College Football Playoff contenders' credentials

The credentials of the top two teams in the College Football Playoff rankings, Alabama and Oregon, entering conference championship weekend are strong enough that if they win their respective league titles, they can count on a place in the four-team field. But even with 14 weeks of résumé-building results, the other remaining Playoff contenders are facing varying degrees of uncertainty.

No. 3 TCU (10-1, 7-1 Big 12)

THE CASE FOR: TCU, uh, leapfrogged Florida State to No. 3 in Tuesday's final set of weekly CFP rankings. Though there's heated debate over whether TCU should be ranked ahead of No. 6 Baylor, which beat TCU 61-58 on Oct. 11 in Waco, Texas, the selection committee is clearly impressed with the Horned Frogs' credentials — and with the eye test. As committee chairman Jeff Long said: "We believe TCU's a better football team (than Baylor) at this point in time." The résumé includes wins against two currently ranked teams (No. 20 Oklahoma and No. 9 Kansas State) as well as a nonconference victory against Minnesota (8-4).

THE CASE AGAINST: There's not much of one. Their position ahead of unbeaten Florida State would seem to indicate the Frogs need only to beat Iowa State to make the Playoff. But like many of their peers, the résumé is flawed. Two weeks ago, TCU struggled to shed an upset bid by Kansas, winning 34-30. And there's that loss to No. 6 Baylor, if head-to-head is ever considered by the committee.

No. 4 FLORIDA STATE (12-0, 8-0 ACC)

THE CASE FOR: The defending national champion is the only undefeated team in the FBS. The selection committee will determine "best" teams using several criteria — you know, like "game control" (which Florida State hasn't exactly exhibited) — but winning has to remain the most important factor. An undefeated Power Five conference champion isn't getting left out of the field unless there are at least five undefeated teams from Power Five conferences. Beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship — even in another tight squeeze — and the Seminoles should be in the field.

THE CASE AGAINST: The Seminoles are unbeaten, but not impressive. If that's an unfair standard, so be it. But the schedule has not been daunting — it ranks No. 49 in the Sagarin ratings. Florida State has beaten two currently ranked opponents (Clemson and Louisville), but had to rally to beat both (though Winston sat out the Clemson game while suspended). The Seminoles have trailed six other opponents, as well. It's exciting, but it doesn't inspire confidence in how Florida State would fare against Playoff-quality teams. Although a loss Saturday would be their first, based on how the selection committee has ranked them, falling to Georgia Tech would almost certainly eliminate them.

No. 5 OHIO STATE (11-1, 8-0 Big Ten)

THE CASE FOR: If the Buckeyes beat No. 13 Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Championship, they'll have wins against two currently ranked teams (No. 8 Michigan State is the other), as well as a quality win against Minnesota. Ohio State lost quarterback J.T. Barrett to a broken right ankle last week — the second Buckeyes starting quarterback lost to injury this season. With third-team quarterback Cardale Jones running things, a win against Wisconsin would presumably show the depth and talent of the Buckeyes at every position, not just at quarterback.

THE CASE AGAINST: A Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech remains an anchor to the Buckeyes' hopes, especially when coupled with the perceived weakness of the Big Ten. But their biggest obstacle now — other than Wisconsin, of course — might be the selection committee. If Ohio State wins Saturday but isn't especially impressive — especially if Jones' play is pedestrian — the committee, which is charged with projecting the impact of injuries, might conclude the Buckeys no longer are a Playoff-quality team.

No. 6 BAYLOR (10-1, 7-1 Big 12)

THE CASE FOR: The Bears are locked into a perception battle with Big 12 rival TCU, but they compare favorably with the other contenders. They have two wins against CFP Top 25 opponents, including the win against the Horned Frogs, in which they rallied from a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Their second-best win is a 48-14 road win against No. 20 Oklahoma — the worst home loss for the Sooners in the Bob Stoops era. A win Saturday against No. 9 Kansas State, especially if it's a dominant performance, would be a powerful statement. Baylor would technically be co-champion of the Big 12 with TCU, but would have the head-to-head advantage.

THE CASE AGAINST: Baylor's nonconference schedule of Buffalo, FCS member Northwestern (La.) State and SMU is one of the worst in FBS (combined record: 11-23). That slate drags down the Bears' overall strength of schedule (No. 66, according to the Sagarin ratings, worst among the top seven teams in this week's CFP Top 25). The Bears lost by 14 points to West Virginia. Their most recent win wasn't impressive, a 48-46 escape against a Texas Tech team that finished 4-8.

No. 7 ARIZONA (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12)

THE CASE FOR: It sounds wild, but it might be as simple as this: Just win. Although Arizona is ranked No. 7, the Wildcats appear primed to jump into the Playoff field with a win against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game. The Wildcats have already done it once, winning 31-24 on Oct. 2 in Eugene. Arizona has won five of its past six games and is 3-2 against opponents currently ranked in the CFP Top 25. Its strength of schedule (No. 35) as measured by the Sagarin ratings ranks better than No. 4 Florida State (No. 49), No. 5 Ohio State (No. 60) and No. 6 Baylor (No. 66).

THE CASE AGAINST: With two losses, the Wildcats start from behind the other contenders. They're quality losses — to No. 25 USC (28-26) and No. 15 UCLA (17-7), but they're losses. When it comes to the "eye test," Arizona's performances have been uneven. The selection committee has clearly noted improvement over the course of the season, but back in September, the Wildcats escaped an upset bid by Texas-San Antonio and needed a Hail Mary to beat California.

THE CASE FOR THE LONG SHOTS:

No. 9 Kansas State (9-2, 7-1 Big 12): With a win against Baylor, the Wildcats (9-2, 7-1) would claim at least a share of the Big 12 title. If TCU (and several others lost), they might have a shot to move into the field.

No. 10 Mississippi State (10-2, 6-2 SEC): The Bulldogs have quality losses to No. 1 Alabama and No. 12 Ole Miss. But those are losses. Their biggest wins have faded in quality. After not winning their own division, the Bulldogs probably need four or five teams ranked ahead of them to lose.

No. 16 Missouri (10-2, 7-1 SEC): It's hard to see the SEC champion being left out of the inaugural playoff. But even a win over Alabama wouldn't be enough. The Tigers would need complete chaos from everywhere.

No. 13 Wisconsin (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten): Beating Ohio State wouldn't mean as much because Buckeyes are without quarterback J.T. Barrett. The Badgers' loss to Northwestern is probably a disqualifier.