Although full half-year numbers aren’t entirely in, Weld County’s oil production is about 34 percent higher than it was last year, and it shows all the signs of continuing to grow.

Total crude production across the state — of which Weld County is responsible for about 82 percent and growing — is headed toward last year’s record production, according to numbers from the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

But analysts believe crude oil coming out of the Denver-Julesburg Basin will continue to topple historic flows and even double in the next five years.

“I would be utterly shocked if this year’s production was not substantially ahead of last year’s record,” said Pete Stark, vice president of industry relations for IHS in Englewood, a global consulting firm. “That’s just my gut feel. And any of the operators would tell you” the same.

So far, the numbers are showing, at least through May, that Weld’s crude production is about 34 percent higher than it was at the same time last year. Preliminary production shows that through May, Weld produced 25.8 million barriers of oil, compared to 19.29 million last year at the same time.

Last year, the state hit an all-time production record of 64.4 million barrels of oil for the year, shattering the previous high of 58.6 million set in 1956. In 2013, Weld County crude production had swelled about 40 percent from the previous year.

Production numbers for this year continue to trickle into the COGCC for June and July, but each month this year has surpassed last year at the same time in some cases by close to 2 million barrels.

Natural gas production is running about 5 percent behind the same time last year, but analysts say that is likely because of an infrastructure shortage. Companies are working to pipe gas out of Weld as fast as possible, but pipeline capacity isn’t quite there yet. More pipelines are being built to handle the increasing demand, but when the takeaway system is constrained, operators either must slow down production or practice flaring, essentially watching profits go up in smoke.

At present, about 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day are coming out of the Wattenberg Field. Some say by 2019, that number will surpass 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, about half of what the Bakken in North Dakota is producing today. The Bakken ramped up just as fast, if not faster, than the DJ, analysts say, where operators are tapping tight shales, and using methods that are taking form here.

“If you look at what’s happening in other plays, and what producers are doing now, (500,000) seems ambitious, but in the context of shale plays, if you look at the ramp up in production historically, and see when producers unlock the basin, it’s a trajectory that’s not all that shocking,” said Adam Bedard, a longtime Denver crude market analyst.

Bedard said all he has to do is look at rig counts to see what he believes will be another record-setting year. The horizontal rig count grew from 10 in February 2012 to 55 today, Bedard said.

“If you look at new well starts, there’s about 120 new wells being drilled a month in Weld County,” Bedard said. And companies aren’t slowing down, or spending less.

Operators are hot on drilling in Weld County because the rate of returns are much better than areas where production is much higher, said Ryan Smith, a senior energy analyst with Bentek Energy in Denver. “What we’re seeing is the returns are phenomenal in the DJ,” Smith said. “It’s one of the highest rates of return plays in the country. It’s up there with economics in the Bakken and Eagle Ford. The DJ is interesting because the cost to drill a well here is much cheaper, mainly because it’s shallower and they’re not drilling as long of laterals as they are in other plays. The DJ is not getting high oil rates, but costs are cheaper here than other plays.”

A growing concern, however, is the pressure on infrastructure, Bedard said, which could slow production numbers.

“The pipelines and rail lines are getting full and unable to move the crude out of the basin,” Bedard said.

If operators can’t move their product, they may have to slow down until that capacity is here, or find a more expensive way to move it, such as trucking.

“You end up trucking it out of the basin, that tends to be the shock absorber there,” Bedard said.

The Pony Express pipeline is set to come on line next year, allowing about 90,000 barrels a day of Wattenberg production to move to Cushing, Okla., where oil is processed and shipped to market.

The White Cliff’s pipeline is at capacity, prompting the operators to gauge the field’s tolerance for a potential new line, Bedard said.

Bedard has started his own midstream company to take advantage of the basin’s growing needs to move crude.

“What you see is production grows, infrastructures catches up, and there’s excess capacity, then production grows again,” Bedard said. “It’s this cycle. But I see things opening up quite well in 2015... In late ’14 and early ’15, we’ll have the Pony Express, then have relief, then it gets tight again. ... You have these fits and spurts where supply leads capacity and they flip flop. At some point it gets figured out.”

Smith said the only caution he sees coming out of the DJ would be in the condensate market. Condensate is an extremely light crude — lighter than the sweet crude that operators in the DJ are used to seeing — that’s growing in abundance in some fields, and in quantities that haven’t been seen historically.

When refined it creates a different product, and one that is not as high in demand as those refined from heavier crudes, Smith said. Some reports show that condensate is often used to lighten or dilute heavier crude that is so heavy it cannot be transported via pipelines.

U.S refineries, such as the Suncor refinery in Commerce City, are set up to handle the heavier crudes, Smith said.

Some areas, such as the Eagle Ford and the DJ, already are producing larger quantities of the condensates, Smith said.

“If we do see an oversupply of condensate in the U.S. market and there isn’t a place to go, that would effectively cause it to be discounted,” Smith said. “That could be a problem that would slow producers down.”

He added, “It’s not a huge issue here. Maybe 5 to 10 percent production is condensate here, and in the Eagle Ford, it’s close to 50 percent. That could be a red flag for a slow down here.”

Policymakers in Washington, however, made some moves to open up condensate markets overseas, according to the Wall Street Journal. In June, the U.S. Department of Commerce, WSJ reports, granted two Texas energy companies permission to sell condensate abroad, opening up a potential new market.

Smith said Bentek is forecasting oil prices to remain stable, keeping the market strong.

“Our forecast is for oil to stay around $80-$90 a barrel for the next fives years,” Smith said.

Bedard added: “This has been one of the longest sustained booms. It probably doesn’t have the staying power of the natural gas phenomenon. The natural gas reserves that have been unlocked are massive. The oil is 30 new years of supply and gas is 100. That’s how I’d put it.”