Late change lent TCU schedule advantage over Baylor

As TCU and Baylor present their final performance for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee this weekend, fans and prognosticators are looking at every angle to see why the poll has so greatly favored the Frogs over the Bears in recent weeks.

Many have pointed to the team's differences in strength of schedule as a deciding factor, and 18 months ago, TCU very well could have wound up with non-conference slate that looked a lot like Baylor's.

It was only then that TCU scheduled its home-and-home series with Minnesota, giving the Horned Frogs a statistical advantage over Baylor in strength of schedule, and it came to be only because of the College Football Playoff.

Baylor agreed to the contracts for its out-of-conference games this season back in 2008. It played SMU, Northwestern State, and Buffalo, who have combined to go 11-23 at this point in the season.

"At the time those agreements were signed, Baylor had not been to a bowl game in 16 years. We try to honor our contracts relative to scheduling and things like that," said Baylor Executive Associate Athletic Director Nick Joos.

But the announcement of the College Football Playoff in June 2012 changed many other teams' thinking about scheduling.

In February 2013, the Big Ten decided its conference members would no longer schedule games against relatively inferior Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) teams. The University of Minnesota had been scheduled to play an FCS team - South Dakota State - in 2014, but followed the conference's wishes and began making arrangements to get out of the game.

Also in early 2013, Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby told the teams in his league that the College Football Playoff committee would be considering strength of schedule in their rankings and advised teams to look into strengthening their out-of-conference slate, TCU Athletic Director Chris Del Conte said.

TCU found themselves looking to upgrade its strength of schedule for the 2014 and 2015 seasons in the summer of 2013, and had a hole in their schedule in 2014 after an agreed to home-and-home series against LSU was reduced to one game at a neutral site.

The Horned Frogs found a dance partner in the University of Minnesota. TCU agreed to pay the fee that the Golden Gophers had contracted to pay South Dakota State, and the home-and-home series was inked between the teams.

"These conversations were all going on at the same time we were looking at the [College Football Playoff,]" Del Conte said.

Del Conte signed the series with Minnesota based on what TCU Football Coach Gary Patterson had told him upon the Frogs joining the Big 12 in 2011.

"I was thinking that Gary Patterson had said we would be prepared within three-to-five years to win a Big 12 championship," Del Conte said. "When we joined the conference, he said our starting 22 [players] were as good as anybody in the conference, but he needed three to five years to build depth. If your coach is telling you it's between three-to-five years, then it's my job to make sure they're prepared [in scheduling and providing appropriate facilities.]"

Baylor's Nick Joos said the Bears never considered attempting to change their schedule to bring in tougher opponents.

"The Big 12, with playing nine conference games, that gives you a pretty good strength of schedule for all 10 of our teams," he said.

If the Bears again find themselves on the cusp of the playoff in coming years, their out-of-conference games may again disappoint the playoff committee.

Next year, Baylor plays SMU, Lamar, and Rice in their out-of-conference games. In 2016, they play Northwestern State, SMU, and Rice. Joos pointed out that the Bears have signed a home-and-home series against Duke in 2017 and 2018.

TCU, meanwhile, has a game scheduled against a so-called "power five" opponent every year through 2021.

The NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams were divided into two groups in August, called the "power five" conferences - consisting of the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, ACC, and SEC - and the "group of five," which consists of the five conferences with smaller football programs.

Next year, TCU wraps up their home-and-home series at Minnesota before playing Stephen F. Austin and SMU. In 2016, TCU begins a home-and-home against Arkansas, follows that in 2018 and 2019 with a home-and-home against Ohio State, and then is set to play Cal in 2020 and 2021.

Del Conte said that is no coincidence.

"We'll [schedule] a member of the power five, a member of the group of five, and we'll have an FCS opponent," Del Conte said. "That's our current philosophy today, going forward."

Joos said the Bears are contractually locked in to their out-of-conference opponents through 2019 and that no one was exactly sure what the most important factors would be for the playoff committee.

"I think that right now, people are learning what the committee is going to study and what they're not going to study -- what's going to be important to them," he said. "And I don't know that anybody is going to have all the answers after this year. It's probably going to take a couple of years."

He said the Bears have "some other things in the hopper" for a few years down the road.

Del Conte said there was one more big reason TCU has been scheduling tough out-of-conference games in the coming years.

"[W]e want to have a great non-conference schedule for our fans, who have invested a lot of money in Amon Carter Stadium, and we want to bring in worthy non-conference opponents, welcome them to Texas, and show off our stadium," he said. "At the same time, we have an opportunity to play against great teams."

But this year, Minnesota's 8-4 record and one-week top 25 ranking has given TCU the edge in strength of schedule. The Sagarin ranking of strength of schedule says TCU has played the 33rd most difficult slate in the country this season so far to Baylor's 66th.

This Sunday morning, the committee will show how big a difference that makes when it releases its final rankings and announces the field for the first College Football Playoff.