Did the intelligence fail, or did President Barack Obama fail to heed the intelligence he received regarding the rising strength of Islamic State jihadists in Iraq and Syria? The evidence suggests the president consciously chose not to act despite months of warnings about the radicals’ mobilization.
In a 60 Minutes interview Sunday, Obama pointed to his director of national intelligence when asked whether he was surprised by the Islamic State’s seizure of so much Iraqi territory. “Our head of the intelligence community, Jim Clapper, has acknowledged that, I think, they underestimated what had been taking place in Syria,” he said.
Administration officials testified before Congress as far back as November that the Islamic State was threatening regional stability. By January, the Islamic State was drawing world headlines when its forces seized the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Fallujah.
On the Viewpoints pages of this newspaper in January, retired U.S. Army Capt. Allen Vaught, nicknamed the “mayor of Fallujah,” lamented the city’s fall to the Islamic State and questioned whether the sacrifices his troops made to oust insurgents were for naught.
On Monday, the White House sought to clarify that U.S. intelligence didn’t underestimate the jihadists’ formidable strength, but rather that no one predicted that the U.S.-trained Iraqi army would utterly collapse when the Islamic State uprising occurred.
Even that assertion is dubious. The United States has known for years how deeply divided Iraq’s security forces had become, largely because former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had gone to great lengths to strengthen the hand of Shiite-dominated military units while weakening Sunni forces who might challenge his grip on power.
On the eve of a visit by al-Maliki to Washington last October, a bipartisan group of U.S. senators urged Obama to take action. “The deteriorating conflict in Syria has enabled al-Qaeda in Iraq to transform into the larger and more lethal Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), which now has a major base for operations spanning both Iraq and Syria,” the letter warned.
Even al-Maliki recognized that government forces were losing control. In January, he begged the United States to help with helicopters, drones and military hardware to help them fight back.
There were no surprises here for anyone paying close attention. What’s clear from this short history is that the longer the international community takes to answer this threat, the harder victory will be.
Firm leadership is an absolute requirement to hold the anti-Islamic State coalition together, rally Arab ground forces to action, and ensure that the counterattack is sustained and relentless. Obama can no longer afford lapses in judgment or hesitant ruminations. This is his time to lead.
SURPRISE? WHAT SURPRISE?
A sampling of Dallas Morning News headlines from Iraq this year:
Violent Islamists filling power vacuum
Al-Qaeda, other radical groups flourishing in post-American Mideast (Jan. 5)
Extremists riding wave of momentum
Sunni jihadist gains in Syria, Iraq raise stakes in Mideast (Jan. 9)
Iraq seeking weapons, training from U.S.
Al-Maliki blames troubles on spillover from Syrian conflict (Jan. 17)
Anbar siege drags on as Iraqi army battles militants
Armed groups in region pose big challenge to al-Maliki’s government (April 2)
Militants rout Iraq city in big defeat for premier
Thousands flee Mosul as Islamists take prized area (June 11)
