Latest Seasonal Assessment - Since the previous outlook issued during mid-September, drought improvement occurred across Arizona and New Mexico with intensification across Oklahoma and Texas. Drought intensity remained steady across California where nearly 60 percent of the state is designated as exceptional drought (D4) by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The drought outlook valid from October 16, 2014 through January 31, 2014 is based primarily on initial conditions, the CPC November-January precipitation outlook, El Niño precipitation composites, and climatology. Heavy rain during mid-October and enhanced odds for above-median precipitation forecast for NDJ likely favor removal across the eastern U.S. The broad area of drought improvement or removal forecast for southern California, the Southwest, and southern Great Plains is consistent with the NDJ precipitation outlook and El Niño precipitation composites. Coastal northern California is expected to experience improvement, most likely in December or January, as this region enters a very wet time of year. Persistence is forecast across the remainder of California including the Sierras. The potential for slow drought recovery exists later in the winter and early spring for the Sierras with snowfall a critical factor. Drought development is expected across interior parts of the Pacific Northwest where a dry signal during El Niño winters exists.

The small drought area in Puerto Rico is expected to persist since December and January are relatively dry months. The removal forecast for ongoing drought in Hawaii is related to expected rainfall from Ana.

Forecaster: B. Pugh

Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: November 20, 2014 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion