the one issue that Israelis generally agree on – the country’s punitively high cost of living.
Likely to take votes from across the political spectrum, he is worrying to Netanyahu and Likud because he could potentially stop a right/far-right coalition getting a majority.
Another wildcard threat to Netanyahu comes from within Likud: former interior minister Gideon Sa’ar, who quit in October when his relationship with the prime minister soured after the latter’s efforts to prevent Reuven Rivlin becoming president failed. According to some reports Sa’ar is considering challenging Netanyahu for the leadership of Likud in party primaries in January. Sa’ar, 47, had been seen as a rising star in Likud and a likely successor to Netanyahu.
Moving to the left of the political spectrum, the story becomes more complicated. While polls suggest Labour would get about 14 seats, the Jerusalem Post/Ma’ariv poll suggests that given a choice between the party’s leader, Isaac Herzog, who is also leader of the opposition, and Netanyahu, both men garner about the same support.
Then there is the matter of the Israeli Arab parties – regarded as part of the left bloc in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Israeli Arabs, Palestinians who found themselves in what became Israel after the 1948-1949 war, account for about a fifth of the country’s 8 million population. Yet the parties that represent them hold less than a 10th of the seats owing to low turnout.
Now the leaders of the Knesset’s three Israeli Arab parties are talking about uniting and launching a get-out-the-vote campaign which – if successful - could also change the dynamics of the March election.
Finally there is a procedural and personal issue. It is Israel’s president who will invite a party leader to form a government despite Netanyahu’s failed effort to change that arrangement and also his efforts to prevent Rivlin from taking the post.
Perhaps in the end – if the election is closer than has been previously predicted – what will decide whether Netanyahu returns to the prime minister’s office will be the bridges he has burned and the enemies that he has made.
