After The Mid-Term Elections: What’s Next?

November 11th, 2014 by Guest Contributor

Originally published on Union of Concerned Scientists.
By Ken Kimmell

While the mid-term elections headlines naturally focus on the change in leadership in the U.S. Senate, nothing in the results should change anyone’s mind on these clear truths: we know Americans trust science, support cutting global warming emissions, and want help for communities struggling with the very real consequences of climate change.

The fact is, history shows that by the sixth year of a two-term president’s tenure, the party out of power almost always makes strong gains. The gains here (a pick up of seven senate seats as of this writing) are in line with past elections (democrats picked up 13 seats during President Eisenhower’s 6-year mark, 8 during President Reagan’s, and 8 during President George W. Bush’s). And if exit polls are to be believed, voters were registering their concerns about the economy and dissatisfaction with aspects of the Obama Administration that have nothing at all to do with our science-based agenda that focuses on climate change impacts, promoting renewable energy, clean vehicles, healthy food, and nuclear safety.
US-capitol-building-blog-feature-image

Clear accountability

So what are the implications? One shift is that a divided House and Senate made it easy for politicians to ignore pressing issues and point the fingers of blame at one another. Now, with one party holding a majority in both houses, voters will rightly hold that party responsible for governing, and expect progress, not excuses. So there may be surprising opportunities for progress rather than merely gridlock and lack of accountability.

But there is no sugarcoating this: a more likely result is a heightened risk of “backsliding” on a range of important issues. For example, we’re likely now to see Congressional attempts to delay or repeal rules we are fighting for, such as limits on global warming emissions from power plants or requirements that school lunches include more fruits and vegetables. And these won’t always be easy for the President to veto away—especially if they are attached to “must-pass” appropriations bills.

Congress may also now try to pass laws that handicap our agencies from using the best science to guide decision making, such as the misnamed “Sound Science Act.” And the gridlock we have seen for the past four years may get worse—with more government shut downs, spurious “investigations,” brinkmanship, and inconsequential haggling that divert us from pressing problems we face.

A path forward

The Union of Concerned Scientists has a longstanding reputation for developing and implementing practical science-based solutions to many of the world’s most pressing problems. In the months to come, we plan to:

Explore opportunities for progress. We’re looking for partners to get things done. Some clean energy bills, for example, have overwhelming bi-partisan support, and we will be pushing sensible measures to increase energy efficiency and boost renewable energy. If the new majority is interested in securing some victories, as opposed to just sending bills to the president that they know he will veto, these are appealing possibilities.

But prepare for the worst. If the new Congress does try to roll back protections on clean air, public health, food safety, or other fronts, we stand ready to lead a broad coalition to foil those efforts, knowing that getting new laws passed is always difficult and there are many ways to stop bad legislation. Also, if Congress overreaches, such as by harassing federal agencies through bogus investigations or passing laws that tie scientists’ hands, we will aggressively call out these actions, using them as “teachable moments” to promote the essential role of science in government decision making.

Keep administrative actions moving forward. We’ll push the Obama administration to take action without Congress on crucial issues such as limits on global warming pollutants from power plants, taking nuclear weapons off dangerous “hair trigger” alert, and fuel economy standards to ensure that big-rig trucks and delivery vans can go farther on a gallon of gas.

Ramp up our state and local work. Finally, we are working now to expand our presence in cities and state capitals, where so much progress has been made in recent years, and so much more can be done to ramp up renewable energy, put in place measures to make communities more resilient to climate change, and create local programs to increase access to healthy foods. We know we have to build demand for policies that address climate change, and we will ramp up our efforts to focus attention on the local impacts of global warming. Connecting these impacts to people’s daily lives is the best way to persuade and mobilize. With successes at the state and local level on these and other issues, we can help create a tipping point for action at the national level.

None of this will be easy. The election results require all of us to step up our game, think even more creatively and strategically, and learn how to work more effectively with those who don’t always agree with us. But I can assure you of this: we can and will defend the important gains we have made over the past several years and, as UCS has always done, will continue to find innovative ways to effect change.

Reprinted with permission.

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Tags: clean energy, Congress, mid-term elections, Science, Union of Concerned Scientists

About the Author

Guest Contributor is many, many people. We publish a number of guest posts from experts in a large variety of fields. This is our contributor account for those special people. :D

http://www.energyquicksand.com/ Edward Kerr

One thing that climate change makes perfectly clear is that the future will not be like the past. Comparing six years house and senate changes in the past bear no resemblance to today, at least in terms of what we can expect going forward. Somehow we have allowed the inmates to take control of the asylum and they have already shown just how insane they are.

This setback (yes the idiots are going to gut the EPA and continue to support the fossil fuel industry regardless of what ‘we the people’ want) may be enough to assure the very worst outcome imaginable. Better lather up your butt holes with lubricant boys and girls because we are in for the fucking of our lives.
- Bob_Wallace
  
  We have the option of making it limit the damage to only two years.
  
  If the people who care about the planet show up to vote in 2016 we can take back the Senate and hold the White House. The road to also taking over the House would be difficult.
  
  I’m not sure that Congress can gut the EPA. They certainly can keep the EPA’s power from advancing and they might be able to trim the budget a little. But don’t forget, PBO has the ability to veto and Republicans do not have enough votes to override vetoes.
  
  One thing we’ve learned about PBO is that he plays the long game very well. I expect that during his first two years in office when Democrats had control of Congress some thoughtful people gamed out the six years during which Republicans might control one or both houses of Congress. Then, during PBO’s first term, they stockpiled enough ammo to last the war.
  
  The Republicans will soon vote (for the 40th time) to kill Obamacare. The veto pen is already warmed up.
  
