Exxon Mobil 2012 Energy Outlook
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Exxon Mobil 2012 Energy Outlook

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Economics and energy manager Rob Gardner of ExxonMobil's corporate strategic planning department presented their 2012 Outlook.

Economics and energy manager Rob Gardner of ExxonMobil's corporate strategic planning department presented their 2012 Outlook.

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  • 1. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Rob Gardner May 22, 2012This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changesin technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting FutureResults" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobils internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data andanalyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permissionof Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Demographic Shifts Alter Demand ProfileBillion2.0 OECD China India Africa1.61.2 Age 65+0.8 Age 15 – 640.4 Age 0 – 140.0 2010 2040Source: World Bank
  • 3. Global Progress Drives Demand Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs 21 120 1400 Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040 2010 – 2040 18 0.8% 2.9% 1200 0.9% 100 15 1000 80 Energy Saved 12 800 ~500 60 9 600 40 6 400 Non OECD 20 3 200 OECD 0 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 4. Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand Non OECD GDP Non OECD Demand Trillion 2005 $ Quadrillion BTUs 50 500 Rest of Non OECD Rest of Non OECD 40 Russia/Caspian 400 Africa Russia/Caspian Middle East Africa 30 300 Latin America Middle East India Latin America 20 200 India 10 100 China China 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 5. Electricity Generation Leads Growth Quadrillion BTUs 300 250 200 Electricity Demand 150 2040 2025 2010 100 50 0 Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity GenerationExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 6. Electricity Generation +80% By 2040, worldwide electricity demand will be 80% higher.ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 7. Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector Fuel Into Electricity Generation k TWh Quadrillion BTUs 35 300 Transportation Renewables 30 Wind 250 25 200 Nuclear 20 Residential/Commercial 150 Coal 15 100 10 Industrial 50 Gas 5 Oil 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 8. Electricity Demand Continues to Surge Baseload, Startup 2030 Fuel Into Electricity Generation 2011 cents/kWh Quadrillion BTUs 20 300 Renewables $60/ton CO2 Wind 250 15 200 Nuclear 10 150 Coal 100 5 $0/ton CO2 50 Gas Oil 0 0 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind * 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 9. Electricity Supply Varies Globally United States Europe China k TWh k TWh k TWh 8 8 8 6 6 6 Gas w/ CCS 4 Gas 4 4 Coal w/ CCS 2 2 2 Coal Nuclear Wind Oil Other Renewables 0 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040 * Generation by TypeExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 10. Transportation 90% By 2040, 90% of transportation will run on liquid petroleum-based fuels.ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 11. Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth Commercial Personal MBDOE MBDOE 50 50 Rail 40 40 Marine 30 30 Aviation 20 20 Heavy Duty Light Duty Vehicles 10 Vehicles 10 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 12. Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 Million Vehicles On-Road MPG 1750 80 2020-2025 Target 2015 Target 1500 70 60 1250 Rest of Non OECD 50 1000 China 40 750 30 2010 United States 500 20 250 10 Rest of OECD 0 0 2000 2020 2040 US Europe China Japan IndiaExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 13. Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 Million Vehicles On-Road MPG 1750 80 2020-2025 Target 2015 Target Natural gas/LPG 1500 70 PHV/EV 60 1250 Hybrid 50 1000 Conv. Diesel 40 750 30 2010 500 Conv. Gasoline 20 250 10 0 0 2000 2020 2040 US Europe China Japan IndiaExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 14. Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 500 2010 400 Advanced* CNG LPG 300 Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 200 100 0 North Europe Other OECD China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD America OECDExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
  • 15. Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 500 2025 400 Advanced* CNG LPG 300 Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline 200 100 0 North Europe Other OECD China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD America OECDExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
  • 16. Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles 500 2040 400 PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG 300 LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv 200 100 0 North Europe Other OECD China India Middle East Latin Other Non America OECD America OECDExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy *Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles
  • 17. Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel OECD Non OECD MBDOE MBDOE 50 50 40 40 Fuel Oil 30 30 Other Jet Fuel 20 Biodiesel 20 Diesel 10 10 Ethanol Gasoline 0 0 1990 2015 2040 1990 2015 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 18. Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs 250 0.9% 0.7% Average Growth / Yr. 2040 200 2010 - 2040 1.6% 2010 150 -0.2% 100 2.2% 0.3% 50 6.0% 1.6% 0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar / Hydro / Geo BiofuelsExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 19. CO2 Emissions Plateau By Region Emissions per Capita Billion Tons Tons per Person 40 20 2010 30 Rest of Non OECD 15 2025 India & Africa 2040 20 10 China 10 5 OECD 0 0 1990 2015 2040 U.S. Europe China IndiaExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 20. Supply By 2040 60% of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 21. Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify Liquids Supply Resource * MBDOE TBO 120 5 Biofuels 100 NGLs 4 Deepwater Remaining 80 Tight Oil Resource Oil Sands 3 60 2 40 Conventional Crude and Condensate Cumulative 1 Production 20 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040 * Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content wasExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy authorized in advance by IHS.
  • 22. Global Gas Resource 8.1 • World: ~250 years coverage at current demand • Large unconventional gains anticipated 4.8 1.3 4.9 Europe OECD North America Russia/Caspian* 4.11000 TCF 30 2.3 25 Middle East Unconventional 2.6 20 Africa Asia Pacific 15 10 Conventional Latin America 5 0 WorldSource: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD
  • 23. Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases Production by Type Demand by Region BCFD BCFD 600 600 Conventional Rest of Non Unconventional OECD 500 500 Russia/Caspian 400 400 Middle East 300 300 AP Non OECD 200 200 Rest of OECD 100 100 North America 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 24. Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2025 By Type BCFD LNG 45 Pipeline Local Unconventional Local Conventional 30 15 0 -15 -30 North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ CaspianExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 25. Global Gas Supply Growth 2025 to 2040 By Type BCFD LNG 45 Pipeline Local Unconventional Local Conventional 30 15 0 -15 -30 North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ CaspianExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 26. REGIONAL SNAPSHOTSExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 27. North America Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 125 125 Other Renewables Res/Comm Biomass 100 100 Nuclear Industrial Coal 75 75 Electricity Gas 50 Generation 50 25 25 Oil Transportation 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 28. Latin America Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 50 50 Res/Comm 40 40 Other Renewables Biomass Industrial Nuclear 30 30 Coal Gas 20 20 Electricity Generation 10 10 Oil Transportation 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 29. Europe Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 100 100 80 80 Other Renewables Res/Comm Biomass 60 Industrial 60 Nuclear Coal 40 40 Gas Electricity Generation 20 20 Oil Transportation 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 30. China Energy Demand and Supply By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 150 150 Other Renewables Res/Comm 125 125 Biomass Nuclear 100 Industrial 100 Coal 75 75 50 Electricity 50 Generation Gas 25 25 Oil Transportation 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
  • 31. Energy Use Evolves Over Time Global Percent Mix of Fuels Percent Other Renewables 100 Nuclear Hydro 80 Gas 60 Oil 40 20 Coal Biomass 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2040Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)