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FiveThirtyEight

Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins during a Thursday night football game against the New York Giants in Landover, Maryland on Sept. 25. The Giants defeated the Redskins 45-14.
San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Randy Moss talks with reporters on Thursday, Jan. 31, 2013, in New Orleans.
Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose fakes Detroit Pistons forward Greg Monroe and then makes a pass during the second quarter of a game Monday at the United Center in Chicago.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer leaves the field after injuring his left knee against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday in Glendale, Arizona.
Quarterback Brian Hoyer of the Cleveland Browns calls a play at the line of scrimmage during the fourth quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday in Cincinnati.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, left, and Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning after a game Sunday in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Patriots won 43-21.
In this June 3, 1993, file photo, Alex Rodriguez listens on the telephone as the Seattle Mariners ask him to join their team as the No. 1 pick in the baseball draft.
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez celebrates after throwing an 8-yard touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans on Sunday in Houston.
The San Francisco Giants celebrate after Game 7 of baseball's World Series as Kansas City Royals' Alex Gordon walks off.
LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers gets introduced before a game against the New York Knicks on Thursday in Cleveland, Ohio.
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