  Then they’ll vote some asinine legislation to turn back environmental protection. Veto.
  
  In the meantime look for the EPA to tighten down on CO2 and methane emissions.
  - http://www.energyquicksand.com/ Edward Kerr
    
    I hope that you’re right Bob but I have my doubts. We’ll know soon enough!
    - Bob_Wallace
      
      First we’ll have a period of entertainment by the Republican Theater Company.
      
      Their first act will consist of passing legislation to repeal Obamacare for the 40th time. The difference from the previous 39 bills is that this bill will make it through the Senate only to be stabbed to death in the Oval Office.
      
      Expect much weeping, waling, gnashing of teeth and a few Fox phony-news readers to pee their pants.
      
      Then expect Republicans to put forth a budget that severely cuts social programs, the EPA and about everything else but military funding. And their own salaries.
      
      That should be greeted by a message from PBO to the effect that if they want to destroy the government then just don’t waste people’s time, pack your bags and go home. Sending up a budget that is so out of whack with what Americans want is nothing but a waste of time on your part.
      
      This back and forth is likely to continue for a while. Perhaps the first year. Then Republicans will decide it’s time to pass some very minimal bills so that they can run on their “success” in 2016.
      
      Look!!! We raised the minimum wage!!!” (From $7.25 to $7.26.)
      - http://www.energyquicksand.com/ Edward Kerr
        
        I expect that their arrogance will do them in. Due to their racist hate for the prez they are very likely to attempt (or do) something so outrageous that 2016 will be out the window. My main concern is the damage that they are likely to do to the environment resisting the need to abandon fossil fuels ASAP. It’s the first time in my existence that these bozos have actually scared me.
      - Bob_Wallace
        
        Perhaps the Republicans will be more creative than I suspect them capable, but my guess is that they will try ham-handed moves that PBO will block.
        
        They can pass but PBO can veto.
        
        They can impeach in the House but there’s not enough votes in the Senate to convict.
        
        Without a very creative move I don’t see how they save the 25% coal capacity that’s now on the chopping block. Wind is OK without subsidies and solar has subsidies for the next couple of years. Most car companies have a lot of their 200,000 car allowance left to be used.
        
        Seems to me that wind, solar and EVs are on autopilot. Money is being tossed at storage by the private sector (long before we need large scale storage).
        
        Increasing mileage regs for autos are baked in. Incandescent bulbs are going away. Companies now largely understand the value of efficiency.
        
        The bad I see is that there will likely be nothing to speed up the process, but the process will still likely move along at a decent pace.
        
        Anything bad they try to pull can be blocked with the veto.
        
        I’m just not seeing a dark side. All I’m seeing is less than optimal progress for a while.
        —
        
        There’s one wild card that needs consideration. McConnell is 72 and will be 78 at the end of his term. He’s never expressed a desire to be president but a large desire to be Majority Leader in the Senate. This is his opportunity to build his legacy which, up to now, is that of a pile of dirt at the end of a closed road.
        
        He’s got the choice of continuing to resist everything PBO wants to do for the next two years or start compromising and put something positive on the books.
        
        McConnell might want a major piece of legislation with his name on it. He might be willing to play ball in order to get something his side wants.
        
        Horsetrading might occur.
      - http://www.energyquicksand.com/ Edward Kerr
        
        Bob,
        I agree that good things ‘could’ happen but I don’t want to grasp at straws. If the president doesn’t stand up or the GOP somehow takes the WH along with both houses in ’16 it would be another nail in our coffin.
        
        What I find most depressing is that we are being forced to have this conversation at all instead of being well on our way to solving this massively important issue. It’s like we are confronted with a “cosmic intelligence test” and we’re asking the the dumbest kids in the class to answer the questions. Failure cannot be an option..
        Regards,
        Ed
      - Bob_Wallace
        
        2016 is 2016 and we need to make sure Republicans don’t take over the administration and control all three branches of the government.
        
        If young voters stay away from the polls in 2016 as they did in 2014 they will hurt themselves. There’s not much I can see to do but to warn them. If they stay home and the older voters decide the races then the youngs will have dealt themselves a very difficult hand.
Jack Leonard

This is wishful thinking. Congressional Repugs will be able to pass bills that hamstring the EPA on one hand, and offer some token concession to the greens in the House. It will then either be filibustered in the Senate, or vetoed by the Pres. That will give the Repugs a credible enough claim that the Dems are up to their old plot to discredit the poor innocent GOP that enough of the public may buy into their BS.

If speculation like the expectation that Inhoff will head the Senate Environmental Committee is correct, we can expect no real progress on environmental or renewable energy to come out of the incoming Congress–and the possibility that the Repugs will take the presidency and a super majority in the Senate in 2016.
- JamesWimberley
  
  Fine until the last sentence. The Democratic electorate for some strange reason reliably shows up in Presidential election years and not mid-term years. The Democrats will have a lot going for them: demographic changes; an improved economy (touch wood); continued success of ACA (even if SCOTUS buys the whackjob King suit and invalidates subsidies on the federal exchanges, the localised chaos is unlikely to benefit Republicans); a GOP candidate weaker even than Mitt Romney; and, sadly, a white Democratic candidate. As for a GOP supermajority in the Senate, I start to wonder about heavy abuse of controlled substances.
  - David in Bushwick
    
    And you lost me in the last sentence. It’s going to be a very messy next two years. Obstruction has served the 1% very well so it’s possible more of nothing will happen. But gerrymandering, voter suppression and a disgusted voting public could mean more Repugs next time. The results of the 2020 Census will be after that election so things don’t look so good.

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